The DOI matches its Crossref record; 53 of the 55 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 34 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. FINDINGS: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading
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Claims the paper makes
154 Own result · 27 Own method · 26 Not checked yet · 20 Own interpretation · 14 No basis given
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Other communicable diseases that decreased in terms of total deaths included malaria, measles, leishmaniasis, and intestinal infectious diseases, which decreased by 25·9% (95% UI 6·13–41·4), 72·5% (67·8–77·0), 54·1% (49·8–57·9), and 14·7% (8·87–22·0), respectively, from 2006 to 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“total deaths decreased by 24·2% (95% UI 14·2–32·2) from 2·18 million deaths (1·72 million to 3·01 million) in 2006 to 1·66 million deaths (1·24 million to 2·37 million) in 2016”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A rating of 0 stars was assigned to 27 countries where no VA or VR data were available over the period from 1980 to2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Data quality rating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While total NCD deaths increased from 2006 to 2016, rising 16·1% (95% UI 14·2–18·0)—an additional 5·47 million deaths—”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global causes of death
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“HIV/AIDS mortality peaked in 2005 globally, with declining death rates probably reflecting the successful expansion of ART programmes and programmes focused on the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“19·3% (18·5–20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This decrease in absolute mortality level was accompanied by a large decrease in the global age-standardised HIV/AIDS death rate, which dropped 52·8% (95% UI 51·0–54·4) from 29·0 deaths (27·6–30·3) per 100 000 in 2006 to 13·7 deaths (13·1–14·3) per 100 000 in 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 91
- Probably not a substantial claim. 22
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While most countries with a 5-star time series rating were high-SDI countries, some high-SDI countries were rated at 4 stars, such as France, Poland, and Puerto Rico.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Data quality rating
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Generally, communicable diseases decreased as a leading source of death, and much of this decrease was driven by reductions in large contributors to global mortality, including HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and diarrhoeal diseases (table 2).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“the correlation of the GBD 2015 and GBD 2016 versions of SDI is 0·977 (p<0·0001)”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Methods > Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and epidemiological transition analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [21] 2017, Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, Lancet source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Total deaths declined in the age group intervals of 0–6 days, 7–27 days, 28–364 days, 1–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years, and increased by more than 60% in age groups 80–84 years, 85–89 years, 90–94 years, and 95 years and older.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global causes of death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An estimated 1·21 million deaths (95% UI 1·16 million to 1·27 million) were caused by tuberculosis in 2016, a decrease of 20·9% (17·9–24·5) since 2006.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Findings
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Using this rating system, 25 countries were assigned 5 stars, 48 countries had 4 stars, 30 countries had 3 stars, 21 countries had 2 stars, and 44 countries were assigned 1 star (figure 2).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Data quality rating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Interpretation
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some high-middle-SDI countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Israel also received data quality ratings of 4 stars.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Data quality rating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“total CMNN deaths decreased by 23·9% (95% UI 21·6–26·1), while age-standardised death rates decreased by 32·3% (30·3–34·2).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global causes of death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Causes of deaths for those aged older than age 70 years that increased by more than 90% were neurological disorders; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; other non-communicable diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and mental and substance use disorders.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global causes of death
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176–181) increase in deaths in ages 90–94 years and a 210% (208–212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Findings
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the global age-standardised NCD death rate decreased 12·1% (10·6–13·4), to 614·1 deaths (603·0–625·3) per 100 000 in 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global causes of death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From 2006 to 2016, increases of greater than 30% occurred for several neoplasms that were large causes of deaths (greater than 200 000 in 2016): prostate cancer (30·8% [95% UI 24·5–36·6], to 381 000 deaths [321 000–413 000]); pancreatic cancer (30·2% [26·2–33·7], to 405 000 deaths [394 000–416 000]); and other neoplasms (30·0% [24·5–33·0], to 431 000 deaths [393 000–444 000]).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Non-communicable diseases
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The largest decreases in injury deaths from 2006 to 2016 occurred for exposure to forces of nature (49·2% [95% UI 35·2–63·2], to 7060 deaths [4220–10 100]) and drowning (19·0% [13·3–22·2], to 303 000 deaths [273 000–322 000]), while the largest increase was for conflict and terrorism at 143·3% (42·6–370·6), from 61,900 deaths (33 100 to 91 000) deaths to 150 000 deaths [101 400–202 700]).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Injuries
