The need for a complex systems model of evidence for public health

Dilemmas in a general theory of planning

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Process evaluation of complex interventions: Medical Research Council guidance

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Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial

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The strategy of preventive medicine

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The New Science of Cities

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Leverage Points—Places to Intervene in a System

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Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life

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Syndemics and the biosocial conception of health

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Theorising interventions as events in systems

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A new framework for developing and evaluating complex interventions: update of Medical Research Council guidance

Skivington, K., Matthews, L., Simpson, S. A., Craig, P., Baird, J., Blazeby, J. M., Boyd, K. A., Craig, N., French, D. P., McIntosh, E., et al. (2021) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.n2061 · Cited by 5,808

Interventions for preventing obesity in children

Brown, T. J., Moore, T. H., Hooper, L., Gao, Y., Zayegh, A. M., Ijaz, S., Elwenspoek, M. M. C., Foxen, S. C., Magee, L., O’Malley, C. L., et al. (2019) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd001871.pub4 · Cited by 3,054

Studying complexity in health services research: desperately seeking an overdue paradigm shift

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Physical activity behaviours in adolescence: Current evidence and opportunities for intervention

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Stemming the Superbug Tide

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Advancing the global public health agenda for NAFLD: a consensus statement

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Framework for the development and evaluation of complex interventions: gap analysis, workshop and consultation-informed update

Skivington, K., Matthews, L., Simpson, S. A., Craig, P., Baird, J., Blazeby, J. M., Boyd, K., Craig, N. J., French, D., McIntosh, E., et al. (2021) · Health Technology Assessment · doi:10.3310/hta25570 · Cited by 585

Forty years of wicked problems literature: forging closer links to policy studies

Head, B. W. (2018) · Policy and Society · doi:10.1080/14494035.2018.1488797 · Cited by 551

From complex social interventions to interventions in complex social systems: Future directions and unresolved questions for intervention development and evaluation

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Epistemic injustice in academic global health

Bhakuni, H., & Abímbọ́lá, Ṣ. (2021) · The Lancet Global Health · doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00301-6 · Cited by 469

How simulation modelling can help reduce the impact of COVID-19

Currie, C. S. M., Fowler, J., Kotiadis, K., Monks, T., Onggo, B. S., Robertson, D. A., & Tako, A. A. (2020) · Journal of Simulation · doi:10.1080/17477778.2020.1751570 · Cited by 425

The Handbook of Behavior Change

Hagger, M. S., Cameron, L. D., Hamilton, K., Hankonen, N. E., & Lintunen, T. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108677318 · Cited by 446

Investing in non-communicable disease prevention and management to advance the Sustainable Development Goals

Nugent, R. A., Bertram, M., Jan, S., Niessen, L. W., Sassi, F., Jamison, D. T. T., Pier, E. G., & Beaglehole, R. (2018) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)30667-6 · Cited by 376

Taking account of context in population health intervention research: guidance for producers, users and funders of research

Craig, P., Di Ruggiero, E., Frohlich, K. L., Mykhalovskiy, E., White, M., on behalf of the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR)–National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Context Guidance Authors Group (listed alphabetically), Campbell, R., Cummins, S., Edwards, N., Hunt, K., et al. (2018) · doi:10.3310/cihr-nihr-01 · Cited by 370

Social network interventions for health behaviours and outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Hunter, R. F., de la Haye, K., Murray, J., Badham, J., Valente, T. W., Clarke, M. J., & Kee, F. (2019) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002890 · Cited by 362

Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

Shepherd, T. G. (2019) · Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.2019.0013 · Cited by 331

Whole systems approaches to obesity and other complex public health challenges: a systematic review

Bagnall, A., Radley, D., Jones, R., Gately, P., Nobles, J., van Dijk, M., Blackshaw, J., Montel, S., & Sahota, P. (2019) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-018-6274-z · Cited by 331

Public health emergency preparedness: a framework to promote resilience

Khan, Y., O’Sullivan, T. L., Brown, A. D., Tracey, S., Gibson, J., Généreux, M., Henry, B., & Schwartz, B. (2018) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-018-6250-7 · Cited by 318

Environmental interventions to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and their effects on health

von Philipsborn, P., Stratil, J. M., Burns, J., Busert, L. K., Pfadenhauer, L. M., Polus, S., Holzapfel, C., Hauner, H., & Rehfuess, E. A. (2019) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd012292.pub2 · Cited by 320

