The DOI matches its Crossref record; 52 of the 54 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 6 of the 48 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
Open accessAbstract
Summary Background Although stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide, no comprehensive and comparable assessment of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, and epidemiological trends has been estimated for most regions. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and WHO regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR), based on disease-specific, pre-specified associations between incidence, prevalence, and mortality, to calculate regional and country-specific estimates of stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost by age group (<75 years, ≥75 years, and in total) and country income level (high-income, and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010. Findings We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). From 1990 to 2010, the age-standardised incidence of stroke significantly decreased by 12% (95% CI 6–17) in high-income countries, and increased by 12% (–3 to 22) in low-income and middle-income countries, albeit non-significantly. Mortality rates decreased significantly in both high income (37%, 31–41) and low-income and middle-income countries (20%, 15–30). In 2010, the absolute numbers of people with first stroke (16·9 million), stroke survivors (33 million), stroke-related deaths (5·9 million), and DALYs lost (102 million) were high and had significantly increased since 1990 (68%, 84%, 26%, and 12% increase, respectively), with most of the burden (68·6% incident strokes, 52·2% prevalent strokes, 70·9% stroke deaths, and 77·7% DALYs lost) in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2010, 5·2 million (31%) strokes were in children (aged <20 years old) and young and middle-aged adults (20–64 years), to which children and young and middle-aged adults from low-income and middle-income countries contributed almost 74 000 (89%) and 4·0 million (78%), respectively, of the burden. Additionally, we noted significant geographical differences of between three and ten times in stroke burden between GBD regions and countries. More than 62% of new strokes, 69·8% of prevalent strokes, 45·5% of deaths from stroke, and 71·7% of DALYs lost because of stroke were in people younger than 75 years. Interpretation Although age-standardised rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past two decades, the absolute number of people who have a stroke every year, stroke survivors, related deaths, and the overall global burden of stroke (DALYs lost) are great and increasing. Further study is needed to improve understanding of stroke determinants and burden worldwide, and to establish causes of disparities and changes in trends in stroke burden between countries of different income levels. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Overview
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Claims the paper makes
91 Own result · 21 Not checked yet · 11 Own method · 10 Own interpretation · 4 No basis given · 2 Supported · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Although similar reductions in stroke mortality have taken place in some low-income and middle-income countries,29,30”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [29] Andrè, 2006, Progressive decline in stroke mortality in Brazil from 1980 to 1982, 1990 to 1992, and 2000 to 2002, Stroke source
The Results (p. 1) report a substantial decline in stroke mortality in Brazil, and the introduction (p. 1) says decreasing rates have also been detected in a number of developing countries. Together, these support the claim that similar reductions have occurred in some low- and middle-income countries. (LLM, conf=0.91)
- Supportedcites [30] Stringhini, 2012, Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the African region, Stroke source
The Results (p. 2) report a 44% decline in age-standardized stroke mortality among men and a 39% decline among women in Seychelles between 1989–1991 and 2008–2010. The Declining CVD Mortality section (p. 4) says the decline was similar to that in other middle-income countries, including Brazil and Argentina. (LLM, conf=0.92)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“mostly attributable to an 18% (10–25) significant increase in low-income and middle-income countries.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Globally, for 1990–2010, we noted a 25% (13–33) significant increase in stroke incidence in people aged 20–64 years”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the number of stroke survivors aged 75 years and older in high-income countries exceeded the number in low-income and middle-income countries by 40%”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“mortality rates, ranging from 27 cases (France) to 264 cases (Afghanistan) per 100 000 person-years”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainn = 264- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Incidence and prevalence increased significantly with age in all regions (appendix)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“noticeable increases took place in the absolute numbers of people with incident stroke (a 68% increase)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but steeper increases in incidence, mortality, and DALYs lost were shown in low-income and middle-income countries”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Percent change in DALYs lost per 100 000 people in GBD regions varied from −50·4% to −0·74% (figure 4).”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but incidence decreased in high-income Asia Pacific (rates remained very high in eastern Europe; figure 1 and appendix).”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- It may state two separate claims as one. 39
- Probably not a substantial claim. 28
- The quote only partly states this claim. 5
