Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models
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If a full model is estimated by matching historical trajectories, calibration varies model parameters to match observed patterns even if those patterns resulted from external noise, causing mis-specified parameters even if overall behavior appears to fit empirical trends.
“If the full model is then estimated by matching the historical trajectories, the calibration processes varies the model parameters to match the observed patterns, even if those patterns have resulted from external noise that we cannot replicate within the model. As a result, the model parameters would be mis-specified even if the overall behavior appears to fit the empirical trends (40).”
From Modeling the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis: A review and extension (2015) · cites this paper as [40]
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- Authors
- Oliva, R.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Oliva, Rogelio
- ORCID
- Oliva, Rogelio
- Venue
- European Journal of Operational Research
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2003-12
- Volume
- 151
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 552-568
- ISSN
- 0377-2217 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2150086489
- Cited by
- 314
- References
- 68
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 21 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 27 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 7.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- European Journal of Operational Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Simulation Techniques and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computational Theory and Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation Systems
- Keywords
- system dynamics modeling, model calibration, model testing, hypothesis testing, structure-behavior relationship, parameter estimation, model validation, decision-making
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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