Cited by 325Air Quality and Health ImpactsVehicle emissions and performanceAtmospheric chemistry and aerosols

Effects of ethanol (E85) versus gasoline vehicles on cancer and mortality in the United States

Jacobson, Mark Z.·2007·Environmental Science & Technology

Abstract

Ethanol use in vehicle fuel is increasing worldwide, but the potential cancer risk and ozone-related health consequences of a large-scale conversion from gasoline to ethanol have not been examined. Here, a nested global-through-urban air pollution/weather forecast model is combined with high-resolution future emission inventories, population data, and health effects data to examine the effect of converting from gasoline to E85 on cancer, mortality, and hospitalization in the United States as a whole and Los Angeles in particular. Under the base-case emission scenario derived, which accounted for projected improvements in gasoline and E85 vehicle emission controls, it was found that E85 (85% ethanol fuel, 15% gasoline) may increase ozone-related mortality, hospitalization, and asthma by about 9% in Los Angeles and 4% in the United States as a whole relative to 100% gasoline. Ozone increases in Los Angeles and the northeast were partially offset by decreases in the southeast. E85 also increased peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in the U.S. but was estimated to cause little change in cancer risk. Due to its ozone effects, future E85 may be a greater overall public health risk than gasoline. However, because of the uncertainty in future emission regulations, it can be concluded with confidence only that E85 is unlikely to improve air quality over future gasoline vehicles. Unburned ethanol emissions from E85 may result in a global-scale source of acetaldehyde larger than that of direct emissions.

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Crossref · 10.1021/es062085v

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22 of 22 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • A study by Jacobson showed that such a blend causes elevations in PAN and increases ozone-related mortality.

    “A study undertaken by Jacobson [104] also showed that such a blend causes elevations in the levels of PAN, whilst also increasing ozone-related mortality.”

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Authors
Jacobson, M. Z.
Affiliations
Stanford University (US)
Corresponding author
Jacobson, Mark Z.
Venue
Environmental Science & Technology
Published
2007-04-18
Volume
41
Issue
11
Pages
4150-4157
ISSN
  • 0013-936X (ISSN-L)
  • 1520-5851
OpenAlex
W2044443652
Cited by
325
References
22
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 31
FWCI
24.46
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • Environmental Science & Technology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Vehicle emissions and performance
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
Keywords
gasoline vehicles, vehicle emissions, ozone-related mortality, cancer risk, hospitalization, asthma, peroxyacetyl nitrate, acetaldehyde emissions, air quality, emission inventory, Los Angeles, public health risk
MeSH terms
Air Pollution, Ethanol, Vehicle Emissions, Computer Simulation, Conservation of Energy Resources, Humans, Mortality, Neoplasms, Ozone, Petroleum, United States, Los Angeles, Motor Vehicles

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