Transforming the Norwegian Dwelling Stock to Reach the 2 Degrees Celsius Climate Target: Combining Material Flow Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment Techniques
Open accessAbstract
Summary: Residential buildings account for about one‐third of the final energy demand in Norway. Many cost‐effective measures for reducing heat losses in buildings are known, and their implementation may make the building sector one of the largest contributors to climate change mitigation. To determine the sectoral emission reduction potential, we model a complete transformation of the dwelling stock by 2050 by applying both renovation and reconstruction with different energy standards. We propose a new dynamic stock model with an optimization routine to identify and prioritize buildings with the highest energy saving potential. We combine material flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) techniques to extend the sectoral boundary beyond direct household emissions. Despite an expected population growth of almost 50% between 2000 and 2050, sectoral carbon emissions in that period may drop between 30% and 40% for scenarios where the stock is completely transformed by either reconstruction or renovation to the passive house standard. Due to its lower upstream impact, renovation leads to a lower sectoral carbon footprint than reconstruction. Full transformation, however, is not sufficient to achieve an emissions reduction of 50% or more, as required on average to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, because hot water generation, appliances, and lighting will dominate the sectoral footprint once the stock has been transformed. A first estimate of the additional impact of realistic energy efficiency and lifestyle changes in the nonheating part of the sector reveals a maximal total reduction potential of about 75%.
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A 'more intense use' scenario for future residential buildings in Norway shows that the climate impacts of buildings could be reduced by 50% compared to baseline as a result of reduced material demand and reduced energy demand to heat a smaller area.
“A 'more intense use' scenario for future residential buildings in Norway shows that the climate impacts of buildings could be reduced by 50% compared to baseline as a result of reduced material demand and reduced energy demand to heat a smaller area [58].”
From Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review (2019) · cites this paper as [58]
Individual case studies indicate that refurbishments can have lower life cycle impacts than replacements if and only if refurbished to ambitious energy standards.
“Individual case studies indicate that refurbishments can have lower life cycle impacts than replacements if and only if refurbished to ambitious energy standards [58,117].”
From Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review (2019) · cites this paper as [58]
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Hertwich, E. G., Ali, S., Ciacci, L., Fishman, T., Heeren, N., Masanet, E., Asghari, F. N., Olivetti, E., Pauliuk, S., Tu, Q., et al. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0fe3 · Cited by 477 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Pauliuk, S., Sjöstrand, K., & Müller, D. B.
- Affiliations
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- Corresponding author
- Pauliuk, Stefan
- Venue
- Journal of Industrial Ecology
- Published
- 2013-01-18
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 542-554
- ISSN
- 1088-1980 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9290
- OpenAlex
- W1922065933
- Cited by
- 102
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 3
- FWCI
- 6.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Industrial Ecology (publishedVersion)
- BIBSYS Brage (BIBSYS (Norway)) (submittedVersion)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Building Energy and Comfort Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Building energy efficiency and sustainability
- Keywords
- residential buildings, building energy efficiency, Reconstruction, passive house standard, building carbon emissions, climate change mitigation, material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, hot water production, lifestyle modification, Norway
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