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Dengue was the only NTD with a significant increase in cause-specific mortality, with an 81·8% (95% UI 42·3–132·6) increase in total deaths, from 20 800 deaths (6000–26 500) in 2006 to 37 800 (10 900–52 700) deaths in 2016”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Deaths from nutritional deficiencies constituted 3·49% (95% UI 3·31–3·79) of total deaths due to CMNN causes, resulting in 368 100 (334 000–422 700) in 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Total deaths among post-neonates (aged 28–364 days) and children aged 1–4 years decreased between 2006 and 2016 by 34·5% (95% UI 31·3–37·4) to 1·49 million deaths (1·42 million to 1·55 million) and 37·2% (33·3–40·5) to 1·35 million deaths (1·28 million to 1·43 million), respectively.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Causes of child death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Unintentional injuries accounted for the most injury deaths in 2016, with 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million) composed mainly of deaths from falls (678 000 deaths [559 000–719 000]), drowning (302 000 deaths [273 000–322 000]), and exposure to mechanical forces (155 000 deaths [124 000–165 000]).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Injuries
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Chronic respiratory diseases contributed 8·96% of NCD deaths in 2016, with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) leading to the most deaths from these conditions (2·93 million deaths [95% UI 2·82 million to 3·12 million]).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Non-communicable diseases
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2016 there were 5·00 million deaths (95% UI 4·78 million to 5·23 million) in children under 5, a decrease of 33·0% (29·7–36·2) from 2006, when 7·46 million (7·27 million to 7·66 million) children died.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Causes of child death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The absolute number of deaths and the total YLLs from diabetes both increased between 2006 and 2016 by 31·1% (95% UI 28·9–33·4) and 25·3% (23·2–27·7), respectively, while age-standardised YLL rates decreased 2·12% (0·29–3·81) over the same time period.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Non-communicable diseases
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“while rates did not change significantly on a global scale for amphetamine use disorders, opioid use disorders, or other drug use disorders over that time period.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Non-communicable diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Age-standardised death rates fell across most neoplasms, most notably for stomach cancer (decrease of 22·5% [95% UI 20·7–24·5], to 12·6 deaths [12·3–12·9] per 100 000 in 2016) and Hodgkin’s lymphoma (decrease of 22·4% [19·9–25·3], to 0·4 deaths [0·4–0·5] per 100 000 in 2016).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Non-communicable diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For NCDs in 2016, the largest number of deaths at Level 2 were caused by cardiovascular diseases (17·6 million deaths [95% UI 17·3 million to 18·1 million]) followed by neoplasms (8·93 million deaths [8·75 million to 9·09 million]), and chronic respiratory diseases (3·54 million deaths [3·40 million to 3·74 million]; table 2).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Non-communicable diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Protein-energy malnutrition resulted in 1·22 million (95% UI 670 000 to 1·81 million) deaths globally from 1980 to 2016 (figure 4C), a total that is largely composed of mortality in eastern sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and the Middle East during the 1980s, and in countries in ast Asia from 1995 through 2002.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Injuries
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In terms of number of deaths in 2016, unintentional injuries were followed by transport injuries (1·44 million deaths [95% UI 1·40 million to 1·49 million]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (1·21 million deaths [1·11 million to 1·29 million]).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Injuries
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Deaths in this group decreased by 28·9% (95% UI 25·5–32·1) from 2006 to 2016, from 3·04 million (2·97 million to 3·12 million) to 2·16 million (2·06 million to 2·27 million); these decreases occurred across all mortality sources, although differences were not significant for neonatal sepsis and other neonatal infections.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Causes of child death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among the leading ten causes of YLLs, the median rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%, higher than the median rate of change (decrease of 1·59%) for causes below the leading ten for YLLs.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global YLLs (by cause)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Deaths from physical violence by firearm were the largest portion (41·2%) of overall interpersonal violence in 2016; globally, age-standardised rates for deaths and for YLLs of physical violence by firearm decreased from 2006 to 2016 by 5·34% (95% UI 0·80–9·52) and 5·19% (0·51–9·71), respectively.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Injuries
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The global number of deaths from Zika virus disease—newly estimated for GBD 2016— was two deaths (95% UI 1–5) in 2015 and 19 deaths (4–57) in 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Generally reflecting single large events within regions, high mortality levels from exposure to forces of nature were estimated for the years 1991 (143 000 [95% UI 65 000–222 000] deaths in South Asia), 2004 (214 000 [127 000–297 000] deaths in Southeast Asia), 2008 (141 000 [73 400–209 000] deaths in Southeast Asia, and 96 300 [15 300–185 000] deaths in East Asia), and 2010 (231 000 [36 700–443 0”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Injuries
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All maternal and neonatal causes of death decreased globally in terms of both total deaths and age-standardised death rates between 2006 and 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Epidemic-prone infectious diseases also resulted in fatal discontinuities from 1980 to 2016 (figure 4B) with peak years in 1991, 1996, and 2014 dominated by mortality from infectious disease outbreaks in western sub-Saharan Africa.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Injuries
