The DOI matches its Crossref record; 41 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 14 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Potential impact of climate change on marine export production
Open accessAbstract
Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system. We have investigated the response of marine productivity to global warming with two different ocean biogeochemical schemes and two different atmosphere‐ocean coupled general circulation models (GCM). Both coupled GCMs were used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (+1% CO 2/yr for 80 years). At 2×CO 2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency. Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (−6%), although regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from −15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean). Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the effect of reduced upwelling prevails. The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long‐term observing systems are implemented.
Overview
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Using two coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs and two biogeochemical schemes, Bopp et al. simulate a +1% CO2/yr increase to 2xCO2 and find a ~6% global decline in marine export production, with low-latitude decreases and high-latitude increases. The response is driven by increased stratification reducing nutrient supply and lengthening the growing season, but regional results depend strongly on ocean dynamics and biogeochemical complexity.
Key findings
- At 2xCO2 (years 65–75), all three simulations predict a global export-production decrease of about 6%: LG 13.1→12.3 GtC yr−1 (−6.6%), AG 9.5→8.9 GtC yr−1 (−5.9%), and LB 11.1→10.3 GtC yr−1 (−6.6%). Low latitudes decline (−10.1%, −10.9%, −11.0%) while high latitudes increase (+5.1%, +5.5%, +12.5%); the text reports tropical zonal decreases reaching −15 to −20% and subpolar increases greater than 10%.
- Mechanisms: increased upper-ocean stratification reduces nutrient supply (surface PO4 decreases; upwelling reduced nearly −10%) and increases light efficiency via a longer growing season, which lengthens by up to 50 days at 2xCO2. This produces a poleward shift of marine production.
- LB diagnostics show declines in total primary production (−8.9%), surface phytoplankton cell content (−6.3%), and surface chlorophyll (−8.5%). In the LG run extended to 4xCO2, export production is reduced by more than 15%; around 3xCO2 (year 110) it is reduced by 11%.
- Detectability: in the equatorial Pacific, Δ/σ reaches 1 after 30 years and 2 after 60 years; the detectability index reaches 2 after 30 years, or 45 years if interannual variability is doubled. The authors suggest detection may be possible when atmospheric pCO2 reaches 450 ppm.
Methods
- Offline biogeochemical simulations were forced by archived ocean advection and vertical diffusion from two coupled GCMs (LMD5/OPAICE and ARPEGE/OPAICE), both using the OPAICE ocean model. Control pCO2 was 350 ppm; the scenario increased CO2 at 1% yr−1 for 80 years to 2xCO2 (700 ppm), without flux correction.
- Two biogeochemical schemes were used: G (HAMOCC3, phosphate-based, no explicit biology) coupled to L and A, and B (P3ZD NPZD, explicit plankton) coupled to L, giving three pairs: LG, AG, and LB. Simulations were initialized from the final steady state of Aumont et al. [1999].
- Control runs were evaluated against observations (PO4, SeaWiFS chlorophyll, export production). Global warming response was analyzed as scenario minus control at 2xCO2 (years 65–75), with zonal means, sensitivity tests, and a detectability index.
Limitations
- Stated: two major uncertainties are ocean dynamics and biogeochemical scheme. AG and LG differ notably in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific; the Southern Ocean is particularly sensitive. Better hydrological cycle representation, subgrid-scale eddy mixing, downslope transport, and higher resolution are needed.
- Stated: phosphate-based schemes lack limitation by Fe, N, and Si and do not account for plankton species competition or external atmospheric iron deposition. B includes zooplankton grazing but omits other nutrients. Control biases include SST errors, inadequate Antarctic sea ice, mixed-layer depth biases, and overestimated chlorophyll in equatorial Pacific/HNLC regions.
- Evident from the text: regional conclusions are model-dependent; for example, LB shows no change in the North Pacific while LG and AG predict a 10–20% decrease, and Southern Ocean patterns differ among models. The paper itself notes that the link between the present ocean state and future changes is not clear.
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Claims the paper makes
11 Own result · 7 Own interpretation · 5 Sources not found · 4 Own method · 3 Not checked yet · 2 No basis given · 1 No full text of the sources
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (-6%)”
- Also stated in: § 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13 · plain
“All three models simulate a reduction of ~ 6% (Table 2).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from -15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean)”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All three models simulate a reduction of ~ 6% (Table 2).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Marine productivity in our global warming simulations was substantially altered, relative to the control with both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This global decrease in export production is linked to a decrease of similar magnitude of the mean surface phosphate concentration (Figure 6a).”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Models AG, LG, and LB all predict a global decrease in export production at 2xCO2, i.e., during years 65-75 (Figure 6b).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For simulation LBc, the mechanisms of export are more complex so that the link between export production and surface PO₄³- concentrations is not so evident.”
