Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
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Background In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3.4 million deaths, 3.9% of years of life lost, and 3.8% of DALYs globally. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparative, up-to-date information on levels and trends is essential both to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision-makers to prioritize action. Methods We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n = 1,769) that included information on height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. Mixed effects linear regression was used to correct for the bias in self-reports. Age-sex-country-year observations (n = 19,244) on prevalence of obesity and overweight were synthesized using a spatio-temporal Gaussian Process Regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings Globally, the proportion of adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 or greater increased from 28.8% (95% UI: 28.4-29.3) in 1980 to 36.9% (36.3-37.4) in 2013 for men and from 29.8% (29.3-30.2) to 38.0% (37.5-38.5) for women. Increases were observed in both developed and developing countries. There have been substantial increases in prevalence among children and adolescents in developed countries, with 23.8% (22.9-24.7) of boys and 22.6% (21.7-23.6) of girls being either overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity is also rising among children and adolescents in developing countries as well, rising from 8.1% (7.7-8.6) to 12.9% (12.3-13.5) in 2013 for boys and from 8.4% (8.1-8.8) to 13.4% (13.0-13.9) in girls. Among adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeds 50% among men in Tonga and women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has stabilized. Interpretation Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Contrary to other major global risks, there is little evidence of successful population-level intervention strategies to reduce exposure. Not only is obesity increasing, but there are no national success stories over the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is required to assist countries to more effectively intervene.
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Obesity is clearly a driver of the rise in young-onset type 2 diabetes, and lifestyle changes explain much of the increased obesity and type 2 diabetes prevalence in pre-adult and early adult life.
“Although the causes of obesity in children and adolescents are complex, obesity is clearly a driver for the upsurge in T2DMY and changes in lifestyle account for much of the increased prevalence of obesity and T2DM in pre-and early-adult life 38 .”
From Type 2 diabetes in adolescents and young adults (2018) · cites this paper as [38]
The Discussion (page not provided) says rising overweight and obesity can drive up diabetes, and the Results report increasing obesity at younger ages. It does not establish a rise in young-onset type 2 diabetes specifically. The Discussion lists diet and physical activity among possible contributors to obesity but explicitly says the analysis does not measure their relative contributions, so it does not support the claim that lifestyle changes explain much of the increase. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRefined sugar intake among adults in the United States has risen by more than 30% over the past three decades.
“A 2014 study indicated that refined sugar intake among adults in the United States has risen by more than 30% over the past three decennia [71].”
From A Cross-Talk between Diet and the Oral Microbiome: Balance of Nutrition on Inflammation and Immune System’s Response during Periodontitis (2022) · cites this paper as [71]
A 2014 study estimated that added sugar consumption among adults in the United States has increased by more than 30% over the last 3 decades alone.
“A 2014 study estimated that added sugar consumption among adults in the US has increased by more than 30% over the last 3 decades alone.”
From The oral microbiome: Role of key organisms and complex networks in oral health and disease (2021) · cites this paper as [283]
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- Authors
