Elite Influence on Public Opinion in an Informed Electorate

“(Some authors have already made a start: e.g., Druckman 2001, 72n11; Iyengar et al. 2008, 195; and Jost et al. 2003.)”

“…Cohen’s (2003) famous study as an example, Democrats support stringent welfare policies and Republicans support generous ones when their parties endorsed these positions (see also Bolsen et al., 2014; Malka and Lelkes, 2010; Slothuus, 2016; for counterevidence, see Bullock, 2011; Nicholson, 2012).”

“However, it has been difficult to draw general conclusions about the magnitude of party cue influence because of the substantial variation between different studies’ estimates (Bullock 2011, 2020; Tappin 2020).”

“The current findings also offer a potential contribution to the political science literature concerning the status of political elites in the realm of public opinion (see Baum & Groeling 2009; Bullock 2011).”

“These cues can lead citizens to update their information about the policy (Bullock, 2011; Cohen, 2003).”

“Conversely, affective polarization amplifies ideological distance and partisan alignment (Bullock 2011; Druckman et al. 2021; Enders and Lupton 2021; Lelkes 2018).”

“A recent paper by John G. Bullock (2011) examined more closely the relative influence of elite cues and policy information through an experiment embedded in an Internet survey in which both policyrelevant information and partisan cues were manipulated on a salient issue (health-care policy).”

“i) While Cohen (2003) has shown support for this idea, others (e.g., Bullock, 2011) have suggested that policy information may generally outweigh party cues.”

“Our research also contributes to a growing body of work showing that partisans ignore party cues when provided policy information (Arceneaux, 2008; Boudreau & Mackenzie, 2014; Bullock, 2011; Nicholson, 2011).”

“Issue voting may be a determinant of electoral behavior since several studies show that people increasingly vote based on issues rather than deeply rooted ideological convictions (Ansolabehere et al., 2008; Bullock 2011; Macdonald et al., 1995).”

“proposals and they use their limited information to decide how to vote (Bullock [14]).”

“Alternatively, the heuristic-systematic or dual processing model suggests that when individuals are presented with policy information prior to forming a judgment, they incorporate it into their opinion-forming process (Bullock, 2011; Chen and Chaiken, 1999).”

“This suggests that people may be following the platforms of political parties in order to inform their general opinions about environmentally related issues that align with such notions as the “elite cues hypothesis” (Bullock 2011; Carmichael and Brulle 2017; Leeper and Slothuus 2014).”

“Some authors claim that only less informed and low motivated persons follow cues; others find evidence that cues might not only be relevant for those unmotivated and less informed, but also for those who are motivated and highly politically aware (for a summary, see Bullock 2011).”

“Most studies that look at cueing effects employ experimental designs (e.g. Bullock 2011; Cohen 2003; Druckman et al. 2013; Goren et al. 2009; Kam 2005; Malka and Lelkes 2010; Slothuus and de Vreese 2010), so exposure to party cues is the result of participation in the experiment (and usually…”

“Bullock (2011) has shown that information about policies can affect an individual’s attitudes as much as partisanship.”

“The former category includes American studies like those by Bullock (2011) and Cohen (2003) that present positions on policies that have clear ideological implications and manipulate whether Democrats or Republicans favor them.”

“Consider, for example, recent experimental findings regarding the effects of partisan frames, exposure to policy information, and affective polarization (Chong and Druckman 2007, 2010, 2012; Bullock 2011; Bullock et al.”

“Yet, this research is refuted by a relatively smaller subset of works which questions the extent to which partisan cues overwhelm competing source cues (Bullock 2011; Boudreau and MacKenzie 2014, 2018).”

“But it could also be a function of information-driven rather than cue-driven decision making by right leaning individuals given their potential for being better informed about the subject matter (Bullock, 2011; Kuklinski et al., 1982).”

“Voter rationalization is related to partisan motivated reasoning whereby partisans adopt the positions of the parties they identify with to show their support for them (e.g. Bullock, 2011; Druckman et al., 2013).”

“Moreover, studies that randomized party cues and policy information in order to measure the influence of each factor demonstrate that policy does play a role in opinion formation (e.g., Bullock, 2011; Orr & Huber, 2020).”

“While citizens can eschew partisanship in favor of substantive information in certain circumstances (Bullock, 2011; Boudreau & MacKenzie, 2014), the evidence of partisan effects on political perceptions remains strong (e.g. Cohen, 2003; Petersen et al., 2013) and can color how individuals digest…”

“In addition, many extant studies assume that partisans respond to party cues and accept the arguments of political leaders (Bullock, 2011; Druckman, Peterson, & Slothuus, 2013; Gabel & Scheve, 2007), but some recent studies claim that such consistency might be a coincidence that stems from citizens…”

“Thus, some studies find stronger source cue effects among people with low levels of political awareness (Kam 2005; Bullock 2011; Barber and Pope 2019).”

