Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
Open accessAbstract
Background The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013.Methods We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990 and 2013. We evaluated attributable DALYs for 17 risk factors (air pollution and environmental, dietary, physical activity, tobacco smoke, and physiological) and six clusters of risk factors by use of three inputs: risk factor exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. For most risk factors, we synthesised data for exposure with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. We based relative risks on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks, such as high body-mass index (BMI), through other risks, such as high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high total cholesterol.Findings Globally, 90·5% (95% UI 88·5-92·2) of the stroke burden (as measured in DALYs) was attributable to the modifiable risk factors analysed, including 74·2% (95% UI 70·7-76·7) due to behavioural factors (smoking, poor diet, and low physical activity). Clusters of metabolic factors (high SBP, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and low glomerular filtration rate; 72·4%, 95% UI 70·2-73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4-34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2-29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes in the proportion of stroke burden due to behavioural, environmental, and metabolic risk clusters, in the low-income and middle-income countries, the PAF of behavioural risk clusters in males was greater than in females. The PAF of all risk factors increased from 1990 to 2013 (except for second-hand smoking and household air pollution from solid fuels) and varied significantly between countries.Interpretation Our results suggest that more than 90% of the stroke burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors, and achieving control of behavioural and metabolic risk factors could avert more than three-quarters of the global stroke burden. Air pollution has emerged as a significant contributor to global stroke burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and therefore reducing exposure to air pollution should be one of the main priorities to reduce stroke burden in these countries.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Columbia University, Health Research Council of New Zealand, Brain Research New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence, and National Science Challenge, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment of New Zealand.
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LMICs now bear a double burden of undernutrition and overnutrition.
“More recently, there has been an epidemiological transition in LMICs, since these countries now bear a double burden of undernutrition and overnutrition.77,78”
From Nutrition in adolescents: physiology, metabolism, and nutritional needs (2017) · cites this paper as [77]
The Results (page unavailable in our copy) identify high BMI as a major stroke risk factor in low- and middle-income countries, which supports the overnutrition side of the claim. The paper does not establish that these countries also bear a burden of undernutrition or describe the claimed double burden; its findings concern stroke risks rather than nutrition status generally. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredHypertension is the single most important risk factor for ischemic as well as hemorrhagic stroke.
“Hypertension is the single most important risk factor for ischemic as well as hemorrhagic stroke.”
From São Paulo call to action for the prevention and control of high blood pressure: 2020 (2019) · cites this paper as [9]
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- Authors
- Feigin, V. L., Roth, G. A., Naghavi, M., Parmar, P., Krishnamurthi, R., Chugh, S., Mensah, G. A., Norrving, B., Shiue, I., Ng, M., Estep, K., Cercy, K., Murray, C. J. L., & Forouzanfar, M. H.
- Affiliations
- Auckland University of Technology (NZ)
- University of Washington (US)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- Lund University (SE)
- Northumbria University (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Feigin, Valery L
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet Neurology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2016-08
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 913-924
- ISSN
- 1474-4422 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2412702708
- Semantic Scholar
- 15ec96a7b3e38579b170d4f7c6029159bd1e8808
- Cited by
- 1,691
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2026: 54 · 2025: 106 · 2024: 139 · 2023: 173 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 201 · 2020: 199 · 2019: 194 · 2018: 147 · 2017: 268 · 2016: 20
- FWCI
- 172.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet Neurology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Tuwhera (Auckland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion)
- Northumbria Research Link (Northumbria University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- American Heart Association
- Yale University
- University of Miami
- University of Washington
- Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin Research Institute
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra
- York University
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0510-10060, RP-PG-0407-10184)
- King's College London
- National University of Singapore
- Monash University
- University of Adelaide
- Gentofte Hospital
- Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
- Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
- Sichuan University
- Rigshospitalet
- Universidade de São Paulo
- Wuhan University
- National Research University Higher School of Economics
- University of Peradeniya
- Brain Research New Zealand
- National Institutes of Health
- School of Medicine, New York University
- Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine
- Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami
- Health Research Council of New Zealand
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (K08HL089675)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
- Keywords
- stroke, modifiable risk factors, population attributable fraction, disability-adjusted life years, behavioral risk factors, smoking, physical inactivity, dietary risk factors, air pollution, occupational risk factors, metabolic risk factors, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, glomerular filtration rate, risk factor clustering, stroke prevention, low- and middle-income countries
- MeSH terms
- Global Burden of Disease, Female, Humans, Male, Risk Factors, Global Health, Stroke
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