The DOI matches its Crossref record; 26 of the 26 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
Abstract
Executive Summary This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated, ‘near-term’ change and the projected changes below are for the period 2016–2035 relative to the reference period 1986–2005. Atmospheric composition (apart from CO 2 ; see Chapter 12) and air quality projections through to 2100 are also assessed. Decadal Prediction The nonlinear and chaotic nature of the climate system imposes natual limits on the extent to which skilful predictions of climate statistics may be made. Model-based ‘predictability’ studies, which probe these limits and investigate the physical mechanisms involved, support the potential for the skilful prediction of annual to decadal average temperature and, to a lesser extent precipitation. Predictions for averages of temperature, over large regions of the planet and for the global mean, exhibit positive skill when verified against observations for forecast periods up to ten years ( high confidence ) . Predictions of precipitation over some land areas also exhibit positive skill. Decadal prediction is a new endeavour in climate science. The level of quality for climate predictions of annual to decadal average quantities is assessed from the past performance of initialized predictions and non-initialized simulations. {11.2.3, Figures 11.3 and 11.4} In current results, observation-based initialization is the dominant contributor to the skill of predictions of annual mean temperature for the first few years and to the skill of predictions of the global mean surface temperature and the temperature over the North Atlantic, regions of the South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean for longer periods ( high confidence ).
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Citations
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment
Bond, T. C., Doherty, S. J., Fahey, D. W., Forster, P. M., Berntsen, T., DeAngelo, B. J., Flanner, M. G., Ghan, S., Kärcher, B., Koch, D., et al. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171 · Cited by 6,385
Drought under global warming: a review
Dai, A. (2011) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.81 · Cited by 3,523
Tropical cyclones and climate change
Knutson, T. R., McBride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J. P., Srivastava, A. K., & Sugi, M. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo779 · Cited by 3,194
Global surface temperature change
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., & Lo, K. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000345 · Cited by 3,081
Effect of climate change on air quality
Jacob, D. J., & Winner, D. A. (2009) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051 · Cited by 1,979
Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11575 · Cited by 1,978
The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications
Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas-Nuñez, A. M., & Gray, W. M. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1060040 · Cited by 1,769
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
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Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire
Flannigan, M. D., Krawchuk, M. A., de Groot, W. J., Wotton, B. M., & Gowman, L. M. (2009) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf08187 · Cited by 1,460
Cited by
Climate change impacts on soil salinity in agricultural areas
Corwin, D. L. (2021) · European Journal of Soil Science · doi:10.1111/ejss.13010 · Cited by 806
Air Quality and Climate Connections
Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., & Leibensperger, E. M. (2015) · Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association · doi:10.1080/10962247.2015.1040526 · Cited by 537
Thompson, R., Hornigold, R., Page, L., & Waite, T. (2018) · Public Health · doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2018.06.008 · Cited by 515
Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants
Stohl, A., Aamaas, B., Amann, M., Baker, L. H., Bellouin, N., Berntsen, T. K., Boucher, O., Cherian, R., Collins, W., Daskalakis, N., et al. (2015) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015 · Cited by 455
Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests
Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Costa, F., Sanchez, A. C., Ewango, C. E. N., Hubau, W., Marimon, B., Monteagudo-Mendoza, A., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578 · Cited by 377
Metadata
- Venue
- Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press
- Published
- 2014-03-24
- Pages
- 953-1028
- OpenAlex
- W91042601
- Cited by
- 860
- References
- 26
- FWCI
- 153.97
- Type
- book chapter
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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