The DOI matches its Crossref record; 78 of the 80 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Crossing the Water's Edge: Elite Rhetoric, Media Coverage, and the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon
Abstract
The most widely accepted explanation for the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon is a relative absence of elite criticism during the initial stages of foreign crises. In this study we argue that the nature and extent of elite debate may matter less than media coverage of any such debate and that these often systematically diverge. We also argue that not all messages in this debate matter equally for public opinion. Rather, the persuasiveness of elite messages depends on their credibility, which, in turn, arises out of an interaction between the sender, receiver, and message. Hence, only by understanding the interactions between elites, the public, and the press can we account for variations in public responses to presidential foreign policy initiatives. We test our theory by examining public opinion data and a new dataset on network news coverage of all major U.S. uses of military force from 1979 to 2003. We content analyze all congressional evaluations of the president and the executive branch of government from the three network evening newscasts within 61-day time periods centered on the start date of each use of force. Our results offer strong support for the theory.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“To the extent that the media adopts a consistent approach to reporting about cyberterrorism, then any elite variance will not necessarily filter down to the public (Groeling and Baum 2008; Kertzer and Zeitzoff 2017).”
From Public Opinion and Cyberterrorism (2023) · cites this paper as Groeling and Baum 2008
Citations
Cites
Practical Statistics for Medical Research
Altman, D. G. (1990) · doi:10.1201/9780429258589 · Cited by 10,668
Practical Statistics for Medical Research.
Bartko, J. J., & Altman, D. G. (1992) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2290246 · Cited by 4,834
Strategic information transmission
Crawford, V. P., & Sobel, J. (1982) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1913390 · Cited by 4,293
Ross, M. J., & Mayhew, D. R. (1975) · The Western Political Quarterly · doi:10.1177/106591297502800316 · Cited by 4,150
Making the most of statistical analyses: improving interpretation and presentation
King, G., Tomz, M., & Wittenberg, J. (2000) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.2307/2669316 · Cited by 3,232
Congress: The Electoral Connection, by David R. Mayhew
Page, B. I. (1975) · Political Science Quarterly · doi:10.2307/2148248 · Cited by 3,141
Making News: A Study in the Construction of Reality.
Gitlin, T., & Tuchman, G. (1980) · Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews · doi:10.2307/2065604 · Cited by 2,673
Making News: A Study in the Construction of Reality.
Robinson, J. P., & Tuchman, G. (1981) · Social Forces · doi:10.2307/2578016 · Cited by 2,372
Legislative leviathan: party government in the House
(1993) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.31-0579 · Cited by 2,294
Popkin, S. L. (1991) · University of Chicago Press eBooks · doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226772875.001.0001 · Cited by 1,909
The democratic dilemma: can citizens learn what they need to know?
(1998) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.36-1262 · Cited by 1,821
Toward a Theory of Press-State Relations in the United States
Bennett, W. L. (1990) · Journal of Communication · doi:10.1111/j.1460-2466.1990.tb02265.x · Cited by 1,815
The logic of congressional action
(1991) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.28-4778 · Cited by 1,802
Spiral of Cynicism: The Press and the Public Good
Cappella, J. N., & Jamieson, K. H. (1997) · Cited by 1,608
Sniderman, P. M., Brody, R. A., & Tetlock, P. E. (1991) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511720468 · Cited by 1,554
War, Presidents and Public Opinion
Mueller, J. E. (2017) · The SHAFR Guide Online · doi:10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim170220024 · Cited by 1,412
Entman, R. M. (2003) · University of Chicago Press eBooks · doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226210735.001.0001 · Cited by 1,254
Political Preference Formation: Competition, Deliberation, and the (Ir)relevance of Framing Effects
Druckman, J. N. (2004) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055404041413 · Cited by 992
The “Uncensored War”: The Media and Vietnam
Duiker, W. J. (1987) · Pacific Affairs · doi:10.2307/2758182 · Cited by 950
The Mass Media and American Politics
Pfau, M. W., Denton, R. E., Woodward, G. C., Meyrowitz, J., Orren, G. R., & Polsby, N. W. (1989) · The Western Political Quarterly · doi:10.1177/106591298904200113 · Cited by 930
The Role of Partisan Stereotypes in Information Processing about Political Candidates
Rahn, W. M. (1993) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.2307/2111381 · Cited by 900
Mass Media and American Politics, by Doris A. Graber
Kumar, M. J. (1980) · Political Science Quarterly · doi:10.2307/2150629 · Cited by 836
How are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model
Hurwitz, J., & Peffley, M. (1987) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/1962580 · Cited by 807
The American People and Foreign Policy.
Moore, B., & Almond, G. A. (1950) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2086935 · Cited by 734
The "Uncensored War": The Media and Vietnam
Kamalipour, Y. R. (2017) · The SHAFR Guide Online · doi:10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim270040274 · Cited by 697
Causal inferences about communicators and their effect on opinion change.