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The median annualised rate of change for this set of leading causes of YLLs was a decrease of 2·89%, compared with 1·59% for the remainder of causes in the hierarchy.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In low-SDI locations, shifts in cause rankings by YLLs from 2006 to 2016 occurred beyond the top ten causes, with many CMNN causes decreasing in rank, surpassed by NCD causes and injuries.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global YLLs (by cause)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“While declines in age-standardised YLL rates are an indicator of progress, the absolute numbers of YLLs increased for NCDs in all but the high-SDI quintile; these increases in absolute YLLs from NCDs occurred in tandem with steadily increasing life expectancy in most locations worldwide.21”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [21] 2017, Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, Lancet source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nonetheless, ischaemic heart disease was common among countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, ranking in the leading three causes in all countries in the region, and lower respiratory infections were also commonly within the leading five causes of YLLs in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Observed YLLs compared to expected YLLs
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“NCDs surpassed CMNN diseases in terms of global all-ages YLL rate in 2009 and earlier—in 1992—for age-standardised rates.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The opposite, where observed levels were much higher than expected on the basis of SDI, was most commonly noted in the case of HIV/AIDS and malaria in sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Observed YLLs compared to expected YLLs
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Between the three broad Level 1 cause groups, there was greater heterogeneity in rates of change for age-standardised YLLs for CMNN causes compared with non-communicable causes, while the least variation occurred for injuries.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A few leading causes stand out for their departure from global or regional patterns; for men these included conflict in Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan, and self-harm in Greenland and South Korea.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Leading causes of YLLs
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of YLLs for men in 113 countries and for 97 countries for women, spanning both high-SDI and high-middle SDI locations as well as many lower SDI locations, such as Kyrgyzstan.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Leading causes of YLLs
plainn = 113- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In China, a number of cancers—lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, and oesophageal cancer—were within the leading ten causes of YLLs, and each of these caused higher than expected levels of YLLs on the basis of SDI; from 1·70 times higher for lung cancer to 5·43 times higher for liver cancer.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Observed YLLs compared to expected YLLs
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Other leading causes for which observed YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many countries of both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Observed YLLs compared to expected YLLs
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There was no change from 2006 to 2016 in the leading three causes of YLLs for high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and middle-SDI locations, although age-standardised YLL rates decreased for each of these causes (figure 7A–C).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global YLLs (by cause)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“NCD age-standardised YLL rates also declined for each SDI quintile from 1980 to 2016, but rates of decline were slowest at low SDI and fastest for high SDI.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over the 37-year period analysed here, global deaths due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic rose from 4224 deaths (95% UI 2842–6274) in 1980, peaked in 2005 at 1·91 million (1·81 million to 2·01 million), and declined to 1·03 million (0·99 million to 1·08 million) in 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading cause for both men and women varied between HIV/AIDS, malaria, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections; however, for men in the Central African Republic, tuberculosis was the leading cause.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Leading causes of YLLs
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“however, the causes that contributed the most YLLs varied with location—although regional patterns and patterns associated with SDI were also evident.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Country-specific findings
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The largest reduction in age-standardised YLL rates for high-SDI locations came from road injuries, which fell by 25·2% (95% UI 22·5–27·6), while the largest increase was for drug use disorders (rising by 18·9% [13·8–23·3]).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global YLLs (by cause)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For SDI quintiles, and by GBD regions or locations, there was considerably more heterogeneity in trends—eg, 36 countries had significant increases in age-standardised YLLs across 3 or more of Level 3 causes.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2016, the leading 30 causes of all-age YLLs for high-SDI locations were predominantly from NCDs and injuries, with one CMNN cause—lower respiratory infections—within the leading 30 causes (figure 7A).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global YLLs (by cause)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Age-standardised YLL rates due to injuries varied the least across quintiles and over time but were highest in the low-SDI quintile.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global YLLs (by cause)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This transition was characterised by declining rates of CMNN diseases in all SDI quintiles, with faster rates of decline in lower-SDI quintiles.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Injury age-standardised YLL rates declined in each SDI quintile, although this was punctuated by large increases in some years due to fatal discontinuities from conflict and terrorism, disasters, and epidemics.