- Ng, M., Fleming, T., Robinson, M., Thomson, B., Graetz, N., Margono, C., Mullany, E. C., Biryukov, S., Abbafati, C., Abera, S. F., Abraham, J. P., Abu-Rmeileh, N. M. E., Achoki, T., AlBuhairan, F. S., Alemu, Z. A., Alfonso, R., Ali, M. K., Ali, R., Guzman, N. A., Ammar, W., Anwari, P., Banerjee, A., Barquera, S., Basu, S., Bennett, D. A., Bhutta, Z., Blore, J., Cabral, N., Nonato, I. C., Chang, J.-C., Chowdhury, R., Courville, K. J., Criqui, M. H., Cundiff, D. K., Dabhadkar, K. C., Dandona, L., Davis, A., Dayama, A., Dharmaratne, S. D., Ding, E. L., Durrani, A. M., Esteghamati, A., Farzadfar, F., Fay, D. F. J., Feigin, V. L., Flaxman, A., Forouzanfar, M. H., Goto, A., Green, M. A., Gupta, R., Hafezi-Nejad, N., Hankey, G. J., Harewood, H. C., Havmoeller, R., Hay, S., Hernandez, L., Husseini, A., Idrisov, B. T., Ikeda, N., Islami, F., Jahangir, E., Jassal, S. K., Jee, S. H., Jeffreys, M., Jonas, J. B., Kabagambe, E. K., Khalifa, S. E. A. H., Kengne, A. P., Khader, Y. S., Khang, Y.-H., Kim, D., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinge, J. M., Kokubo, Y., Kosen, S., Kwan, G., Lai, T., Leinsalu, M., Li, Y., Liang, X., Liu, S., Logroscino, G., Lotufo, P. A., Lu, Y., Ma, J., Mainoo, N. K., Mensah, G. A., Merriman, T. R., Mokdad, A. H., Moschandreas, J., Naghavi, M., Naheed, A., Nand, D., Narayan, K. M. V., Nelson, E. L., Neuhouser, M. L., Nisar, M. I., Ohkubo, T., Oti, S. O., Pedroza, A., Prabhakaran, D., Roy, N., Sampson, U., Seo, H., Sepanlou, S. G., Shibuya, K., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Singh, G. M., Singh, J. A., Skirbekk, V., Stapelberg, N. J. C., Sturua, L., Sykes, B. L., Tobias, M., Tran, B. X., Trasande, L., Toyoshima, H., van de Vijver, S., Vasankari, T. J., Veerman, J. L., Velasquez-Melendez, G., Vlassov, V. V., Vollset, S. E., Vos, T., Wang, C., Wang, X., Weiderpass, E., Werdecker, A., Wright, J. L., Yang, Y. C., Yatsuya, H., Yoon, J., Yoon, S.-J., Zhao, Y., Zhou, M., Zhu, S., Lopez, A. D., Murray, C. J. L., & Gakidou, E.
- Affiliations
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (US)
- Sapienza University of Rome (IT)
- Mekelle University (ET)
- King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences (SA)
- Debre Markos University (ET)
- University of Washington (US)
- Emory University (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Ministry of Public Health (LB)
- United Nations Population Fund (US)
- University of Birmingham (GB)
- Stanford University (US)
- Aga Khan University (PK)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Universidade da Região de Joinville (BR)
- National Taiwan University (TW)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Public Health England (GB)
- University of Peradeniya (LK)
- Harvard University (US)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- Tehran University of Medical Sciences (IR)
- Auckland University of Technology (NZ)
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine (JP)
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- Fortis Escorts Hospital (IN)
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- Karolinska Institutet (SE)
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
- Birzeit University (PS)
- Brandeis University (US)
- National Institute of Health and Nutrition (JP)
- American Cancer Society (US)
- Ochsner Medical Center (US)
- Yonsei University (KR)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- Vanderbilt University (US)
- Supreme Council Of Health (QA)
- Jordan University of Science and Technology (JO)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Northeastern University (US)
- Simmons University (US)
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO)
- National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (JP)
- Boston Medical Center (US)
- National Institute for Health Development (EE)
- Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention (CN)
- University of Bari Aldo Moro (IT)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (US)
- University of Otago (NZ)
- University of Crete (GR)
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (BD)
- Ministry Of Health (FJ)
- Fred Hutch Cancer Center (US)
- Teikyo University (JP)
- African Population and Health Research Center (KE)
- Centre for Chronic Disease Control (IN)
- Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (IN)
- Digestive Disease Research Institute (IR)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health (FI)
- Heriot-Watt University (GB)
- University of Alabama at Birmingham (US)
- Griffith University (AU)
- National Center for Disease Control and Public Health (GE)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- New York University (US)
- Anjo Kosei Hospital (JP)
- Urho Kaleva Kekkonen Institute (FI)
- Columbia University (US)
- Shandong University (CN)
- Philipps University of Marburg (DE)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Fujita Health University (JP)
- Korea University (KR)
- Chongqing Medical University (CN)
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention (CN)
- Zhejiang University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Gakidou, Emmanuela
- ORCID
- Ng, Marie
- Thomson, Blake
- Graetz, Nicholas
- Abbafati, Cristiana
- Abera, Semaw Ferede
- Abraham, Jerry P
- Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E
