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PreprintCited by 11COVID-19 epidemiological studiesHuman Mobility and Location-Based AnalysisCOVID-19 Prevention and Impact

The Social Divide of Social Distancing: Lockdowns in Santiago during the COVID-19 Pandemic

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Carranza, Aldo, Goic, Marcel, Lara, Eduardo, Olivares, Marcelo, Weintraub, Gabriel Y., Covarrubia, Julio, Escobedo, Cristian, Jara, Natalia +1 more·2020·SSRN Electronic Journal
DOI 10.2139/ssrn.3691373
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Abstract

Voluntary shelter-in-place directives and lockdowns are the main non-pharmaceutical interventions that governments around the globe have used to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. In this paper we study the impact of such interventions in the capital of a developing country, Santiago, Chile, that exhibits large socioeconomic inequality. A distinctive feature of our study is that we use granular geolocated mobile phone data to construct mobility measures that capture (1) shelter-in-place behavior, and (2) trips within the city to destinations with potentially different risk profiles. Using panel data linear regression models we first show that the impact of social distancing measures and lockdowns on mobility is highly heterogeneous and dependent on socioeconomic levels. More specifically, our estimates indicate that while zones of high socioeconomic levels can exhibit reductions in mobility of around 50\% to 90\% depending on the specific mobility metric used, these reductions are only 20\% to 50\% for lower-income communities. The large reductions in higher-income communities are significantly driven by voluntary shelter-in-place behavior. Second, also using panel data methods we show that our mobility measures are important predictors of infections: a 10\% increase in mobility correlates with approximately a 5\% increase in the rate of infection. Our results suggest that mobility is an important factor explaining differences in infections rates between high and low incomes areas within the city. Further, they confirm the challenges of reducing mobility in lower-income communities, where people generate their income from their daily work. To be effective, shelter-in-place restrictions in municipalities of low socioeconomic levels may need to be complemented by other supporting measures that enable their inhabitants to increase compliance.

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  • The mobility result is consistent with analyses of New York City neighborhoods and with findings from other studies conducted in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and mobility metrics.

    “Our result is consistent with analyses of New York City neighborhoods (11) and with findings from other studies conducted in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and mobility metrics (12–14).”

    From Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile (2021) · cites this paper as [12]

  • The study's results are consistent with other studies in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and movement measurements.

    “Although Facebook mobility data can be biased in this way, our results are consistent with other studies in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and movement measurements [see (12–14) and supplementary materials].”

    From Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile (2021) · cites this paper as [12]

  • Recent studies in Chile have suggested a link between SES and the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as stay-at-home orders.

    “In Chile, recent studies have suggested a link between SES and the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as stay-at-home orders (12, 13, 29).”

    From Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile (2021) · cites this paper as [12]

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Authors
Carranza, A., Goic, M., Lara, E., Olivares, M., Weintraub, G. Y., Covarrubia, J., Escobedo, C., Jara, N., & Basso, L. J.
Affiliations
  • Stanford University (US)
  • University of Chile (CL)
  • Natel Energy (United States) (US)
  • Complex Engineering System Institute (CL)
Corresponding author
Weintraub, Gabriel Y.
ORCID
Venue
SSRN Electronic Journal
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2020
ISSN
1556-5068 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.2139/ssrn.3691373
OpenAlex
W3092997008
Cited by
11
References
38
Citations by year
2024: 2 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 1
Type
posted content
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Social Sciences › Transportation › Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
Keywords
COVID-19 lockdown, social distancing, shelter-in-place, socioeconomic disparities, urban mobility, mobile phone data, infection rate, income inequality, non-pharmaceutical interventions, Santiago de Chile

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