An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and Its Applications

Siegenfeld, A. F., & Bar-Yam, Y. (2020) · Complexity · doi:10.1155/2020/6105872 · Cited by 338

Changing Behavior Using the Theory of Planned Behavior

Ajzen, I., & Schmidt, P. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108677318.002 · Cited by 346

Antimicrobial Resistance in the Global Health Network: Known Unknowns and Challenges for Efficient Responses in the 21st Century

Coque, T. M., Cantón, R., Pérez‐Cobas, A. E., Fernández-de-Bobadilla, M. D., & Baquero, F. (2023) · Microorganisms · doi:10.3390/microorganisms11041050 · Cited by 288

Systems approaches to global and national physical activity plans

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A System Dynamics and Participatory Action Research Approach to Promote Healthy Living and a Healthy Weight among 10–14-Year-Old Adolescents in Amsterdam: The LIKE Programme

Waterlander, W. E., Pinzon, A. L., Verhoeff, A. P., den Hertog, K., Altenburg, T. M., Dijkstra, S. C., Halberstadt, J., Hermans, R. C. J., Renders, C. M., Seidell, J. C., et al. (2020) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph17144928 · Cited by 265

Evaluation of public health interventions from a complex systems perspective: A research methods review

McGill, E., Er, V., Penney, T. L., Egan, M., White, M. J., Meier, P. S., Whitehead, M. M., Lock, K., de Cuevas, R. A., Smith, R., et al. (2021) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113697 · Cited by 265

Context matters: revisiting the first step of the 'Sequence of Prevention' of sports injuries

Bolling, C., van Mechelen, W., Pasman, H. R., & Verhagen, E. (2018) · Sports Medicine · doi:10.1007/s40279-018-0953-x · Cited by 262

COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on social relationships and health

Long, E., Patterson, S., Maxwell, K., Blake, C., Pérez, R. B., Lewis, R., McCann, M., Riddell, J., Skivington, K., Wilson-Lowe, R. V., et al. (2021) · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2021-216690 · Cited by 254

Physical Activity Promotion and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: Building Synergies to Maximize Impact

Salvo, D., García, L., Reis, R. S., Stankov, I., Goel, R., Schipperijn, J., Hallal, P. C., Ding, D., & Pratt, M. (2021) · Journal of Physical Activity and Health · doi:10.1123/jpah.2021-0413 · Cited by 247

Scaling up: The politics of health and place

Bambra, C. L., Smith, K. E., & Pearce, J. R. (2019) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.04.036 · Cited by 210

Using natural experimental studies to guide public health action: turning the evidence-based medicine paradigm on its head

Ogilvie, D., Adams, J. M., Bauman, A. E., Gregg, E. W., Panter, J., Siegel, K. R., Wareham, N. J., & White, M. J. (2019) · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2019-213085 · Cited by 205

Systems Thinking as a Framework for Analyzing Commercial Determinants of Health

Knai, C., Petticrew, M. P., Mays, N., Capewell, S., Cassidy, R., Cummins, S., Eastmure, E., Fafard, P., Hawkins, B., Jensen, J. D., et al. (2018) · Milbank Quarterly · doi:10.1111/1468-0009.12339 · Cited by 211

Implications of a complexity perspective for systematic reviews and guideline development in health decision making

Petticrew, M. P., Knai, C., Thomas, J., Rehfuess, E. A., Noyes, J., Gerhardus, A., Grimshaw, J., Rutter, H., & McGill, E. (2019) · BMJ Global Health · doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2018-000899 · Cited by 212

COVID-19 false dichotomies and a comprehensive review of the evidence regarding public health, COVID-19 symptomatology, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mask wearing, and reinfection

Escandón-Vargas, K., Rasmussen, A. L., Bogoch, I. I., Murray, E. J., Escandón, K., Popescu, S. V., & Kindrachuk, J. (2021) · BMC Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1186/s12879-021-06357-4 · Cited by 206

A new framework for developing and evaluating complex interventions: update of Medical Research Council guidance

Skivington, K., Matthews, L., Simpson, S. A., Craig, P., Baird, J., Blazeby, J. M., Boyd, K., Craig, N. J., French, D., McIntosh, E., et al. (2024) · International Journal of Nursing Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2024.104705 · Cited by 203

