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Cited by 69Archaeology and ancient environmental studiesAncient Mediterranean Archaeology and HistoryMaritime and Coastal Archaeology

Dating the Volcanic Eruption at Thera

Open access
Bronk Ramsey, Christopher, Manning, Sturt W, Galimberti, Mariagrazia·2004·Radiocarbon
DOI 10.1017/s0033822200039631
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Abstract

The eruption of the volcano at Thera (Santorini) in the Aegean Sea undoubtedly had a profound influence on the civilizations of the surrounding region. The date of the eruption has been a subject of much controversy because it must be linked into the established and intricate archaeological phasings of both the prehistoric Aegean and the wider east Mediterranean. Radiocarbon dating of material from the volcanic destruction layer itself can provide some evidence for the date of the eruption, but because of the shape of the calibration curve for the relevant period, the value of such dates relies on there being no biases in the data sets. However, by dating the material from phases earlier and later than the eruption, some of the problems of the calibration data set can be circumvented and the chronology for the region can be resolved with more certainty. In this paper, we draw together the evidence we have accumulated so far, including new data on the destruction layer itself and for the preceding cultural horizon at Thera, and from associated layers at Miletos in western Turkey. Using Bayesian models to synthesize the data and to identify outliers, we conclude from the most reliable 14 C evidence (and using the INTCAL98 calibration data set) that the eruption of Thera occurred between 1663 and 1599 BC.

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  • The 13 uncalibrated radiocarbon dates from Akrotiri charred seeds range from 3400 ± 31 BP (OxA-11820) to 3315 ± 31 BP (VERA-2757).

    “The 13 individual dates have a range from 3400 ± 31 BP (OxA-11820) to 3315 ± 31 BP (VERA-2757).”

    From The Minoan Thera eruption predates Pharaoh Ahmose: Radiocarbon dating of Egyptian 17th to early 18th Dynasty museum objects (2025) · cites this paper as [57]

    Appendix I and the Bayesian model list OxA-11820 as 3400 ± 31 BP, and the measurements section identifies the Akrotiri volcanic-destruction samples as charred seeds. But the paper lists 16 measurements in its Thera destruction-layer series, including values outside the claimed range, and the searched passages do not identify VERA-2757 or its asserted 3315 ± 31 BP date. It therefore does not support the stated range for 13 dates. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Many existing radiocarbon determinations have been recalibrated multiple times, with calibrations to older iterations of IntCal returning probability distributions ranging into the 16th century because of a slight shift in the position of a well-described radiocarbon plateau in the calibration curve.

    “Many of the existing radiocarbon determinations have been recalibrated multiple times, with calibrations to older iterations of IntCal [for example, ( 3 , 10 )] returning probability distributions ranging into the 16th century because of a slight shift in the position of a well-described ( 3 ) radiocarbon plateau in the calibration curve.”

    From Annual radiocarbon record indicates 16th century BCE date for the Thera eruption (2018) · cites this paper as [3]

    Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • The first series comprises 14C dates on a defined tree-ring (oak, Quercus sp.) sequence of 72 tree-rings ending in waney edge from Miletos from a sample found buried beneath Theran tephra fall.

    “The first series comprises 14 C dates on a defined tree-ring (oak, Quercus sp.) sequence of 72 tree-rings ending in waney edge (ring immediately below bark) from Miletos from a sample that was found buried beneath Theran tephra fall [74,140,144].”

    From Second Intermediate Period date for the Thera (Santorini) eruption and historical implications (2022) · cites this paper as [144]

    The 14 C Measurements section describes radiocarbon measurements on a 72-year oak tree-ring sequence from a Miletos chair that was excavated covered in Theran ash. It says the final ring appears to be the waney edge, but explicitly cautions that this interpretation cannot be regarded as certain; the claim presents it as definite. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Use of the lower 14C age estimates from the subjectively defined 'low date clumps' does not materially change previous assessments of the 14C-based dating of the Thera volcanic destruction level that favored mid-to-later 17th century BC ranges.

    “thus, use of the lower 1 4 C age estimates from the subjectively defined”

    From Considerations of the Scale of Radiocarbon Offsets in the East Mediterranean, and Considering a Case for the Latest (Most Recent) Likely Date for the Santorini Eruption (2012) · cites this paper as Bronk Ramsey et al. 2004

    The Conclusions (page not supplied) favor a mid-to-later 17th-century cal BC date for the Thera eruption. The Bayesian Analysis section says several models with acceptable internal consistency yield similar chronologies, but it does not identify a test using lower age estimates from subjectively defined “low date clumps.” That specific basis for saying the assessment is unchanged is not supported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Radiocarbon measurements from legumes and grains buried directly beneath the eruption deposits, and an olive branch buried within them, cluster in the range c.1650-1600 cal BCE relative to IntCal13.

