Trends in incidence of youth-onset type 1 and type 2 diabetes in the USA, 2002–18: results from the population-based SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study
Open accessAbstract
Background The incidence of diabetes is increasing in children and young people. We aimed to describe the incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in children and young people aged younger than 20 years over a 17-year period. Methods The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study identified children and young people aged 0-19 years with a physician diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 diabetes at five centres in the USA between 2002 and 2018. Eligible participants included non-military and non-institutionalised individuals who resided in one of the study areas at the time of diagnosis. The number of children and young people at risk of diabetes was obtained from the census or health plan member counts. Generalised autoregressive moving average models were used to examine trends, and data are presented as incidence of type 1 diabetes per 100 000 children and young people younger than 20 years and incidence of type 2 diabetes per 100 000 children and young people aged between 10 years and younger than 20 years across categories of age, sex, race or ethnicity, geographical region, and month or season of diagnosis. Findings We identified 18 169 children and young people aged 0-19 years with type 1 diabetes in 85 million person-years and 5293 children and young people aged 10-19 years with type 2 diabetes in 44 million person-years. In 2017-18, the annual incidence of type 1 diabetes was 22·2 per 100 000 and that of type 2 diabetes was 17·9 per 100 000. The model for trend captured both a linear effect and a moving-average effect, with a significant increasing (annual) linear effect for both type 1 diabetes (2·02% [95% CI 1·54-2·49]) and type 2 diabetes (5·31% [4·46-6·17]). Children and young people from racial and ethnic minority groups such as non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic children and young people had greater increases in incidence for both types of diabetes. Peak age at diagnosis was 10 years (95% CI 8-11) for type 1 diabetes and 16 years (16-17) for type 2 diabetes. Season was significant for type 1 diabetes (p=0·0062) and type 2 diabetes (p=0·0006), with a January peak in diagnoses of type 1 diabetes and an August peak in diagnoses of type 2 diabetes. Interpretation The increasing incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in children and young people in the USA will result in an expanding population of young adults at risk of developing early complications of diabetes whose health-care needs will exceed those of their peers. Findings regarding age and season of diagnosis will inform focused prevention efforts. Funding US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and US National Institutes of Health.
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In the last decade, the incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents has increased dramatically, especially in certain high-risk racial, ethnic, and ancestral subgroups.
“In the last decade, the incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents has increased dramatically, especially in certain high-risk racial, ethnic, and ancestral subgroups (115).”
From 2. Diagnosis and classification of diabetes: standards of care in diabetes-2025 (2025) · cites this paper as [115]
The Results report that youth type 2 diabetes incidence rose from 9.0 to 17.9 cases per 100,000 per year between 2002–03 and 2017–18, with the largest annual increases among Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Black youth. The Discussion says these findings give evidence for a rise in prevalence, but the paper does not establish a dramatic prevalence increase or show that prevalence rose especially in those subgroups. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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Trends in diabetes incidence in Austria 2013–2017
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Decoding the Significance of Alpha Cell Function in the Pathophysiology of Type 1 Diabetes
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Prediction Models for Diabetes in Children and Adolescents: A Review
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Young‐onset type 2 diabetes—Epidemiology, pathophysiology, and management
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High rate of complications in a real-world cohort of youth with T2D: a multicenter analysis
Patel, D., SHAH, A. S., Magella, B., Bahrainian, M., Brown, E. A., Liu, T. Y. A., Shah, V. S., Channa, R., & Wolf, R. M. (2025) · Journal of Diabetes and its Complications · doi:10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2025.109091 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Self-citationRisk Factors for Progression to Type 2 Diabetes in a Pediatric Prediabetes Clinic Population
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Self-citationSellers, E. A. C., McLeod, L., Prior, H. J., Drăgan, R., Wicklow, B. A., & Ruth, C. (2024) · Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice · doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2024.111097 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
