Greenhouse gas emission mitigation pathways for urban passenger land transport under ambitious climate targets
Abstract
Urban passenger land transport is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, but it is challenging to mitigate these emissions as this sector interacts with many other economic sectors. We develop the Climate change constrained Urban passenger Transport Integrated Life cycle assessment (CURTAIL) model to outline mitigation pathways of urban passenger land transport that are consistent with ambitious climate targets. CURTAIL uses the transport activity of exogenously defined modal shares to simulate the associated annual vehicle stocks, sales, and life cycle GHG emissions. It estimates GHG emission budgets that are consistent with global warming below 2 and 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and seeks mitigation strategies to remain within the budgets. We apply it to a case study of Singapore, a city-state. Meeting a 1.5 °C target requires strong commitments in the transport and electricity sectors, such as reducing the motorized passenger activity, accelerating the deployment of public transit and of electrification, and decarbonizing the power generation system. Focusing on one mitigation technology or one mode of transport alone will not be sufficient to meet the target. Our novel model could be applied to any city to provide insights relevant to the design of urban climate change mitigation targets and policies.
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The carbon intensity of EV production coalesces around 140 kg CO2/kWh.
“Multiple sources report a range of values for the carbon intensity of EV production [99,105-109]. However, they mostly have the same magnitude and coalesce around 140 kg CO2/kWh, with about 25% of emissions coming from mining to cathode production, 40% from cell production, and the remaining 35% from pack production.”
From Lithium Supply Chain Optimization: A Global Analysis of Critical Minerals for Batteries (2024) · cites this paper as [109]
About 25% of EV production emissions come from mining to cathode production, 40% from cell production, and 35% from pack production.
“Multiple sources report a range of values for the carbon intensity of EV production [99,105-109]. However, they mostly have the same magnitude and coalesce around 140 kg CO2/kWh, with about 25% of emissions coming from mining to cathode production, 40% from cell production, and the remaining 35% from pack production.”
From Lithium Supply Chain Optimization: A Global Analysis of Critical Minerals for Batteries (2024) · cites this paper as [109]
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- Authors
- Milovanoff, A., Minet, L., Cheah, L., Posen, I. D., MacLean, H. L., & Balasubramanian, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Singapore University of Technology and Design (SG)
- Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077
- Corresponding author
- Milovanoff, Alexandre
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Publisher
- American Chemical Society (ACS)
- Published
- 2021-05-21
- Volume
- 55
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 8236-8246
- ISSN
- 0013-936X (ISSN-L)
- 1520-5851
- OpenAlex
- W3162142206
- Cited by
- 50
- References
- 74
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 10
- FWCI
- 1.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Science & Technology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Toronto
- National University of Singapore (R-302-000-236-114)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Vehicle emissions and performance
- Keywords
- greenhouse gas emissions reduction, urban passenger transport, life cycle assessment, modal split, vehicle stock, emission budget, 1.5°C target, 2°C target, public transport, vehicle electrification, electric mobility, Singapore
- MeSH terms
- Greenhouse Gases, Cities, Transportation, Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change
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