The DOI matches its Crossref record; 41 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 14 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Potential impact of climate change on marine export production
Open accessAbstract
Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system. We have investigated the response of marine productivity to global warming with two different ocean biogeochemical schemes and two different atmosphere‐ocean coupled general circulation models (GCM). Both coupled GCMs were used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (+1% CO 2/yr for 80 years). At 2×CO 2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency. Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (−6%), although regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from −15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean). Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the effect of reduced upwelling prevails. The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long‐term observing systems are implemented.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Using two coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs and two biogeochemical schemes, Bopp et al. simulate a +1% CO2/yr increase to 2xCO2 and find a ~6% global decline in marine export production, with low-latitude decreases and high-latitude increases. The response is driven by increased stratification reducing nutrient supply and lengthening the growing season, but regional results depend strongly on ocean dynamics and biogeochemical complexity.
Key findings
- At 2xCO2 (years 65–75), all three simulations predict a global export-production decrease of about 6%: LG 13.1→12.3 GtC yr−1 (−6.6%), AG 9.5→8.9 GtC yr−1 (−5.9%), and LB 11.1→10.3 GtC yr−1 (−6.6%). Low latitudes decline (−10.1%, −10.9%, −11.0%) while high latitudes increase (+5.1%, +5.5%, +12.5%); the text reports tropical zonal decreases reaching −15 to −20% and subpolar increases greater than 10%.
- Mechanisms: increased upper-ocean stratification reduces nutrient supply (surface PO4 decreases; upwelling reduced nearly −10%) and increases light efficiency via a longer growing season, which lengthens by up to 50 days at 2xCO2. This produces a poleward shift of marine production.
- LB diagnostics show declines in total primary production (−8.9%), surface phytoplankton cell content (−6.3%), and surface chlorophyll (−8.5%). In the LG run extended to 4xCO2, export production is reduced by more than 15%; around 3xCO2 (year 110) it is reduced by 11%.
- Detectability: in the equatorial Pacific, Δ/σ reaches 1 after 30 years and 2 after 60 years; the detectability index reaches 2 after 30 years, or 45 years if interannual variability is doubled. The authors suggest detection may be possible when atmospheric pCO2 reaches 450 ppm.
Methods
- Offline biogeochemical simulations were forced by archived ocean advection and vertical diffusion from two coupled GCMs (LMD5/OPAICE and ARPEGE/OPAICE), both using the OPAICE ocean model. Control pCO2 was 350 ppm; the scenario increased CO2 at 1% yr−1 for 80 years to 2xCO2 (700 ppm), without flux correction.
- Two biogeochemical schemes were used: G (HAMOCC3, phosphate-based, no explicit biology) coupled to L and A, and B (P3ZD NPZD, explicit plankton) coupled to L, giving three pairs: LG, AG, and LB. Simulations were initialized from the final steady state of Aumont et al. [1999].
- Control runs were evaluated against observations (PO4, SeaWiFS chlorophyll, export production). Global warming response was analyzed as scenario minus control at 2xCO2 (years 65–75), with zonal means, sensitivity tests, and a detectability index.
Limitations
- Stated: two major uncertainties are ocean dynamics and biogeochemical scheme. AG and LG differ notably in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific; the Southern Ocean is particularly sensitive. Better hydrological cycle representation, subgrid-scale eddy mixing, downslope transport, and higher resolution are needed.
- Stated: phosphate-based schemes lack limitation by Fe, N, and Si and do not account for plankton species competition or external atmospheric iron deposition. B includes zooplankton grazing but omits other nutrients. Control biases include SST errors, inadequate Antarctic sea ice, mixed-layer depth biases, and overestimated chlorophyll in equatorial Pacific/HNLC regions.