Biodiversity conservation as a promising frontier for behavioural science

Nielsen, K. S., Marteau, T. M., Bauer, J. M., Bradbury, R. B., Broad, S., Burgess, G., Burgman, M. A., Byerly, H., Clayton, S., Espelosin, D., et al. (2021) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01109-5 · Cited by 177

Life course approach to prevention and control of non-communicable diseases

Mikkelsen, B., Williams, J., Ivo Rakovac, A., Wickramasinghe, K. K., Hennis, A. J. M., Shin, H., Farmer, M. Y., Weber, M., Berdzuli, N., Borges, C. B., et al. (2019) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.l257 · Cited by 164

Transforming cities for sustainability: A health perspective

Crane, M., Lloyd, S., Haines, A., Ding, D., Hutchinson, E., Belesova, K., Davies, M., Osrin, D., Zimmermann, N., Capon, A., et al. (2021) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2020.106366 · Cited by 162

Built and natural environment planning principles for promoting health: an umbrella review

Bird, E. L., Ige, J., Pilkington, P., Pinto, A., Petrokofsky, C., & Burgess‐Allen, J. (2018) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-018-5870-2 · Cited by 161

Examining the effectiveness of place-based interventions to improve public health and reduce health inequalities: an umbrella review

McGowan, V. J., Buckner, S., Mead, R., McGill, E., Ronzi, S., Beyer, F. R., & Bambra, C. L. (2021) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-021-11852-z · Cited by 166

Get the message? A scoping review of physical activity messaging

Williamson, C., Baker, G., Mutrie, N., Niven, A. G., & Kelly, P. (2020) · International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity · doi:10.1186/s12966-020-00954-3 · Cited by 152

Will COVID-19 be evidence-based medicine’s nemesis?

Greenhalgh, T. (2020) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003266 · Cited by 153

The use of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to address causality in complex systems: a systematic review of research on public health interventions

Hanckel, B., Petticrew, M., Thomas, J., & Green, J. (2021) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-021-10926-2 · Cited by 147

Changing Behavior Using the Model of Action Phases

Keller, L., Gollwitzer, P. M., & Sheeran, P. (2020) · The Handbook of Behavior Change · doi:10.1017/9781108677318.006 · Cited by 147

Using machine learning as a surrogate model for agent-based simulations

Angione, C., Silverman, E., & Yaneske, E. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0263150 · Cited by 160

Towards a taxonomy of logic models in systematic reviews and health technology assessments: A priori, staged, and iterative approaches

Rehfuess, E. A., Booth, A., Brereton, L., Burns, J., Gerhardus, A., Mozygemba, K., Oortwijn, W., Pfadenhauer, L. M., Tummers, M., van der Wilt, G. J., et al. (2017) · Research Synthesis Methods · doi:10.1002/jrsm.1254 · Cited by 151

Interventions to reduce ambient air pollution and their effects on health: An abridged Cochrane systematic review

Burns, J., Boogaard, H., Polus, S., Pfadenhauer, L. M., Rohwer, A. C., van Erp, A. M., Turley, R., & Rehfuess, E. A. (2019) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2019.105400 · Cited by 134

The uses of knowledge in global health

Abímbọ́lá, Ṣ. (2021) · BMJ Global Health · doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005802 · Cited by 133

Trauma- and Violence-Informed Care: Orienting Intimate Partner Violence Interventions to Equity

Wathen, C. N., & Mantler, T. (2022) · Current Epidemiology Reports · doi:10.1007/s40471-022-00307-7 · Cited by 132

Qualitative process evaluation from a complex systems perspective: A systematic review and framework for public health evaluators

McGill, E., Marks, D., Er, V., Penney, T. L., Petticrew, M. P., & Egan, M. (2020) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003368 · Cited by 129

Translating systems thinking into practice for community action on childhood obesity

Allender, S. E., Brown, A. D., Bolton, K. A., Fraser, P., Lowe, J., & Hovmand, P. S. (2019) · Obesity Reviews · doi:10.1111/obr.12865 · Cited by 126

‘Nothing can be done until everything is done’: the use of complexity arguments by food, beverage, alcohol and gambling industries

Petticrew, M. P., Katikireddi, S. V., Knai, C., Cassidy, R., Maani, N., Thomas, J., & Weishaar, H. B. (2017) · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2017-209710 · Cited by 131

The value of a causal loop diagram in exploring the complex interplay of factors that influence health promotion in a multisectoral health system in Australia