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In the paper
“Both global warming simulations (As and Ls) showed substantial change relative to their control runs (Ac and Lc) [Barthelet et al., 1998a,b].”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Barthelet et al., 1998a,b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Except during the first 20 years of AG simulation, all models show a positive correlation between global export production and global mean surface PO₄³- concentration.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- It may state two separate claims as one. 11
- Probably not a substantial claim. 4
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the Southern Ocean though, export production simulated in LGc and AGc is much larger than derived estimates. Conversely, much better agreement is found with simulation LBc, with its more sophisticated biogeochemistry.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
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In the paper
“The increase in precipitation over the ocean during the last decade of integration was +2-3% for Ls-Lc and +3-4% for As-Ac.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
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In the paper
“Most notable were increases in SST (Figure 2b) and near-surface ocean stratification, owing both to warming and increased precipitation (Figure 2c).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Simulated EP is 13.1 GtC yr−1 in LGc, 9.5 GtC yr−1 in AGc, and 11.1 GtC yr−1 in LBc.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 2xCO2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Coupled models converge to a global warming and simulate that Earth's surface warms by 1°- 3°C when atmospheric CO2 reaches twice its preindustrial concentration [Houghton et al., 1996].”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Houghton et al., 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These global estimates fall in the range of POC export production estimated from observations (3.5-20 GtC yr−1) [Berger and Wefer, 1991; Jahnke, 1996] as well as that from simulations with other global carbon cycle models (8.5-15 GtC yr−1)”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Berger and Wefer, 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Jahnke, 1996 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“This G scheme, coupled to OPA (Océan Parallélisé), has been validated both for the seasonal cycle of biogeochemical tracers [Aumont, 1998] and for the interannual variability of carbon fluxes to the ocean [Le Quéré et al., 2000].”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Aumont, 1998
- Not matchedcites Le Quéré et al., 2000
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall atmospheric and oceanic circulations simulated in both control simulations are generally consistent with modern observations and thus capture the gross features of the present-day climate.”
plaincorrelationaln = 2- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus the maximum in export production in the central and western equatorial Pacific is not due to higher productivity than in the eastern part. Instead, it is explained by a larger vertical extent of production in this region (due to a deep mixed layer) unlike in the east where all production occurs within the top 30 m (due to a shallow mixed layer).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long-term observing systems are implemented.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Any such changes in marine productivity would propagate up to the marine foodweb.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Again, we emphasize that all three of our biogeochemical schemes are phosphate based. They lack limitation by other nutrients such as Fe, N, and Si. They will thus necessarily fail to reproduce many patterns”
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both estimates fall within the range of other CMIP models (1°-3°C).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Our second biogeochemical scheme is more true to that term since it explicitly includes plankton dynamics.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Aumont et al., 2000
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The deeper that POC production occurs, the less it is regenerated in the first 100 m by grazing or remineralization, and the more it is exported.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Future climate change will affect marine productivity.
“Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Phytoplankton growth depends on the local conditions of light, temperature, and vertical eddy diffusion, which acts to homogenize the concentration of phytoplankton cells throughout the complete mixed layer.
“Phytoplankton growth depends on the local conditions of light, temperature, and vertical eddy diffusion, which acts to homogenize the concentration of phytoplankton cells throughout the complete mixed layer.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the top 100 m of the water column, POC sinks at a constant rate.
“In the top 100 m of the water column, POC is assumed to sink at a constant r a s sd ( om depth and thereby contribute to particulate export production as defined for this paper.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Any such changes in marine productivity would propagate up to the marine foodweb.
“Any such changes would obviously propagate up to the marine foodweb.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ 5. Conclusion · p. 19
“Climate-induced changes in the ocean decreased export production by 20% in the low latitudes but increased export production by 30% in the high latitudes.”
§ 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 14
“| High Latitude | 0.87 | 0.91 (+5.1%) | 0.87 | 0.93 (+5.5%) | 0.27 | 0.30 (+12.5%) | | Midlatitude | 6.5 | 6.1 (-5.1%) | 5.2 | 4.9 (-4.7%) | 4.0 | 3.9 (-0.5%) | | Low Latitude | 5.8 | 5.2 (-10.1%) | 3.5 | 3.1 (-10.9%) | 6.8 | 6.1 (-11.0%) |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 2.2. Biogeochemical Schemes · p. 5
“| AGs | HAMOCC3 | Ls |”
§ 2.1. Climate Models · p. 4
“| As | Scenario | ARPEGE/OPAICE |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.4. Limits and Uncertainties · p. 17
“slight increase of export (Plates 2d and 2e).”
§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 12
“Plate 2. Export Production (in gC m−2 yr−1) for (a) LGc, (b) LGs-LGc at 2xCO2, (c) AGc, (d) AGs-AGc, (e) LBc, and (f) LBs-LBc.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.4. Limits and Uncertainties · p. 19
“When DI reaches 2, simulated export in LGs is significantly different from that in LBc at a 95% confidence level.”
§ 4.4. Limits and Uncertainties · p. 19
“The evolution of export production in the equatorial Pacific, simulated with LBs, shows a rapid decline.”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J., Le Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., & Orr, J. C.
- Venue
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2001-03
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 81-99
- ISSN
- 0886-6236 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-9224
- OpenAlex
- W1973095441
- Semantic Scholar
- 25569a9b12bdc21407f3e73f4cc6499d87b6d440
- Cited by
- 514
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 22 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 11.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hal.science
- Locations
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles (publishedVersion)
- HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) (submittedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine Plankton and Biogeochemistry
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, ocean primary productivity, ocean stratification, nutrient supply, light efficiency, upwelling, poleward shift, growing season, greenhouse gas increase, Southern Ocean, tropical oceans
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