Eagly, A. H., Wood, W., & Chaiken, S. (1978) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.36.4.424 · Cited by 633
The Pretty Prudent Public: Post Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force
Jentleson, B. W. (1992) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.2307/2600916 · Cited by 586
Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict
Berinsky, A. J. (2007) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00602.x · Cited by 542
Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy
Holsti, O. R. (2017) · The SHAFR Guide Online · doi:10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim290060034 · Cited by 506
Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq
Gelpi, C. F., Feaver, P. D., & Reifler, J. (2005) · International Security · doi:10.1162/016228805775969573 · Cited by 488
The Value of Biased Information: A Rational Choice Model of Political Advice
Calvert, R. L. (1985) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.2307/2130895 · Cited by 468
Which Side Are You On? Bias, Credibility, and Mediation
Kydd, A. H. (2003) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/1540-5907.00042 · Cited by 460
Jentleson, B. W., & Britton, R. L. (1998) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002798042004001 · Cited by 378
Mass Public Decisions on Go to War: A Cognitive-Interactionist Framework
Herrmann, R. K., Tetlock, P. E., & Visser, P. S. (1999) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/2585574 · Cited by 352
Victory Has Many Friends: U.S. Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, 1981–2005
Eichenberg, R. C. (2005) · International Security · doi:10.1162/0162288054894616 · Cited by 346
On Hearing and Interpreting Political Messages: A Cautionary Tale of Citizen Cue-Taking
Kuklinski, J. H., & Hurley, N. L. (1994) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.2307/2132190 · Cited by 337
Causes of Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992
Oneal, J. R., Russett, B. M., & Berbaum, M. L. (2003) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/1468-2478.4703004 · Cited by 337
Government's little helper: U.S. press coverage of foreign policy crises, 1945–1991
Zaller, J. R., & Chiu, D. (1996) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584609.1996.9963127 · Cited by 331
The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon
Baum, M. (2002) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/1468-2478.00232 · Cited by 324
Self-citationNone Dare Call It Torture: Indexing and the Limits of Press Independence in the Abu Ghraib Scandal
Bennett, W. L., Lawrence, R. G., & Livingston, S. G. (2006) · Journal of Communication · doi:10.1111/j.1460-2466.2006.00296.x · Cited by 299
Choosing Your Battles: American Civil-Military Relations and the Use of Force
Freedman, L. D., Feaver, P. D., & Gelpi, C. F. (2004) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20033997 · Cited by 289
Baum, M. (2011) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9781400841288 · Cited by 260
Self-citationOn increasing the persuasiveness of a low prestige communicator
Walster, E., Aronson, E., & Abrahams, D. (1966) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/0022-1031(66)90026-6 · Cited by 242
Development and the Liberal Peace: What Does it Take to be a Trading State?
Hegre, H. (2000) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343300037001001 · Cited by 235
The United Nations Security Council and the Rally ’Round the Flag Effect
Chapman, T. L., & Reiter, D. (2004) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002704269353 · Cited by 231
Images in International Relations: An Experimental Test of Cognitive Schemata
Herrmann, R. K., Voss, J. F., Schooler, T. Y., & Ciarrochi, J. (1997) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/0020-8833.00050 · Cited by 224
The American People and Foreign Policy
Kraft, J., & Almond, G. A. (1951) · The Yale Law Journal · doi:10.2307/793643 · Cited by 221
Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
Markel, L. (1949) · Michigan Law Review · doi:10.2307/1284263 · Cited by 199
Revising the indexing hypothesis: Officials, media, and the Libya crisis
Althaus, S. L., Edy, J. A., Entman, R. M., & Phalen, P. F. (1996) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584609.1996.9963128 · Cited by 188
Misreading the Public: The Myth of a New Isolationism
ZELIKOW, P. D., Kull, S., & Destler, I. M. (2000) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20049655 · Cited by 181
Identity and Conflict: Ties that Bind and Differences that Divide
Gartzke, E. A., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2006) · European Journal of International Relations · doi:10.1177/1354066106061330 · Cited by 163
How Much Is Majority Status in the U.S. Congress Worth?
Cox, G. W., & Magar, E. (1999) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/2585397 · Cited by 162
The Myth of the Diversionary Use of Force by American Presidents
Meernik, J., & Waterman, P. (1996) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/106591299604900306 · Cited by 158
Race, Casualties, and Opinion in the Vietnam War
Gartner, S. S., & Segura, G. M. (2000) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1111/0022-3816.00006 · Cited by 146
Force without War: U.S. Armed Forces as a Political Instrument
Blechman, B. M., Kaplan, S. S., & al, W. D. K. H. E. (2017) · The SHAFR Guide Online · doi:10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim140120002 · Cited by 132
Nelson, T. E., & Garst, J. (2005) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9221.2005.00428.x · Cited by 131
The foreign policy disconnect: what Americans want from our leaders but don't get
(2007) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.44-4134 · Cited by 131
War Stories: the Causes and Consequences of Public Views of War
Baum, M., & Groeling, T. J. (2017) · The SHAFR Guide Online · doi:10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim290060005 · Cited by 112
Self-citationIs Network News Coverage of the President Biased?