Littlejohns, L. B., Baum, F. E., Lawless, A. P., & Freeman, T. (2018) · Health Research Policy and Systems · doi:10.1186/s12961-018-0394-x · Cited by 123

The Action Scales Model: A conceptual tool to identify key points for action within complex adaptive systems

Nobles, J., Radley, D., Mytton, O. T., & The Whole Systems Obesity programme team (2021) · Perspectives in Public Health · doi:10.1177/17579139211006747 · Cited by 119

Changing Behavior Using the Health Action Process Approach

Schwarzer, R., & Hamilton, K. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108677318.007 · Cited by 114

Complex systems and individual-level approaches to population health: a false dichotomy?

Sniehotta, F. F., Araújo‐Soares, V., Brown, J., Kelly, M. P., Michie, S., & West, R. (2017) · The Lancet Public Health · doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(17)30167-6 · Cited by 102

Neighbourhood food environments: food choice, foodscapes and planning for health

Lake, A. A. (2018) · Proceedings of The Nutrition Society · doi:10.1017/s0029665118000022 · Cited by 102

What role should the commercial food system play in promoting health through better diet?

White, M. J., Aguirre, E., Finegood, D. T., Holmes, C. C., Sacks, G., & Smith, R. (2020) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.m545 · Cited by 111

Evaluating complex interventions in context: systematic, meta-narrative review of case study approaches

Paparini, S., Papoutsi, C., Murdoch, J., Green, J., Petticrew, M., Greenhalgh, T., & Shaw, S. E. (2021) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-021-01418-3 · Cited by 131

Diverse Approaches to Creating and Using Causal Loop Diagrams in Public Health Research: Recommendations From a Scoping Review

Littlejohns, L. B., Hill, C., & Neudorf, C. O. (2021) · Public health reviews · doi:10.3389/phrs.2021.1604352 · Cited by 100

Ripple effects mapping: capturing the wider impacts of systems change efforts in public health

Nobles, J., Wheeler, J. R., Dunleavy-Harris, K., Holmes, R., Inman-Ward, A., Potts, A. J., Hall, J., Redwood, S., Jago, R., & Foster, C. E. (2022) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-022-01570-4 · Cited by 98

A global action agenda for turning the tide on fatty liver disease

Lazarus, J. V., Mark, H. E., Allen, A. M., Arab, J. P., Carrieri, P., Noureddin, M., Alazawi, W., Alkhouri, N., Alqahtani, S. A., Anstee, Q. M., et al. (2023) · Hepatology · doi:10.1097/hep.0000000000000545 · Cited by 98

Understanding obesity‐related behaviors in youth from a systems dynamics perspective: The use of causal loop diagrams

Waterlander, W. E., Singh, A. S., Altenburg, T. M., Dijkstra, S. C., Pinzon, A. L., Anselma, M., Busch, V., van Houtum, L., Emke, H., Overman, M. L., et al. (2020) · Obesity Reviews · doi:10.1111/obr.13185 · Cited by 102

Developing agent-based models of complex health behaviour

Badham, J., Chattoe‐Brown, E., Gilbert, N., Chalabi, Z., Kee, F., & Hunter, R. F. (2018) · Health & Place · doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2018.08.022 · Cited by 93

Understanding the unintended consequences of public health policies: the views of policymakers and evaluators

Oliver, K. A., Lorenc, T., Tinkler, J., & Bonell, C. P. (2019) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-019-7389-6 · Cited by 93

COVID-19 and the health of people who use drugs: What is and what could be?

Grebely, J., Cerdá, M., & Rhodes, T. (2020) · International Journal of Drug Policy · doi:10.1016/j.drugpo.2020.102958 · Cited by 99

Mental health and psychosocial support in humanitarian settings: research priorities for 2021–30

Tol, W. A., Le, P. D., Harrison, S. L., Galappatti, A., Annan, J. R., Baingana, F. K., Betancourt, T. S., Bizouerne, C., Eaton, J., Engels, M., et al. (2023) · The Lancet Global Health · doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00128-6 · Cited by 93

Evolution and expansion of the One Health approach to promote sustainable and resilient health and well-being: A call to action

MUMFORD, E. L., Martinez, D. J., Hassell, K. T., Cook, A. J. C., Hansen, G. R., Labonté, R., Mazet, J. A. K., Mumford, E. C., Rizzo, D. M., Togami, E., et al. (2023) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.1056459 · Cited by 92

