The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 25 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Changes in physical fitness and changes in mortality
Abstract
Background Point estimates of physical fitness give important information on the risk of death in healthy people, but there is little information available on effects of sequential changes in physical fitness on mortality. We studied this latter aspect in healthy middle-aged men over a total follow-up period of 22 years. Methods 2014 healthy men aged 40-60 years had a bicycle exercise test and clinical examination, and completed a questionnaire in 1972-75 (survey 1). This was repeated for 1756 (91%) of 1932 men still alive by Dec 31, 1982 (survey 2). The exercise scores were adjusted for age. The change in exercise scores between surveys was divided into quartiles (Q1=least fit, Q4=fittest). An adjusted Cox's proportional hazards model was used to study the association between changes in physical fitness and mortality, with the Q1 men used as controls. Findings By Dec 31, 1994, 238 (17%) of the 1428 men had died, 120 from cardiovascular causes. There were 37 deaths in the Q4 group (19 cardiovascular); their relative risks of death were 0.45 (95% CI 0.29-0.69) for any cause and 0.47 (0.26-0.86) for cardiovascular causes. There was a graded, inverse relation between changes in physical fitness and mortality irrespective of physical fitness status at survey 1. Interpretation Change in physical fitness in healthy middle-aged men is a strong predictor of mortality. Even small improvements in physical fitness are associated with a significantly lowered risk of death. If confirmed, these findings should be used to influence public health policy.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Erikssen et al. (165) found similar trend and concluded that even small improvements in physical fitness are associated with a significantly lowered risk of death.”
From Lack of Exercise Is a Major Cause of Chronic Diseases (2012) · cites this paper as [165]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Physical Activity, All-Cause Mortality, and Longevity of College Alumni
Paffenbarger, R. S., Hyde, R., Wing, A. L., & Hsieh, C.-C. (1986) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198603063141003 · Cited by 2,742
Physical Fitness and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Study of Healthy Men and Women
Blair, S. N. (1989) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1989.03430170057028 · Cited by 2,658
Evidence-based health policy—lessons from the Global Burden of Disease Study
Murray, C. J. L., & Lopez, A. D. (1996) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.274.5288.740 · Cited by 2,178
Paffenbarger, R. S., Hyde, R. T., Wing, A. L., Lee, I.-M., Jung, D. L., & Kampert, J. B. (1993) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm199302253280804 · Cited by 1,972
Blair, S. N. (1996) · JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association · doi:10.1001/jama.1996.03540030039029 · Cited by 1,819
Physical Activity and the Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease
Powell, K. E., Thompson, P. D., Caspersen, C. J., & Kendrick, J. S. (1987) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev.pu.08.050187.001345 · Cited by 1,457
Leon, A. S. (1987) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.258.17.2388 · Cited by 842
Physical Fitness as a Predictor of Mortality among Healthy, Middle-Aged Norwegian Men
Sandvik, L., Erikssen, J., Thaulow, E., Erikssen, G., Mundal, R., & Rodahl, K. (1993) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm199302253280803 · Cited by 788
Self-citationPhysical Fitness as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Mortality in Asymptomatic North American Men
Ekelund, L.-G., Haskell, W. L., Johnson, J. L., Whaley, F. S., Criqui, M. H., Sheps, D. S., & Study, T. L. R. C. M. F.-U. (1988) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198811243192104 · Cited by 682
Physical activity and the risk of breast cancer
Thune, I., Brenn, T., Lund, E., & Gaard, M. (1997) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm199705013361801 · Cited by 569
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- 1995, Physical activity and cardiovascular risk: review in depth, J Cardiovasc Risk, 2, 285
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Health benefits of physical activity: the evidence
Warburton, D. E. R. (2006) · Canadian Medical Association Journal · doi:10.1503/cmaj.051351 · Cited by 8,007
Lack of Exercise Is a Major Cause of Chronic Diseases
Booth, F. W., Roberts, C. K., & Laye, M. J. (2012) · Comprehensive Physiology · doi:10.1002/cphy.c110025 · Cited by 2,575
Sedentary Behavior, Exercise, and Cardiovascular Health
Lavie, C. J., Ozemek, C., Carbone, S., Katzmarzyk, P. T., & Blair, S. N. (2019) · Circulation Research · doi:10.1161/circresaha.118.312669 · Cited by 1,735
Is physical activity or physical fitness more important in defining health benefits?
Blair, S. N., Cheng, Y. J., & HOLDER, J. S. (2001) · Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise · doi:10.1097/00005768-200106001-00007 · Cited by 1,140
The role of exercise and PGC1α in inflammation and chronic disease
Handschin, C., & Spiegelman, B. M. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature07206 · Cited by 1,083
Metadata
- Authors
- Erikssen, G., Liestøl, K., Bjørnholt, J., Thaulow, E., Sandvik, L., & Erikssen, J.
- Affiliations
- Akershus University Hospital (NO)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- Oslo University Hospital (NO)
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1998-09
- Volume
- 352
- Issue
- 9130
- Pages
- 759-762
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W2038621442
- Cited by
- 464
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 29 · 2012: 22
- FWCI
- 8.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Physical Activity and Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology (medical) › Cardiovascular and exercise physiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Effects of Exercise
- Keywords
- physical fitness, mortality, cardiovascular mortality, middle-aged men, exercise capacity, bicycle exercise test, fitness change, mortality prediction, public health policy
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Exercise Test, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Neoplasms, Physical Fitness, Risk, Proportional Hazards Models
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review