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In view of the worldwide epidemic of diabetes38 and increasing prevalence of other cardiovascular risk factors in young adults39,40 and overall,41–45 especially in low-income and middle-income countries, the shift in stroke burden towards younger populations is likely to continue globally unless effective preventive strategies are urgently implemented.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [38] Danaei, 2011, National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [39] 2012, Challenging age—old ideas about stroke, Lancet Neurol
- Partly supportedcites [40] de los Rios, 2012, Trends in substance abuse preceding stroke among young adults: a population-based study, Stroke sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not checked yetcites [41] Danaei, 2011, National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [42] Farzadfar, 2011, National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants, Lancet source
- Supportedcites [43] Finucane, 2011, National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants, Lancet source
Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not checked yetcites [44] 2011, An epidemic of risk factors for cardiovascular disease, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [45] Anand, 2011, Stemming the global tsunami of cardiovascular disease, Lancet source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“A worrisome trend towards increasing stroke incidence in young adults has been reported for some countries.36,37”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [36] Kissela, 2012, Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population, Neurology source
The Discussion reports increased ischemic stroke incidence over time among adults aged 20–54 in the study’s Greater Cincinnati population, for both black and white patients. This supports the cited sentence’s claim that an increase among young adults has been reported, though this paper’s evidence is from one US region. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Supportedcites [37] Medin, 2004, Increasing stroke incidence in Sweden between 1989 and 2000 among persons aged 30 to 65 years: evidence from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Register, Stroke source
The Abstract reports rising stroke incidence in Sweden among people aged 30–65 between 1989 and 2000, with the largest increase among those younger than 60. The Conclusions likewise describe an increase among people of working age, supporting Sweden as an example of the reported trend. (LLM, conf=0.89)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mortality increased in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and central and Latin America, but decreased in high-income North America, western and central Europe, north Africa and the Middle East, Australasia, and high-income Asia Pacific”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“an estimated 16·9 million cases of incident stroke took place worldwide”
- Also stated in: § Findings · plain
“the absolute numbers of people with first stroke (16·9 million)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainn = 9- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § Findings · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“DALYs lost, ranging from 398 (Australia) to 5227 (Afghanistan) per 100 000 people”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“0·7% and 22% of all stroke deaths”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(69% in low-income and middle-income countries)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainn = 9- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Presently, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence in low-income and middle-income countries exceed those in high-income countries by 23%”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“33·0 million prevalent stroke cases”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“28% of DALYs lost (46% in high-income countries and 23% in low-income and middle-income countries) were in people aged 75 years and older”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but decreased in high-income North America, western and central Europe, north Africa and the Middle East, Australasia, and high-income Asia Pacific”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In low-income and middle-income countries, age-standardised incidence and prevalence increased almost equally (9–10%) in younger and older people, but the increases were not significant”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The most marked reductions in DALYs lost were in west and central sub-Saharan Africa; eastern Europe; and central, south, and southeast Asia (figure 4 and appendix).”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“whereas DALYs lost fell by 36% in people younger than 75 years and by 63% in older people”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Comorbid diseases have independent probabilities.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Disability is the same for haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke during the hyperacute phase (1-3 days after event).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of severity is similar based on GBD sequela definition and Rankin Scale categories.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most striking were significant reductions in rates of age-standardised stroke mortality (24%), DALYs lost (24%), and mortality-to-incidence ratios (32%) in people younger than 75 years compared with older people (16%, 17%, and 23% respectively”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The direction of effect of selected covariates on stroke mortality is plausible based on existing scientific literature.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A hierarchy of risk exists that would be retained in the model.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Comorbid diseases have independent probabilities.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Disability is the same for haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke during the hyperacute phase (1-3 days after event).