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In all quintiles, age-standardised rates for NCDs have decreased; by contrast with trends for CMNN causes, the pace of decline for NCD rates was slowest in low SDI and fastest in high SDI.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global YLLs (by cause)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Globally, reductions in age-standardised death rates due to hepatitis C have largely stagnated since 2010 even though a highly effective cure is available—and in the USA, total deaths from hepatitis C have now surpassed deaths from all other notifiable infectious diseases,49”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [49] McMichael, 2006, Climate change and human health: present and future risks, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In some cases, the new SRS data over a 10-year period not only changed results for India but, through changing coefficients in regression models, also modified estimates for other locations that were lower in the stars system of data quality rankings developed for GBD 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The global number of Zika virus deaths was comparatively small—estimated at two (95% UI 1–5) in 2015 and 19 (4–57) in 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Due to the different composition of drug-resistant types, these numbers are lower than the 13·9% of drug-resistant tuberculosis deaths (multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis combined) among all tuberculosis deaths reported by WHO for the same year.6”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [6] 2016
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Changes in India were most pronounced and driven by inclusion of the much-improved SRS mortality data, which lowered estimates in all years, but particularly earlier years.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Updates in the data collated and improvements to the methodological approach for malaria mortality estimation in the GBD 2016 iteration have resulted in changes in estimates of both contemporary mortality and trends through time.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Two causes—Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, and chronic kidney disease, ranked fourth and 11th, respectively, among the leading causes of death globally—are increasing sources of health burden, particularly for low-SDI to middle-SDI locations; however, the SDG agenda offers at best a minimal platform for drawing attention to the health care and monitoring needs of these conditions.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The improvements in data quality in some large countries, such as Brazil, China, and India, is particularly encouraging.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, estimates of deaths from other pharynx cancers in 2010 at the global level increased by 72·3% for men and by 73·8% for women; most of this increase comes from India.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“As such, the proportional decline in malaria deaths between 2006 and 2015 is now estimated to be 27·9% (95% UI 8·71–42·8), which is smaller than the WHO estimated decline of 42% (33–55).7”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [7] 2016
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Estimates for deaths from Hodgkin’s lymphoma in 2010 increased by 28·1% for men and by 16·8% for women compared with GBD 2015 at the global level. This difference comes mainly from an increase in the mortality estimates for sub-Saharan Africa, where the inclusion of more registry data for Nigeria, Uganda, and other locations changed the estimates.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the global level, estimates for malaria in the most recent years are slightly higher compared with those in GBD 2015, but earlier years were estimated to be lower, including the years of peak global malaria mortality in the early 2000s.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This, together with the addition of SRS data for India and changes to the mortality envelope, has not resulted in major changes to our general conclusions on the global epidemiology of tuberculosis, although the number of deaths at the global level was slightly higher than that of GBD 2015 for all years.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Patterns of global health are clearly changing, with more rapid declines in CMNN conditions than for other diseases and injuries.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Conclusion
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By contrast, some systems, such as those in Egypt, Thailand, and Turkey, have more than 50% of deaths assigned to major garbage categories.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The estimated number of deaths in several African countries have significantly increased; Nigeria and Zambia were notable with more than twice the number of estimated deaths in 2015.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Compared with in GBD 2015, estimated deaths in 2010 due to other neoplasms increased by 20·3% for men and by 5·1% for women. This increase was mainly due to a change in redistribution of myelodysplastic syndrome, which was redistributed to the leukaemia subcauses for GBD 2015, and to other neoplasms for GBD 2016.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Western Europe is an example where the overall death rate due to neonatal disorders in the early neonatal period is quite similar across the region, but there is as much as a three-fold difference in death rates within Level 3 causes (eg, neonatal preterm birth complications, cardiovascular diseases).65,66”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [65] Delnord, 2017, Variations in very preterm birth rates in 30 high-income countries: are valid international comparisons possible using routine data?, BJOG source
- Not checked yetcites [66] Roth, 2017, Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015, J Am Coll Cardiol source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The latest assessment from the Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) group reports estimates for 15 cause groups of child death for 194 countries for the period 2000–15,18”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [18]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All authors had full access to the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Methods > Role of the funding source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“while the Global Health Estimates (GHE) programme through WHO recently published estimates for 176 causes of death for 183 countries from 2000 to 2015.19”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Independent CODEm models were run for each cause of death by sex, and separately for countries with and without extensive complete VR data.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Methods > Cause of death estimation
