Territorial Autonomy in the Shadow of Conflict: Too Little, Too Late?
Open accessAbstract
This article evaluates the effect of territorial autonomy on the outbreak of internal conflict by analyzing ethnic groups around the world since WWII. Shedding new light on an ongoing debate, we argue that the critics have overstated the case against autonomy policies. Our evidence indicates that decentralization has a significant conflict-preventing effect where there is no prior conflict history. In postconflict settings, however, granting autonomy can still be helpful in combination with central power sharing arrangements. Yet, on its own, postconflict autonomy concessions may be too little, too late. Accounting for endogeneity, we also instrument for autonomy in postcolonial states by exploiting that French, as opposed to British, colonial rule rarely relied on decentralized governance. This identification strategy suggests that naïve analysis tends to underestimate the pacifying influence of decentralization.
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Cederman et al. (2015) find that while territorial power sharing by itself decreases the risk of ethnic conflict onset, it is not enough to prevent conflict recurrence.
“For instance, Cederman et al. (2015) find that while territorial power sharing by itself decreases the risk of ethnic conflict onset, it is not enough to prevent conflict recurrence.”
From Dynamics and Logics of Civil War (2017) · cites this paper as Cederman et al. (2015)
The track record of territorial autonomy regimes looks much more positive once the delicate ethno-political conditions under which they are enacted are taken into account.
“Considering these usually delicate ethno-political conditions, the track record of autonomy regimes looks much more positive (McGarry and O'Leary 2009; Cederman et al. 2015).”
From Dynamics and Logics of Civil War (2017) · cites this paper as Cederman et al. 2015
Power-sharing arrangements can play a crucial role as preventive instruments, not only as measures to terminate war.
“while power sharing figures as one of the most important institutional approaches to conflict resolution, such arrangements can also play a crucial role as preventive instruments (e.g., Cederman et al. 2015).”
From Dynamics and Logics of Civil War (2017) · cites this paper as Cederman et al. 2015
Cites
The economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque Country
Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282803321455188 · Cited by 4,517 · see citing works
Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset
GLEDITSCH, N. P., WALLENSTEEN, P., ERIKSSON, M., SOLLENBERG, M., & STRAND, H. (2002) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343302039005007 · Cited by 3,846 · cited 5× · see citing works
“…variable, which denotes outbreak of territorial civil conflict based on a group-level coding of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s Armed Conflict Dataset (ACD) (Gleditsch et al. 2002), with supplementary information from the Non-State Actors dataset (Cunningham, Gleditsch, and Salehyan 2009).”
MethodInfluentialHorizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison
CEDERMAN, L.-E., WEIDMANN, N. B., & GLEDITSCH, K. S. (2011) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055411000207 · Cited by 1,028 · see citing works
Self-citationDoes Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War
Walter, B. F. (2004) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343304043775 · Cited by 690 · see citing works
The Social Processes of Civil War: The Wartime Transformation of Social Networks
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The Enemy Within: Personal Rule, Coups, and Civil War in Africa
Roessler, P. (2011) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887111000049 · Cited by 481 · see citing works
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Dynamics and Logics of Civil War
Cederman, L.-E., & Vogt, M. (2017) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002717721385 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Self-citationForecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data” and Machine Learning
Blair, R. A., & Sambanis, N. (2020) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002720918923 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
- Authors
- CEDERMAN, L.-E., HUG, S., SCHÄDEL, A., & WUCHERPFENNIG, J.
- Affiliations
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- University of Geneva (CH)
- Corresponding author
- CEDERMAN, LARS-ERIK
- HUG, SIMON
- SCHÄDEL, ANDREAS
- WUCHERPFENNIG, JULIAN
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2015-04-23
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 354-370
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2129549681
- Cited by
- 221
- References
- 6
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 3
- FWCI
- 44.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- reroDoc Digital Library (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- OPUS 4 (Zuse Institute Berlin) (submittedVersion)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Systems and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Post-Soviet Geopolitical Dynamics
- Keywords
- territorial autonomy, ethnic conflict, decentralization, power sharing, ethnic groups, postcolonial state, conflict prevention
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