- The authors state this as an assumption: The distribution of severity is similar based on GBD sequela definition and Rankin Scale categories.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“30% of prevalent strokes (40% in high-income countries and 22% in low-income and middle-income countries)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of 16 558 potentially eligible studies undertaken in 1990–2010, we selected 119 articles for final analysis: 58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(78% in low-income and middle-income countries; table 1)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“5·9 million stroke deaths”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the 8·5% (−13 to 34) increase in low-income and middle-income countries was not significant.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(0·32 in high-income countries and 0·36 in low-income and middle-income countries; table 1)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(71% in low-income and middle-income countries)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The most striking increases in the number of stroke survivors (113%), DALYs lost (31%), and stroke-related deaths (36%) were in people aged 75 years and older”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“prevalence, ranging from 82 stroke survivors (Burundi) to 1187 survivors (Canada) per 100 000 people”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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In the paper
“and a 12% [−3 to 22] non-significant increase in low-income and middle-income countries”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By GBD regions, increases were shown in stroke incidence in sub-Saharan Africa (central, east, southern, and west), the Middle East, southeast Asia, central and Latin America, and south and east Asia, but incidence decreased in high-income Asia Pacific”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“to which children and young to middle-age adults in low-income and middle-income countries contributed almost 74 000 (89%)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“102·2 million DALYs lost”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“mortality-to-incidence ratio (23% [14–29]”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(52% in low-income and middle-income countries)”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and in mortality-to-incidence ratios, ranging from 0·11 (Iran) to 1·35 (Afghanistan).”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Although in the past two decades there was a trend towards occurrence of incident stroke later in life, probably because of an ageing population,35”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [35] Cairncross, 2007, Economics: age, health and wealth, Nature source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even low-income and middle-income regions with a relatively low stroke incidence and prevalence, such as sub-Saharan Africa, have high stroke mortality rates and a low rate of reduction in DALYs lost.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“our findings of the decrease in mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, although not significant, were unexpected.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our findings show that although stroke mortality rates and mortality-to-incidence ratios have decreased in the past two decades”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, in these countries, stroke incidence has increased, and mortality-to-incidence ratios and DALYs lost are higher than in high-income countries.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and more than 83 000 children and youths aged 20 years and younger are affected by stroke annually.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainn = 83,000- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Worldwide in 2010, roughly 10% of the 52 769 700 deaths1 and about 4% of the 2 490 385 000 DALYs2 were due to stroke.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] Lozano, 2012, Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [2] Murray, 2012, Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our study is the first to show that the age-specific burden of stroke in low-income and middle-income countries is significantly greater than that in high-income countries, whereas the age-specific prevalence of stroke is significantly greater in high-income countries.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the pro portion of young people (aged <20 years) and young and middle-aged adults (20–64 years) affected by stroke increased.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the global burden of stroke in terms of the absolute number of people affected every year, stroke survivors, related deaths, and DALYs lost are great and increasing”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2010) ranked stroke as the second most common cause of death1”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] Lozano, 2012, Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“and the third most common cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)2 worldwide in 2010.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] Murray, 2012, Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“We allowed less rigorous case ascertainment for studies from low-income and middle-income countries in which no other relevant data were otherwise available”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Literature search and data extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [5] Bennett, 2012, Methodology of the global and regional burden of stroke study, Neuroepidemiology source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“by contrast with high-income countries where a 42% decrease in incidence has taken place in the past four decades.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] Feigin, 2009, Worldwide stroke incidence and early case fatality reported in 56 population-based studies: a systematic review, Lancet Neurol source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Incidence studies from high-income countries had to include complete ascertainment of stroke cases (ie, admitted or not admitted to hospital, fatal and non-fatal) with several overlapping sources of information”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Literature search and data extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [7] Feigin, 2004, How to study stroke incidence, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Studies of a high methodological quality (quality rating 4–5) constituted 55 (95%) of the studies in high-income countries and 14 (23%) of those in low-income and middle-income countries.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“we included only studies that used WHO’s definition of stroke,6 that reported methods for ascertainment stroke cases, that distinguished between first-ever and recurrent stroke (only incident strokes were included in these analyses), and that reported an age-specific epidemiological parameter of interest and the population denominator”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Literature search and data extraction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [6] Aho, 1980, Cerebrovascular disease in the community: results of a WHO collaborative study, Bull World Health Organ