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Zhang, X., Zhu, Z., Tang, G., & Xu, H. (2023) · The Journal of Sexual Medicine · doi:10.1093/jsxmed/qdad104 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Chuang, S.-T., Alcazar, O., Watts, B. M., Abdulreda, M. H., & Buchwald, P. (2024) · Frontiers in Immunology · doi:10.3389/fimmu.2024.1484425 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Diabetes Complications in the U.S.: Following the Data to Guide Comprehensive Action
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Molecular and Inflammatory Etiologies of β-Cell Dysfunction in Type 1 Diabetes
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Adipose Tissue as a Target for Precision Medicine Approaches in Childhood Obesity
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Social Determinants of Health Screening in Type 1 Diabetes Management
Jones, N. Y., Cole, I., Hart, K. J., Corathers, S. D., Agarwal, S., Odugbesan, O., Ebekozien, O. A., Kamboj, M. K., Harris, M. A., Fantasia, K. L., et al. (2023) · Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinics of North America · doi:10.1016/j.ecl.2023.09.006 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
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Insulin Dynamics and Pathophysiology in Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes
Abu-Nejem, R., & Hannon, T. S. (2024) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/clinem/dgae463 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
The Extracellular Matrix Promotes Diabetic Oral Wound Healing by Modulating the Microenvironment
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Xie, R., Li, T., Gao, H., Xie, C., Yuan, H., & Feng, Z. (2025) · Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism · doi:10.1111/dom.16384 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Kesharwani, A., Sree, B. K., Singh, N., Gajbhiye, R. L., Murti, K., Peraman, R., Pandey, K., Limoli, C. L., Velayutham, R., & Parihar, V. K. (2025) · ACS Pharmacology & Translational Science · doi:10.1021/acsptsci.5c00046 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Huang, J., Zheng, J., Pan, X., Qiao, J., Wang, Y., & Shan, P. (2025) · Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice · doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112349 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Increasing incidence of early-onset type 2 diabetes in Sweden 2006–2021
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Treatment With Canagliflozin Versus Placebo in Children and Adolescents With Type 2 Diabetes
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Clinical Features and HLA Genetics Differ in Children at Type 1 Diabetes Onset by Hispanic Ethnicity
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Making America Healthy Again: Remedies for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Campaign against Chronic Disease
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Diabetic Retinopathy in Youths—A Potentially Unappreciated Public Health Catastrophe
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Review of Monogenic Diabetes: Clinical Features and Precision Medicine in Genetic Forms of Diabetes
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- Authors
- Wagenknecht, L. E., Lawrence, J. M., Isom, S., Jensen, E. T., Dabelea, D., Liese, A. D., Dolan, L. M., Shah, A. S., Bellatorre, A., Sauder, K., Marcovina, S., Reynolds, K., Pihoker, C., Imperatore, G., & Divers, J.
- Affiliations
- Wake Forest University Health Sciences (US)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- University of Colorado Anschutz (US)
- University of South Carolina (US)
- Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (US)
- Medpace (United States) (US)
- Kaiser Permanente (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- NYU Grossman Long Island School of Medicine (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-04
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 242-250
- ISSN
- 2213-8587 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10091237
- OpenAlex
- W4322603974
- Cited by
- 264
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 73 · 2025: 114 · 2024: 60 · 2023: 17
- FWCI
- 43.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/open-access/userlicense/1.0/ (am, 173 d)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-017 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-037 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-012 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-029 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-004 (stm-asf)
- Locations
- The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U18DP006131, U18DP006133, U18DP006134, U18DP006136, U18DP006138, U18DP006139)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, youth-onset diabetes, incidence trends, children and young people, SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth, racial and ethnic disparities, age at diagnosis, sex differences, non-Hispanic Black youth, Latino youth, diabetes risk factors, physical inactivity, family history of diabetes, environmental risk factors
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Child, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Ethnicity, Humans, Infant, Minority Groups, United States, Incidence, Young Adult
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