    “Measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C) from legumes and grains ( 3 , 8 , 9 ) buried directly beneath the eruption deposits, and an olive branch ( 10 ) buried within them, cluster in the range c.1650 -1600 cal BCE relative to the internationally agreed radiocarbon calibration curve, IntCal13 ( 11 )”

    From Annual radiocarbon record indicates 16th century BCE date for the Thera eruption (2018) · cites this paper as [3]

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Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 20

  1. Betancourt PP. 1987. Dating the Aegean Late Bronze Age with radiocarbon. Archaeometry 29:45-9.
  2. Betancourt PP. 1998. The chronology of the Aegean Late Bronze Age: unanswered questions. In: Balmuth MS, Tykot RH, editors. Sardinian and Aegean Chronol- ogy: Towards the Resolution of Relative and Absolute Dating in the Mediterranean. Studies in Sardinian Ar- chaeology V. Oxford: Oxbow Books. p 291-6.
  3. Bietak M. 2003. Science versus archaeology: problems and consequences of High Aegean chronology. In: Bi- etak M, editor. The Synchronisation of Civilisations in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Second Millenium BC II. Proceedings of the SCIEM 2000-Euroconfer- ence, Haindorf, 2001, Vienna. p 23-33.
  4. Bronk Ramsey C. 1995. Radiocarbon calibration and analysis of stratigraphy: the OxCal program. Radio- carbon 37(2):425-30.
  5. Bronk Ramsey C, Higham TFG, Leach P. 2004. Towards high-precision AMS: progress and limitations. Radio- carbon, these proceedings.
  6. Galimberti M, Bronk Ramsey C, Manning SW. 2004. Wiggle-match dating of tree ring sequences. Radio- carbon, these proceedings.
  7. Hammer CU, Kurat G, Hoppe P, Grum W, Clausen HB. 2003. Thera eruption date 1645 BC confirmed by new ice core data? In: Bietak M, editor. The Synchronisa- tion of Civilisations in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Second Millenium BC II. Proceedings of the SCIEM 2000-Euroconference, Haindorf, 2001, Vi- enna. p 87-94.
  8. Housley RA, Manning SW, Cadogan G, Jones RE, Hedges REM. 1999. Radiocarbon, calibration, and the chronology of the Late Minoan IB phase. Journal of Archaeological Science 26:159-71.
  9. Manning SW. 1998. Correction. New GISP2 ice-core ev- idence supports 17th century BC date for the Santorini (Minoan) eruption: response to Zielinski and Germani (1998). Journal of Archaeological Science 25:1039- 42.
  10. Manning SW. 1999. A Test of Time: The Volcano of Thera and the Chronology and History of the Aegean and East Mediterranean in the Mid-Second Millennium BC. Oxford: Oxbow Books. p 494 + xxxiii.
  11. Manning SW, Bronk Ramsey C, Doumas C, Marketou T, Cadogan G, Pearson CL. 2002. New evidence for an early date for the Aegean Late Bronze Age and Thera eruption. Antiquity 76:733-44.
  12. Michael HN. 1976. Radiocarbon dates from Akrotiri on Thera. Temple University Aegean Symposium 1:7-9.
  13. Pearce N, Westgate J, Preece S, Eastwood W, Perkins W. 2004. Identification of Aniakchak (Alaska) tephra in Greenland ice core challenges the 1645 BC date for Minoan eruption of Santorini. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 5(3):Q03005 doi:10.1029/ 2003GC000672. · DOI
  14. Stuiver M, Reimer PJ, Bard E, Beck JW, Burr GS, Hughen KA, Kromer B, McCormac G, van der Plicht J, Spurk M. 1998. INTCAL98 radiocarbon age cali- bration, 24,000-0 cal BP. Radiocarbon 40(3):1041- 83.
  15. Stuiver M, Reimer PJ, Braziunas TF. 1998. High-preci- sion radiocarbon age calibration for terrestrial and ma- rine samples. Radiocarbon 40(3):1127-51.
  16. Warren PM. 1998. Aegean Late Bronze 1-2 absolute chronology-some new contributions. In: Balmuth MS and Tykot RH, editors. Sardinian and Aegean Chronology: Towards the Resolution of Relative and Absolute Dating in the Mediterranean. Studies in Sar- dinian Archaeology V. Oxford: Oxbow Books. p 323- 31.
  17. Warren P, Hankey V. 1989. Aegean Bronze Age chronol- ogy. Bristol: Bristol Classical Press. 246 p.
  18. Zielinski GA, Germani MS. 1998a. New ice-core evi- dence challenges the 1620s BC age for the Santorini (Minoan) eruption. Journal of Archaeological Science 25:279-89.
  19. Zielinski GA, Germani MS.1998b. Reply to: Correction. Journal of Archaeological Science 25:1043-5.
  20. R_Date "OxA-10732" 3095 45; }; }; Boundary "End of sequence"; }; }; https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033822200039631 Published online by Cambridge University Press

Cited by

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Authors
Bronk Ramsey, C., Manning, S. W., & Galimberti, M.
Affiliations
  • University of Toronto (CA)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
ORCID
Manning, Sturt W
Venue
Radiocarbon
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published
2004
Volume
46
Issue
1
Pages
325-344
ISSN
  • 0033-8222 (ISSN-L)
  • 1945-5755
DOI
10.1017/s0033822200039631
OpenAlex
W1770490023
Cited by
69
References
4
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 5
FWCI
3.37
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 4582 d)
Locations
  • Radiocarbon (publishedVersion)
  • UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) (acceptedVersion)
  • CentAUR (University of Reading) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Oak Ridge Associated Universities
  • Natural Environment Research Council
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Mediterranean Archaeology and History
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Maritime and Coastal Archaeology
Keywords
Thera eruption, Santorini, Minoan eruption, eruption chronology, radiocarbon dating, destruction layers, Miletos, Aegean prehistory, Bayesian synthesis, outlier detection

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