Impact of reducing portion sizes in worksite cafeterias: a stepped wedge randomised controlled pilot trial

Hollands, G., Cartwright, E., Pilling, M., Pechey, R., Vasiljevic, M., Jebb, S., & Marteau, T. (2018) · International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity · doi:10.1186/s12966-018-0705-1 · Cited by 83

Top 10 Research Priorities in Spatial Lifecourse Epidemiology

Jia, P., Lakerveld, J., Wu, J., Stein, A., Root, E. D., Sabel, C. E., Vermeulen, R. C. H., Remais, J. V., Chen, X., Brownson, R. C., et al. (2019) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp4868 · Cited by 91

Measuring implementation fidelity of school-based obesity prevention programmes: a systematic review

Schaap, R., Bessems, K. M. H. H., Otten, R. H. J., Kremers, S., & van Nassau, F. (2018) · International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity · doi:10.1186/s12966-018-0709-x · Cited by 90

Interventions to reduce ambient particulate matter air pollution and their effect on health

Burns, J., Boogaard, H., Polus, S., Pfadenhauer, L. M., Rohwer, A. C., van Erp, A. M., Turley, R., & Rehfuess, E. A. (2019) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd010919.pub2 · Cited by 93

Using flawed, uncertain, proximate and sparse (FUPS) data in the context of complexity: learning from the case of child mental health

Wolpert, M., & Rutter, H. (2018) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12916-018-1079-6 · Cited by 93

How to be a very safe maternity unit: An ethnographic study

Liberati, E. G., Tarrant, C., Willars, J., Draycott, T. J., Winter, C., Chew, S., & Dixon‐Woods, M. (2019) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.01.035 · Cited by 95

Rethinking walkability and developing a conceptual definition of active living environments to guide research and practice

Tobin, M. A., Hajna, S., Orychock, K., Ross, N. A., DeVries, M., Villeneuve, P. J., Frank, L. D., McCormack, G. R., Wasfi, R., Steinmetz-Wood, M., et al. (2022) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-022-12747-3 · Cited by 86

Using community-based system dynamics modeling to understand the complex systems that influence health in cities: The SALURBAL study

Langellier, B. A., Kuhlberg, J., Ballard, E., Slesinski, S. C., Stankov, I., Gouveia, N., Meisel, J. D., Kroker-Lobos, M. F., Sarmiento, O. L., Caiaffa, W. T., et al. (2019) · Health & Place · doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2019.102215 · Cited by 85

The case for developing a cohesive systems approach to research across unhealthy commodity industries

Knai, C., Petticrew, M. P., Capewell, S., Cassidy, R., Collin, J., Cummins, S., Eastmure, E., Fafard, P., Fitzgerald, N., Gilmore, A., et al. (2021) · BMJ Global Health · doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003543 · Cited by 90

Applying systems thinking to knowledge mobilisation in public health

Haynes, A. S., Rychetnik, L., Finegood, D. T., Irving, M. J., Freebairn, L., & Hawe, P. (2020) · Health Research Policy and Systems · doi:10.1186/s12961-020-00600-1 · Cited by 85

Advancing the evidence base for public policies impacting on dietary behaviour, physical activity and sedentary behaviour in Europe: The Policy Evaluation Network promoting a multidisciplinary approach

Lakerveld, J., Woods, C. B., Hebestreit, A., Brenner, H., Flechtner‐Mors, M., Harrington, J. M., Kamphuis, C. B. M., Laxy, M., Łuszczyńska, A., Mazzocchi, M., et al. (2020) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101873 · Cited by 83

Using natural experiments to improve public health evidence: a review of context and utility for obesity prevention

Crane, M. A., Bohn-Goldbaum, E. E., Grunseit, A. C., & Bauman, A. E. (2020) · Health Research Policy and Systems · doi:10.1186/s12961-020-00564-2 · Cited by 88

Using System Mapping to Help Plan and Implement City-Wide Action to Promote Physical Activity

Cavill, N., Richardson, D., Faghy, M. A., Bussell, C., & Rutter, H. (2020) · Journal of Public Health Research · doi:10.4081/jphr.2020.1759 · Cited by 81

The social origins of obesity within and across generations

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Identifying the views of adolescents in five European countries on the drivers of obesity using group model building

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