“For example, on many occasions researchers have simply retained a subset of items with the highest factor loadings without considering any other parameters (e.g. Bullock, 2011).”

“…economist for international trade increased public support for trade in one study (Hiscox, 2006) and opposition by senior military leaders to a proposed military intervention reduced public support for it in another one (Golby et al., 2018—see also Bullock, 2011; Gusinger and Saunders, 2017).”

“…predictor of individual attitude change with opinion shifting in the direction of cues provided by trusted elites (Boudreau and MacKenzie, 2014; Bullock, 2011, 2019; Dalton et al., 1998; Downs, 1957; Ladd, 2010; Peterson, 2017).1 Second, the 2016 campaign provided a surprising victory for…”

“In general, in-party policy cues (e.g., an elite Democratic cue to a Democratic Party supporter) increase support for a given policy whereas out-party policy cues (e.g., an elite Republican cue to a Democratic Party supporter) decrease support (Bullock 2011, 2020 ).”

“Students of American politics have long noticed that political elites (e.g., politicians, party leaders) can exert a strong influence on public opinion through “elite cues” (Bullock, 2011, 2019).”

“Moreover, people may be initially uncertain about their prior beliefs (29 – 32).”

“To be sure, there is considerable evidence that parties influence preferences in the United States and elsewhere.”

“While some studies directly compare the effects of party cues and policy information (Arceneaux 2008; Boudreau and MacKenzie 2014; Bullock 2011), no study examines how donor information compares with these two other types of information.”

“…to our friends (as teenagers but also as adults; e.g., Pinquart & Silbereisen, 2004; Hugh-Jones & Ooi, 2017); we outsource some of our moral judgments to lawmakers (Amit et al., 2021); and we let our political parties determine many of our political positions (e.g., Cohen, 2003; Bullock, 2011).”

“3Traditionally, the LDP had argued that the second paragraph impeded Japan’s right to collective self-defense (Boyd and Samuels, 2005).”

“If citizens are unin-formed about referendum-specific factors, they tend to conform to the policy views of elites, following their cues on judgments, opinions, and preferences, and thus being more susceptible to partisan cues (Bullock 2011; Jacobs 2018).”

“Many works have addressed the effect of party attachment on policy preferences (Bartels, 2002; Bullock, 2011; Carsey and Layman, 2006; Jacoby, 1988; Klar, 2014; Lavine et al., 2012; Pannico, 2020; Torcal et al., 2018).”

“If citizens are uninformed of referendum-specific factors, they might conform to policy views of party elites (Bullock, 2011).”

“This evidence complements existing research on party cueing effects (e.g., Brader et al., 2012; Brader et al., 2020 ; Bullock, 2011 ; Coan et al., 2008 ; Kam, 2005 ; Merolla et al., 2008 ; Nicholson, 2012 ; Petersen et al., 2010 , 2012 ; Slothuus & De Vreese, 2010; Sniderman & Hagendoorn, 2007 ;…”

“Investigations into how partisans process information reveal that voters update their attitudes based on information despite partisan-ship (Bullock 2011; Coppock 2023).”

“As Bullock (2011) acknowledges, heuristics, while generally recognized as powerful drivers of public opinion, are not hegemonic.”

“Although prior work has demonstrated that party cues influence judgments (e.g., Berinsky, 2009; Cohen, 2003; Rahn, 1993), the top row of Table 1 shows that this finding is compatible with both accuracy and directional goals (Bullock, 2011).”

“…and against the person’s previous knowledge, whereas heuristic processing relies primarily on simple decision rules rather than extensive evaluation and most likely to occur when people lack the skills and motivation necessary to scrutinize the messages that they receive (Bullock, 2011).”

“Finally, the Bayesian Learning Model suggests that attitude change occurs in a manner consistent with Bayes’ rule, that is, individuals update their opinions by weighting new information according to the strength of their prior beliefs (Bullock, 2011; Gerber & Green, 1999).”

“…have used survey-embedded experiments exposing respondents to information about party leaders ’ positions (Barber and Pope, 2019; Bolsen et al., 2014; Bullock, 2011; Ciuk and Yost, 2016; Kam, 2005; Levendusky, 2010; Mullinix, 2016; Nicholson, 2012; Peterson, 2019; Slothuus and De Vreese, 2010).”