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These models were then combined into a weighted ensemble model, with models performing best on out-of-sample prediction error of both levels and trends weighted highest.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Methods > Cause of death estimation
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As with each annual cycle of GBD, the entire time series was re-estimated to ensure that all comparisons are made using a consistent dataset and methods; these results, therefore, supersede all previously published GBD cause of death estimates.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Introduction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Interpretation
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Rests on an assumption: Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The funder of the study had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or the writing of the report.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Methods > Role of the funding source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As in GBD 2015, we follow the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) for the development and documentation of GBD 2016 (appendix 1 p 292).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Methods > Overview
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Rapid progress to reduce mortality is possible for some causes, as evidenced by previously documented declines in central Europe for cardiovascular disease death rates or decreasing mortality from malaria in eastern sub-Saharan Africa.3”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] Wang, 2016, Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“International declarations and agreements for development and health have attracted political actions at the highest level but have also generally focused on indicators related to CMNN causes. This focus is reflected in the rapid reductions in CMNN diseases achieved by lower-SDI locations over the past four decades.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Globally, progress has been neither universal nor uniform.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The quality of data available for estimating the global causes of death has improved; with the new rating system reported here, 50 countries had a higher star rating in the most recent period (2010–16) compared with their overall rating since 1980.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing numbers of YLLs and the associated higher prevalence of chronic diseases will drive rising needs for health service provision and pose substantial financial, workforce capacity, and managerial challenges for health systems.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, until the 2015 adoption of the SDGs, NCDs were not strong priorities in these declarations and did not receive equivalent levels of political commitment in many locations.45–47”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] Bollyky, 2015, Understanding the relationships between noncommunicable diseases, unhealthy lifestyles, and country wealth, Health Aff (Millwood) source
- Not checked yetcites [46] Anderson, 2016, Tobacco control progress in low and middle income countries in comparison to high income countries, Int J Environ Res Public Health source
- Not checked yetcites [47] Ly, 2016, Rising mortality associated with hepatitis C virus in the United States, 2003–2013, Clin Infect Dis source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Past studies show the effect of access to high-quality personal health care on both communicable and non-communicable diseases, highlighting the importance of prioritising personal health-care access and quality for all populations across the development spectrum.39–42”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [39] Nolte
- Not checked yetcites [40] Barber, 2017, Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [41] Ford, 2007, Explaining the decrease in U.S. deaths from coronary disease, 1980–2000, N Engl J Med source
- Not checked yetcites [42] Tunstall-Pedoe, 1999, Contribution of trends in survival and coronary-event rates to changes in coronary heart disease mortality: 10-year results from 37 WHO MONICA Project populations, Lancet source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There is no reason to believe that these large differences in the causes of deaths in the first month of life between countries with nearly the same SDI in the same GBD region are real; rather, we strongly suspect there is variation in medical culture in how neonatal deaths are assigned.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
boostedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The continued global increase and expansion of dengue and its four serotypes is a potential indicator of the complex changes that are underway and might be partly related to changes in climate in addition to other factors.61”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [61] Messina, 2014, Global spread of dengue virus types: mapping the 70 year history, Trends Microbiol source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Due to the complexities of the IARC estimates, if the bias in their estimates from underestimated MIRs primarily affects their estimates of incidence or the site-specific mortality estimates is unclear.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Comparison of GBD 2016 to other estimates
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The Globocan project at IARC produces estimates of major cancer types on a periodic basis for 184 countries; IARC estimates do not currently meet GATHER guidelines.15”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Comparison of GBD 2016 to other estimates
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [15] 2017
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The GBD study, as recognised in the GHE 2015 technical paper, remains the “only source of comprehensive uncertainty estimates for mortality by cause.”19”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Comparison of GBD 2016 to other estimates
