Incidence trends of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youths, 2002–2012
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Diagnoses of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in youths present a substantial clinical and public health burden. The prevalence of these diseases increased in the 2001-2009 period, but data on recent incidence trends are lacking. METHODS: We ascertained cases of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus at five study centers in the United States. Denominators (4.9 million youths annually) were obtained from the U.S. Census or health-plan member counts. After the calculation of annual incidence rates for the 2002-2012 period, we analyzed trends using generalized autoregressive moving-average models with 2-year moving averages. RESULTS: A total of 11,245 youths with type 1 diabetes (0 to 19 years of age) and 2846 with type 2 diabetes (10 to 19 years of age) were identified. Overall unadjusted estimated incidence rates of type 1 diabetes increased by 1.4% annually (from 19.5 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2002-2003 to 21.7 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2011-2012, P=0.03). In adjusted pairwise comparisons, the annual rate of increase was greater among Hispanics than among non-Hispanic whites (4.2% vs. 1.2%, P<0.001). Overall unadjusted incidence rates of type 2 diabetes increased by 7.1% annually (from 9.0 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2002-2003 to 12.5 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2011-2012, P<0.001 for trend across race or ethnic group, sex, and age subgroups). Adjusted pairwise comparisons showed that the relative annual increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes among non-Hispanic whites (0.6%) was lower than that among non-Hispanic blacks, Asians or Pacific Islanders, and Native Americans (P<0.05 for all comparisons) and that the annual rate of increase among Hispanics differed significantly from that among Native Americans (3.1% vs. 8.9%, P=0.01). After adjustment for age, sex, and race or ethnic group, the relative annual increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes was 1.8% (P<0.001) and that of type 2 diabetes was 4.8% (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The incidences of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youths increased significantly in the 2002-2012 period, particularly among youths of minority racial and ethnic groups. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).
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Globally, type 1 diabetes is increasing in incidence and prevalence, with overall annual increases in incidence of about 2-3% per year.
“Globally, type 1 diabetes is increasing both in incidence and prevalence, with overall annual increases in incidence of about 2–3% per year.29,30”
From Type 1 diabetes (2018) · cites this paper as [30]
The Introduction reports that type 1 diabetes incidence has increased worldwide, and the Discussion notes increased prevalence among U.S. youths. The Results report a 1.8% adjusted annual increase in incidence among U.S. youths, not a global increase of 2–3% per year; the paper does not establish a global prevalence trend. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe SEARCH study found an annual 7.1% rise in type 2 diabetes incidence among US 10-19 year olds, from 9 per 100,000 in 2002-2003 to 12.5 per 100,000 in 2011-2012, with significant relative increases in all ethnic groups compared with non-Hispanic Whites.
“Recent data from the SEARCH study showed an annual increase of 7.1% in the incidence of T2DM (9 cases per 100,000 in 2002 -2003 to 12.5 cases per 100,000 in 2011-2012) amongst 10-19 year olds in the USA with significant relative increases in all ethnic groups compared to non Hispanic Whites 6 .”
From Type 2 diabetes in adolescents and young adults (2018) · cites this paper as [6]
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredInsulin resistance is directly related to a higher percentage of fat in muscle and liver across all age groups.
“However, IR is directly related to an increased percentage of fat in muscle and liver in all age groups 6 ,”
From Type 2 diabetes in adolescents and young adults (2018) · cites this paper as [6]
The Discussion (page unavailable) says that changes in obesity prevalence among youths may contribute to changes in insulin resistance. It does not address fat percentages in muscle or liver, a direct relationship with insulin resistance, or all age groups; searches for muscle and liver fat found no such passage. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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“5% of the world’s population, with the incidence of DM among youths also significantly increasing (5, 13, 14).”
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Ferrara, C. T., Geyer, S. M., Evans-Molina, C., Libman, I. M., Becker, D. J., Wentworth, J. M., Moran, A., Gitelman, S. E., Redondo, M. J., & Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Study Group (2017) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/jc.2017-01490 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Yaribeygi, H., Farrokhi, F. R., Abdalla, M. A., Sathyapalan, T., Banach, M., Jamialahmadi, T., & Sahebkar, A. (2021) · Journal of Diabetes Research · doi:10.1155/2021/6518221 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Lee, J. M., Rusnak, A., Garrity, A., Hirschfeld, E., Thomas, I. H., Wichorek, M., Lee, J. E., Rioles, N. A., Ebekozien, O., & Corathers, S. D. (2021) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.31278 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Diabetes care barriers, use, and health outcomes in younger adults with type 1 and type 2 diabetes
Pihoker, C., Braffett, B. H., Songer, T. J., Herman, W. H., Tung, M., Kuo, S., Bellatorre, A., Isganaitis, E., Jensen, E. T., Divers, J., et al. (2023) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.12147 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationToffanin, C., Magni, L., & Cobelli, C. (2021) · IEEE Transactions on Medical Robotics and Bionics · doi:10.1109/tmrb.2021.3075775 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Monaghan, M., Mara, C. A., Kichler, J. C., Westen, S. C., Rawlinson, A., Jacobsen, L. M., Adams, R. N., Stone, J. Y., Hood, K. K., & Mulvaney, S. A. (2021) · Canadian Journal of Diabetes · doi:10.1016/j.jcjd.2021.01.011 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Castellanos, L. E., Russell, S. J., Damiano, E. R., Beck, R. W., Shah, V. N., Bailey, R., Calhoun, P., Bird, K., Mauras, N., Bionic Pancreas Research Group, et al. (2023) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc22-1478 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Shao, H., Thorpe, L. E., Islam, S., Bian, J., Guo, Y., Li, P., Bost, S., Dabelea, D., Conway, R., Crume, T., et al. (2025) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc24-1972 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Mayer-Davis, E. J., Lawrence, J. M., Dabelea, D., Divers, J., Isom, S., Dolan, L., Imperatore, G., Linder, B., Marcovina, S., Pettitt, D. J., Pihoker, C., Saydah, S., & Wagenknecht, L.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2017-04-13
- Volume
- 376
- Issue
- 15
- Pages
- 1419-1429
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC5592722
- OpenAlex
- W2606106417
- Cited by
- 1,476
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 57 · 2025: 109 · 2024: 114 · 2023: 160 · 2022: 194 · 2021: 236 · 2020: 223 · 2019: 181 · 2018: 152 · 2017: 48 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 109.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (UL1TR001111, UL1TR002489)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (UC4DK108173, P30DK056350)
- National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (U01 DP-000247, U18 DP-002709, U18 DP006134, U18-DP-002708, U01-DP000246, U01-DP-000250, U01-DP-000254, U18 DP002714, U18 DP006139, U01 DP000248, U18 DP006138, U18 DP006136, U18 DP006131, U18 DP006133, U01DP000244, U18 DP002710)
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, diabetes incidence trends, youth, adolescents, Latino youth, racial and ethnic disparities, incidence rates, diabetes prevalence, diabetes self-management education, health care costs, health care utilization, diabetes complications, diabetes mortality, Diabetes Prevention Program
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Child, Child, Preschool, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Ethnicity, Female, Humans, Infant, Male, United States, Incidence, Young Adult
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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