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“A previous systematic review3 of population-based studies of stroke incidence from 28 countries showed that incidence is increasing in low-income and middle-income countries”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] Feigin, 2009, Worldwide stroke incidence and early case fatality reported in 56 population-based studies: a systematic review, Lancet Neurol source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The sponsor of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Role of the funding source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The GBD 2010 investigators developed statistical methods4 to address incomplete epidemiological data and provide the most complete and com parable estimates of the global burden of 291 diseases and injuries in all countries grouped into 21 world regions”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] Murray, 2012, GBD 2010: design, definitions, and metrics, Lancet source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the absolute number of people who have a stroke every year, stroke survivors, related deaths, and the overall global burden of stroke (DALYs lost) are great and increasing.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Interpretation
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Although the estimates from the GBD 2010 Study showed that ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the two greatest causes of death between 1990 and 2010,1,8”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] Lozano, 2012, Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [8] Wang, 2012, Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries, 1970–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There fore, we probably underestimated the burden of stroke by not including so-called silent strokes and vascular dementia in the case definition nor the effect of accelerated long-term cognitive functional decline in our estimation of disability.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“As in a previous study30 we did not note a strong parallel between changes in stroke incidence and mortality, suggesting that factors contributing to stroke incidence and mortality or their changes (including level of exposure to those factors) over time might be different.31”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, this limitation should not have a marked effect on our estimates because we applied standard methodological criteria for selection of studies across the 20 year study period and believe that the quality of data was consistent for included studies.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The increasing prevalence of smoking20 and other risk factors21 for stroke in the developing world is particularly alarming”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [20] 2013
- Not checked yetcites [21] Lim, 2012, A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Together with increased mortality-to-incidence ratios in low-income and middle-income countries, this finding suggests differences in the management of acute stroke as the likely explanation of differences in stroke prevalence, with less adequate stroke management being associated with a greater case fatality and subsequent lower levels of stroke prevalence.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition to a significant increase in the incidence of stroke in young and middle-aged adults, these findings suggest that stroke should no longer be regarded as a disease of old age.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Difficulty in access to health care, and restricted resources in terms of adequate acute stroke treatment, rehabilitation, and secondary stroke prevention (eg, anticoagulation for patients with ischaemic stroke with atrial fibrillation) are likely to account for higher stroke mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratios, and DALYs lost, and lower stroke prevalence in low-income and middle-income coun”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] Johnston, 2009, Global variation in stroke burden and mortality: estimates from monitoring, surveillance, and modelling, Lancet Neurol source
- Not checked yetcites [34] Norrving, 2013, The global burden of stroke and need for a continuum of care, Neurology
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This study was comprehensive in its global coverage, is based on the largest stroke epidemiological dataset to date, and is the first to provide systematic regional and country-specific estimates of stroke burden”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Wide geographical variations in rates of stroke mortality,19,32,33 with significantly greater rates of age-adjusted mortality and DALYs lost in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries,19 have also been reported elsewhere.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] Johnston, 2009, Global variation in stroke burden and mortality: estimates from monitoring, surveillance, and modelling, Lancet Neurol source
- Not checked yetcites [32] Sarti, 2000, International trends in mortality from stroke, 1968 to 1994, Stroke source
- Not checked yetcites [33] Sarti, 2003, Are changes in mortality from stroke caused by changes in stroke event rates or case fatality? Results from the WHO MONICA Project, Stroke source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although we cannot exclude the possibility of errors in calculations of stroke disability weights”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The sensitivity analyses we undertook to assess the effects of incomplete and poor quality data , and for settings where no data were available, gave similar results, thus showing the robustness of estimates of stroke mortality.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If these trends in stroke incidence, mortality, and DALYs continue, by 2030 there will be almost 12 million stroke deaths, 70 million stroke survivors, and more than 200 million DALYs lost globally.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Trends in stroke incidence, mortality, and DALYs will continue as observed.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the high correlation of the weights across settings suggests that a broadly shared set of common values exists for health losses due to stroke, thus increasing our confidence in the reliability of our calculations of disability weights.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Although the reduction in stroke mortality in high-income countries is not surprising because it has been consistently reported in most countries of this income level,25–28”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [25] Vaartjes, 2013, Remarkable decline in ischemic stroke mortality is not matched by changes in incidence, Stroke source
- Not checked yetcites [26] Gillum, 2011, Ethnic and geographic variation in stroke mortality trends, Stroke source
- Not checked yetcites [27] Kunst, 2011, The decline in stroke mortality: exploration of future trends in 7 western European countries, Stroke source
- Not checked yetcites [28] Redon, 2011, Stroke mortality and trends from 1990 to 2006 in 39 countries from Europe and Central Asia: implications for control of high blood pressure, Eur Heart J source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, our results reinforce the conclusions of the 1990, 2001, and GBD 2010 studies about the growing burden of stroke globally and in low-income and middle-income countries in particular (panel).”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
No comprehensive and comparable assessment of stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability burden, and recent epidemiological trends has been estimated for most world regions.
“However, no comprehensive and comparable assessment of stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability burden (as measured by DALYs lost), and recent epidemiologic trends has been estimated for most world regions.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The direction of effect of selected covariates on stroke mortality is plausible based on existing scientific literature.