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition to the role of health care, improvements to the broader social determinants of health might be less developed in low-SDI locations—eg, low-income and middle-income countries lag behind in implementing evidence-based tobacco control regulation.48”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [48] Patz, 2005, Impact of regional climate change on human health, Nature source
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Seventh, a low level of identified garbage coding for a given location does not necessarily indicate quality or accuracy in cause of death certification.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Limitations
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“GBD 2015 estimated MIRs did not capture the likely effects of worse access to treatment in lower-SDI settings; we have revised the MIR data-inclusion and modelling approach to better capture the relationship observed in high-quality registry data between MIR (and implicitly 5-year survival) and health-system access and quality of care.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Tenth, additional sources of uncertainty might not be captured, such as for the covariates used in the models with the exception of the HIV crude death rate.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Limitations
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“WHO has produced cause of death Global Health Estimates (GHE) at the country level with the most recent spanning from 2000 to 2015 for 183 countries and 176 causes of death.19”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Comparison of GBD 2016 to other estimates
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“yet the SDGs are focused on tracking hepatitis B incidence (SDG 3.3.4).”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Cross cutting themes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites SDG 3.3.4
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fifth, sources of VA data vary substantially in terms of the training provided and the instrument used in collecting the data, which might reduce the comparability of cause of death data between locations.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Limitations
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, GBD results are necessarily a combination of data and estimation. Due to lags in reporting, estimates for the most recent years rely more on the modelling process—evidenced by larger median UI by year between 2012 and 2016— as do estimates for locations with low levels of data completeness.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Limitations
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Sixth, our approach to garbage code redistribution is vital to the results presented in GBD 2016—although our methods of redistribution could theoretically contribute bias, we have identified no evidence of this.3”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Limitations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] Wang, 2016, Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, Lancet source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, both VR data and VA data sources depend on how accurately underlying cause of death is assigned and this is complicated by multimorbidities.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Limitations
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is a laudable and welcome reflection of the intense focus of the global health community over the past several decades on improving child survival and reducing pregnancy-related risks.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Conclusion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, these data are still based on VA, which in rigorous validation tests performs well for some causes and not others.63”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Changes in GBD 2016 compared with GBD 2015
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [63] Murray, 2011, Population Health Metrics Research Consortium gold standard verbal autopsy validation study: design, implementation, and development of analysis datasets, Popul Health Metr source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Eighth, while some causes use negative binomial modelling approaches to improve estimation with over-dispersed data, we have not yet developed a standardised empirical approach for selecting causes to use this method.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Limitations
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
The GBD cause hierarchy's categories at each level are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
“The GBD cause list is organised as a hierarchy (appendix 1 p 477), with each level composed of causes of death that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Each death can be assigned to a single underlying cause according to ICD principles.
“For GBD, each death is attributed to a single underlying cause—the cause that initiated the series of events leading to death—in accordance with ICD principles.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Conflict and terrorism are causing reversals in some locations such as Syria and Yemen.
“Other challenges, such as conflict and terrorism, are clearly causing reversals in some locations such as Syria and Yemen.”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is a strong relationship between garbage coding and age.
“Because there is a strong relationship between garbage coding and age, and important demographic shifts are underway, reporting of garbage codes should perhaps in the future be age standardised.”
The paper relies on this without support.
GBD methods generate unbiased estimates even for locations with lower-quality data, and deaths in those locations are not systematically higher or lower than estimated.
“however, even for locations with lower-quality data, our methods support the generation of unbiased estimates and as such we do not expect deaths in these locations to be systematically higher or lower than estimated.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“These methods have been extensively peer reviewed over previous rounds of GBD14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 and concurrently as part of the peer review process for GBD 2023.”
From Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (2025) · cites this paper as [15]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“Opioid use disorder (OUD) is a major public health burden worldwide and is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity (1, 2).”