Groeling, T. J., & Kernell, S. (1998) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.2307/2647731 · Cited by 111
Self-citationInternational Security Institutions, Domestic Politics, and Institutional Legitimacy
Chapman, T. L. (2007) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002706296177 · Cited by 111
Policy failure and public support: The Iran-Contra affair and public assessment of President Reagan
Brody, R. A., & Shapiro, C. R. (1989) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/bf01002142 · Cited by 110
Feeding Frenzy: Attack Journalism and American Politics
Sabato, L. J. (2000) · Cited by 95
Geoghegan, T. (1991) · Cited by 92
Are the American People "Pretty Prudent"? Public Responses to U.S. Uses of Force, 1950-1988
Oneal, J. R., Lian, B. E., & Joyner, J. H. (1996) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.2307/2600959 · Cited by 86
Presidential Approval and the Mixed Blessing of Divided Government
Nicholson, S. P., Segura, G. M., & Woods, N. D. (2002) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1111/0022-3816.00142 · Cited by 78
Brown, S. (1937) · Public Opinion Quarterly · doi:10.1086/265132 · Cited by 70
Militarized Interstate Disputes and United States Uses of Force
Fordham, B. O., & Sarver, C. C. (2001) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/0020-8833.00209 · Cited by 70
Patterson, T. E. (1996) · PS Political Science & Politics · doi:10.1017/s1049096500043997 · Cited by 54
Koeske, G. F., & Crano, W. D. (1968) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/0022-1031(68)90065-6 · Cited by 36
Feaver, P. D., & Gelpi, C. F. (2011) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9781400841455 · Cited by 25
RAMSAY, S. K. (2003) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203449684-20 · Cited by 22
Soft News Goes to War: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy in the New Media Age
Just, M. R. (2006) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592706390147 · Cited by 18
The Logic of Congressional Action
West, R. (2017) · Yale University Press eBooks · doi:10.12987/9780300160765 · Cited by 15
Lippmann, W. (1934) · Cited by 15
Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
Davis, J. W., & Root, E. (1931) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20030361 · Cited by 15
The maverick effect: Increased communicator credibility as a result of abandoning a career.
Dutton, D. G. (1973) · Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science/Revue canadienne des sciences du comportement · doi:10.1037/h0082339 · Cited by 12
Force Without War: U.S. Armed Forces as a Political Instrument
Lees, J. D. (1980) · International Affairs · doi:10.2307/2615811 · Cited by 9
Heith, D. J. (2017) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781315184395-6 · Cited by 6
Research works printed but not linked: 18
- Brody Richard, Assessing the President
- Cappella Joseph N, 1997, Jamieson
- Congressional Quarterly Almanac, 1953–2000
- Groeling, Tim. 2001. “When Politicians Attack: The Causes, Contours, and Consequences of Partisan Political Communication.” Ph.D. Dissertation. University of California, San Diego.
- Hess Stephen, Live from Capitol Hill
- Howell William, Typescript
- Kernell Samuel, Going Public
- Kull Steven, Public Opinion and the International Use of Force, ed. Phillip Everts and Pierangelo Isneria.
- Kurtz Howard, Republican Convention Gets Under Way
- Levy Jack S, Handbook of War Studies, M.I. Midlarsky.
- Lupia Arthur, 1998, McCubbins
- Mayhew David, Congress: The Electoral Connection
- Page Benjamin I, 2006, Bouton
- Perla Hector, meeting of the American Political Science Association
- Rosenau James N, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
- Schwartz Benjamin C, Military Intervention: Implications for U.S. Regional Deterrence Strategies
- Spence A. Michael., Market Signaling
- Zaller John, 1946, Government's Little Helper: U
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Norris, P. (2011) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511973383 · Cited by 2,660
Baum, M., & Potter, P. (2007) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060406.214132 · Cited by 608
Self-citationNew Media and the Polarization of American Political Discourse
Baum, M., & Groeling, T. J. (2008) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584600802426965 · Cited by 549
Self-citationA Bottom‐Up Theory of Public Opinion about Foreign Policy
Kertzer, J. D., & Zeitzoff, T. (2017) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12314 · Cited by 443
The Political Economy of the United Nations Security Council
Vreeland, J. R., & Dreher, A. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139027755 · Cited by 311
Metadata
- Authors
- Groeling, T., & Baum, M. A.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Venue
- The Journal of Politics
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2008-10
- Volume
- 70
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1065-1085
- ISSN
- 0022-3816 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-2508
- OpenAlex
- W3125270158
- Cited by
- 243
- References
- 80
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 38.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Journal of Politics (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Communication › News Media Framing and Political Communication
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Media Influence and Politics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Keywords
- elite rhetoric, media coverage, presidential foreign policy, public opinion, credibility
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review