“We selected a set of relevant covariates and assumed a plausible direction of effect on the basis of existing scientific literature (appendix).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
A hierarchy of risk exists that would be retained in the model.
“We assumed that a hierarchy of risk existed that would be retained in the model.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Comorbid diseases have independent probabilities.
“assuming independent probabilities of comorbid diseases (eg, stroke plus diabetes).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Disability is the same for haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke during the hyperacute phase (1-3 days after event).
“We assumed the same disability for haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke during the hyperacute phase (ie, 1–3 days after the event)”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The distribution of severity is similar based on GBD sequela definition and Rankin Scale categories.
“We assumed a similar distribution of severity on the basis of the GBD sequela definition and Rankin Scale categories.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Trends in stroke incidence, mortality, and DALYs will continue as observed.
“If these trends in stroke incidence, mortality, and DALYs continue”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Trends in smoking and other stroke risk factors in the developing world will continue unchecked.
“if these trends continue and are left unchecked”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“In 2016, WHO member states negotiated a Framework for Engagement with Non-State Actors,192 which includes non-governmental organisations, private sector entities, philanthropic foundations, and academic institutions. The Framework guides and strengthens the ways in which WHO interacts and works with these entities, seeking to ensure “transparency, openness, inclusiveness, accountability, integrity”
From The legal determinants of health: harnessing the power of law for global health and sustainable development (2019) · cites this paper as [192]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“Although non-state actors can informally contribute to the Organization's work and attend governing body meetings, they are not permitted to engage in actual decision-making processes.192”
From The legal determinants of health: harnessing the power of law for global health and sustainable development (2019) · cites this paper as [192]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
“the similar pattern of decline in stroke incidence and mortality suggests that changes in mortality rates are most likely to be attributable to the corresponding changes in incidence.”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
“we did not note a strong parallel between changes in stroke incidence and mortality, suggesting that factors contributing to stroke incidence and mortality or their changes (including level of exposure to those factors) over time might be different.”
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
“Mortality rates decreased significantly in both high income (37%, 31–41) and low-income and middle-income countries (20%, 15–30).”
§ Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
“our findings of the decrease in mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, although not significant, were unexpected.”
Citations
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“The prevalence of stroke, which is the second leading cause of death in the world [1] and one of the leading causes of disability, is increasing [2].”
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Bioinformatics Analysis of Gene Expression Profiles of Sex Differences in Ischemic Stroke
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“Worldwide, stroke is ranked as the second most common cause of death behind ischemic heart disease, with about 17 million new cases and 6 million deaths each year [1].”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Feigin, V. L., Forouzanfar, M. H., Krishnamurthi, R., Mensah, G. A., Connor, M., Bennett, D. A., Moran, A. E., Sacco, R. L., Anderson, L., Truelsen, T., O'Donnell, M., Venketasubramanian, N., Barker-Collo, S., Lawes, C. M. M., Wang, W., Shinohara, Y., Witt, E., Ezzati, M., Naghavi, M., & Murray, C.
- Affiliations
- Auckland University of Technology (NZ)
- University of Washington (US)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- National Health Service (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Columbia University Irving Medical Center (US)
- University of Miami (US)
- Washington State Institute for Public Policy (US)
- Herlev Hospital (DK)
- Ollscoil na Gaillimhe – University of Galway (IE)
- University of Auckland (NZ)
- Capital Medical University (CN)
- Tachikawa Hospital (JP)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Feigin, Valery L
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2014-01
- Volume
- 383
- Issue
- 9913
- Pages
- 245-255
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC4181600
- OpenAlex
- W2155477484
- Semantic Scholar
- 40299da354638a7c56c5ce2515577475d0b1dd63
- Cited by
- 3,899
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 114 · 2025: 184 · 2024: 245 · 2023: 261 · 2022: 302 · 2021: 364 · 2020: 416 · 2019: 424 · 2018: 400 · 2017: 411 · 2016: 346 · 2015: 293 · 2014: 126
- FWCI
- 30.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2014-01-18)
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- National University of Singapore (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Miami
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (K08HL089675)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Keywords
- stroke, global burden of disease, stroke incidence, stroke prevalence, stroke mortality, disability-adjusted life years, stroke survivors, epidemiological trends, high-income countries, low- and middle-income countries, regional variation, age-standardized rates, Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, disability burden
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Developing Countries, Humans, Mortality, Global Health, Cost of Illness, Developed Countries, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Stroke
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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