From Craving in Opioid Use Disorder: From Neurobiology to Clinical Practice (2019) · cites this paper as [1]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Discussion > Main findings
“This transition was characterised by declining rates of CMNN diseases in all SDI quintiles, with faster rates of decline in lower-SDI quintiles.”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global YLLs (by cause)
“Declines in age-standardised YLL rates for CMNN causes over the 37 years examined ranged from 60·6% (95% UI 58·2–64·7) for high SDI locations, 77·0% (73·4–79·9) for high-middle SDI, 74·1% (72·3–76·0) for middle SDI, 69·0% (66·9–70·9) for low-middle SDI, and 58·5% (55·6–61·0) for low SDI.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Results > Global causes of death
“Shifts at age 90 and older were the most substantial, with a 17·8% (95 UI 176–181) increase in the number of deaths in the 90–94 age group”
§ Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 > Abstract > Findings
“a 178% (95% UI 176–181) increase in deaths in ages 90–94 years”
Citations
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Metadata
- Authors
- Naghavi, M., Abajobir, A. A., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., Abd-Allah, F., Abera, S. F., Aboyans, V., Adetokunboh, O., Afshin, A., Agrawal, A., Ahmadi, A., Ahmed, M. B., Aichour, A. N., Aichour, M. T. E., Aichour, I., Aiyar, S., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, K., Alam, N., Alam, T., Alene, K. A., Al-Eyadhy, A., Ali, S. D., Alizadeh-Navaei, R., Alkaabi, J. M., Alkerwi, A., Alla, F., Allebeck, P., Allen, C., Al-Raddadi, R., Alsharif, U., Altirkawi, K. A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amare, A. T., Amini, E., Ammar, W., Amoako, Y. A., Anber, N., Andersen, H. H., Andrei, C. L., Androudi, S., Ansari, H., Antonio, C. A. T., Anwari, P., Ärnlöv, J., Arora, M., Artaman, A., Aryal, K. K., Asayesh, H., Asgedom, S. W., Atey, T. M., Avila-Burgos, L., Avokpaho, E. F. G., Awasthi, A., Babalola, T. K., Bacha, U., Balakrishnan, K., Barac, A., Barboza, M. A., Barker-Collo, S. L., Barquera, S., Barregard, L., Barrero, L. H., Baune, B. T., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Béjot, Y., Bekele, B. B., Bell, M. L., Bennett, J. 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- Zhang, Anthony Lin
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- Murray, Christopher J L
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-09
- Volume
- 390
- Issue
- 10100
- Pages
- 1151-1210
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC5605883
- OpenAlex
- W2753051611
- Semantic Scholar
- 669e743f89ba85e21ac5bf425e09e4719a0fc79d
- Cited by
- 4,821
- References
- 55
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- FWCI
- 1469.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion, cc-by)
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- UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Anglia Ruskin Research Online (Anglia Ruskin University) (submittedVersion)
- Sussex Research Online (University of Sussex) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Murdoch University Research Portal (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Homo Politicus (Academy of Humanities and Economics in Lodz) (submittedVersion)
- Jagiellonian University Repository (Jagiellonian University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Homo Politicus (Academy of Humanities and Economics in Lodz) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RMIT Research Repository (RMIT University Library) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) (submittedVersion)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Own your potential (DEAKIN) (submittedVersion)
- edoc (University of Basel) (submittedVersion)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- eSpace (Curtin University) (submittedVersion)
- Espace ÉTS (ETS) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
- University of Thessaly Institutional Repository (University of Thessaly) (submittedVersion)
- IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome) (submittedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion)
- Opin vísindi (Opin vísindi) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Open Repository and Bibliography (University of Liège) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- PUB – Publications at Bielefeld University (Bielefeld University) (submittedVersion)
- PUB – Publications at Bielefeld University (Bielefeld University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Publikationen an der Universität Bielefeld (Universität Bielefeld) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- CEU Repositorio Institucional (Fundación Universitaria San Pablo CEU) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- CINECA IRIS Institutional Research Information System (University of Bari Aldo Moro) (submittedVersion)
- Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Tampere University Institutional Repository (Tampere University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (201-900/Z/16/Z, 201900)
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0508-10082, NF-SI-0513-10085)
- Medical Research Council (MR/K013351/1, MC_UU_12017/13, MC_UU_12017/15, MR/K00669X/1, MC_UU_12011/2, MC_UU_12011/1)
- National Institute on Aging (P30AG047845)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (T32HL007820)
- National Institute of Mental Health (R01MH110163)
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U01AI096299)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01HD087993)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- cause-specific mortality, premature mortality, years of life lost, age and sex differences, global burden of disease, verbal autopsy, civil registration, data quality assessment, socio-demographic index, non-communicable diseases, infectious diseases, maternal mortality, epidemiological transition, cause of death classification, mortality trends, life expectancy
- MeSH terms
- Global Burden of Disease, Noncommunicable Diseases, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Diseases, Disasters, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Nutrition Disorders, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Complications, Socioeconomic Factors, Global Health, Wounds and Injuries, Age Distribution, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-04, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-04 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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