- Achoki, Tom
- AlBuhairan, Fadia S
- Alfonso, Rafael
- Ali, Mohammed K
- Ali, Raghib
- Ammar, Walid
- Anwari, Palwasha
- Banerjee, Amitava
- Basu, Sanjay
- Bennett, Derrick A
- Bhutta, Zulfiqar
- Blore, Jed
- Cabral, Norberto
- Chang, Jung-Chen
- Chowdhury, Rajiv
- Courville, Karen J
- Criqui, Michael H
- Cundiff, David K
- Dandona, Lalit
- Davis, Adrian
- Dharmaratne, Samath D
- Ding, Eric L
- Esteghamati, Alireza
- Farzadfar, Farshad
- Feigin, Valery L
- Flaxman, Abraham
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
- Goto, Atsushi
- Green, Mark A
- Hankey, Graeme J
- Harewood, Heather C
- Hay, Simon
- Husseini, Abdullatif
- Idrisov, Bulat T
- Ikeda, Nayu
- Islami, Farhad
- Jahangir, Eiman
- Jassal, Simerjot K
- Jee, Sun Ha
- Jeffreys, Mona
- Jonas, Jost B
- Kabagambe, Edmond K
- Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan
- Khader, Yousef Saleh
- Khang, Young-Ho
- Kim, Daniel
- Kimokoti, Ruth W
- Kokubo, Yoshihiro
- Kosen, Soewarta
- Kwan, Gene
- Lai, Taavi
- Leinsalu, Mall
- Liang, Xiaofeng
- Liu, Shiwei
- Logroscino, Giancarlo
- Lotufo, Paulo A
- Lu, Yuan
- Mensah, George A
- Merriman, Tony R
- Mokdad, Ali H
- Moschandreas, Joanna
- Naghavi, Mohsen
- Naheed, Aliya
- Narayan, K M Venkat
- Neuhouser, Marian L
- Nisar, Muhammad Imran
- Ohkubo, Takayoshi
- Oti, Samuel O
- Prabhakaran, Dorairaj
- Roy, Nobhojit
- Sepanlou, Sadaf G
- Shibuya, Kenji
- Shiri, Rahman
- Shiue, Ivy
- Singh, Gitanjali M
- Singh, Jasvinder A
- Skirbekk, Vegard
- Stapelberg, Nicolas J C
- Sturua, Lela
- Sykes, Bryan L
- Tran, Bach X
- Trasande, Leonardo
- Vasankari, Tommi J
- Vos, Theo
- Wang, XiaoRong
- Weiderpass, Elisabete
- Werdecker, Andrea
- Wright, Jonathan L
- Yang, Y Claire
- Yatsuya, Hiroshi
- Yoon, Seok-Jun
- Zhao, Yong
- Zhou, Maigeng
- Zhu, Shankuan
- Murray, Christopher J L
- Gakidou, Emmanuela
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2014-08
- Volume
- 384
- Issue
- 9945
- Pages
- 766-781
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC4624264
- OpenAlex
- W2163710303
- Semantic Scholar
- a08425b9eb5241904ac17edc533989c98a07b966
- Cited by
- 11,952
- References
- 69
- Citations by year
- 2026: 244 · 2025: 457 · 2024: 603 · 2023: 697 · 2022: 961 · 2021: 1127 · 2020: 1358 · 2019: 1350 · 2018: 1411 · 2017: 1363 · 2016: 1236 · 2015: 889 · 2014: 234 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 1228.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Tuwhera (Auckland University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome) (submittedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion)
- CINECA IRIS Institutional Research Information System (University of Bari Aldo Moro) (submittedVersion)
- Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Vanderbilt University
- Simmons College
- Emory University
- University of Washington
- Brandeis University
- Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand
- Wellcome Trust (095066)
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine
- Birzeit University
- Ochsner Health
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0512-10165)
- British Heart Foundation (RG/08/014/24067)
- University of Oxford
- University of Bristol
- South African Medical Research Council
- Public Health Foundation of India
- Universität Heidelberg
- Public Health England
- Seoul National University
- Yonsei University
- Jordan University of Science and Technology
- Karolinska Institutet
- Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services
- National Taiwan University
- University of Peradeniya
- Mekelle University
- King Abdullah International Medical Research Center
- Debre Markos University
- National Institutes of Health
- University of California, San Diego
- College of Medicine, Seoul National University
- Medical Research Council (MR/L003120/1)
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (24590785)
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health
- National Institute on Aging (P30AG017253)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute
- National Cancer Institute (P50CA058223)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD050924)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer Risks and Factors
- Keywords
- childhood obesity, adult obesity, overweight prevalence, obesity prevalence trends, body mass index, global prevalence estimates, spatio-temporal regression, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, developing countries, developed countries, sex differences in obesity, obesity prevention policy
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Female, Humans, Male, Models, Theoretical, Obesity, Regression Analysis, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Overweight
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