- Evident from the text: regional conclusions are model-dependent; for example, LB shows no change in the North Pacific while LG and AG predict a 10–20% decrease, and Southern Ocean patterns differ among models. The paper itself notes that the link between the present ocean state and future changes is not clear.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
11 Own result · 7 Own interpretation · 5 Sources not found · 4 Own method · 3 Not checked yet · 2 No basis given · 1 No full text of the sources
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (-6%)”
- Also stated in: § 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13 · plain
“All three models simulate a reduction of ~ 6% (Table 2).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from -15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean)”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All three models simulate a reduction of ~ 6% (Table 2).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Marine productivity in our global warming simulations was substantially altered, relative to the control with both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This global decrease in export production is linked to a decrease of similar magnitude of the mean surface phosphate concentration (Figure 6a).”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Models AG, LG, and LB all predict a global decrease in export production at 2xCO2, i.e., during years 65-75 (Figure 6b).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For simulation LBc, the mechanisms of export are more complex so that the link between export production and surface PO₄³- concentrations is not so evident.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Both global warming simulations (As and Ls) showed substantial change relative to their control runs (Ac and Lc) [Barthelet et al., 1998a,b].”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Barthelet et al., 1998a,b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Except during the first 20 years of AG simulation, all models show a positive correlation between global export production and global mean surface PO₄³- concentration.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 11
- Probably not a substantial claim. 4
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the Southern Ocean though, export production simulated in LGc and AGc is much larger than derived estimates. Conversely, much better agreement is found with simulation LBc, with its more sophisticated biogeochemistry.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The increase in precipitation over the ocean during the last decade of integration was +2-3% for Ls-Lc and +3-4% for As-Ac.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most notable were increases in SST (Figure 2b) and near-surface ocean stratification, owing both to warming and increased precipitation (Figure 2c).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Simulated EP is 13.1 GtC yr−1 in LGc, 9.5 GtC yr−1 in AGc, and 11.1 GtC yr−1 in LBc.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 2xCO2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Coupled models converge to a global warming and simulate that Earth's surface warms by 1°- 3°C when atmospheric CO2 reaches twice its preindustrial concentration [Houghton et al., 1996].”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Houghton et al., 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These global estimates fall in the range of POC export production estimated from observations (3.5-20 GtC yr−1) [Berger and Wefer, 1991; Jahnke, 1996] as well as that from simulations with other global carbon cycle models (8.5-15 GtC yr−1)”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Berger and Wefer, 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Jahnke, 1996 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“This G scheme, coupled to OPA (Océan Parallélisé), has been validated both for the seasonal cycle of biogeochemical tracers [Aumont, 1998] and for the interannual variability of carbon fluxes to the ocean [Le Quéré et al., 2000].”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Aumont, 1998
- Not matchedcites Le Quéré et al., 2000
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall atmospheric and oceanic circulations simulated in both control simulations are generally consistent with modern observations and thus capture the gross features of the present-day climate.”
plaincorrelationaln = 2- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus the maximum in export production in the central and western equatorial Pacific is not due to higher productivity than in the eastern part. Instead, it is explained by a larger vertical extent of production in this region (due to a deep mixed layer) unlike in the east where all production occurs within the top 30 m (due to a shallow mixed layer).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long-term observing systems are implemented.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Any such changes in marine productivity would propagate up to the marine foodweb.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Again, we emphasize that all three of our biogeochemical schemes are phosphate based. They lack limitation by other nutrients such as Fe, N, and Si. They will thus necessarily fail to reproduce many patterns”
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both estimates fall within the range of other CMIP models (1°-3°C).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Our second biogeochemical scheme is more true to that term since it explicitly includes plankton dynamics.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Aumont et al., 2000
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The deeper that POC production occurs, the less it is regenerated in the first 100 m by grazing or remineralization, and the more it is exported.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Future climate change will affect marine productivity.
“Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Phytoplankton growth depends on the local conditions of light, temperature, and vertical eddy diffusion, which acts to homogenize the concentration of phytoplankton cells throughout the complete mixed layer.
“Phytoplankton growth depends on the local conditions of light, temperature, and vertical eddy diffusion, which acts to homogenize the concentration of phytoplankton cells throughout the complete mixed layer.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the top 100 m of the water column, POC sinks at a constant rate.
“In the top 100 m of the water column, POC is assumed to sink at a constant r a s sd ( om depth and thereby contribute to particulate export production as defined for this paper.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Any such changes in marine productivity would propagate up to the marine foodweb.
“Any such changes would obviously propagate up to the marine foodweb.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ 5. Conclusion · p. 19
“Climate-induced changes in the ocean decreased export production by 20% in the low latitudes but increased export production by 30% in the high latitudes.”
§ 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 14
“| High Latitude | 0.87 | 0.91 (+5.1%) | 0.87 | 0.93 (+5.5%) | 0.27 | 0.30 (+12.5%) | | Midlatitude | 6.5 | 6.1 (-5.1%) | 5.2 | 4.9 (-4.7%) | 4.0 | 3.9 (-0.5%) | | Low Latitude | 5.8 | 5.2 (-10.1%) | 3.5 | 3.1 (-10.9%) | 6.8 | 6.1 (-11.0%) |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 2.2. Biogeochemical Schemes · p. 5
“| AGs | HAMOCC3 | Ls |”
§ 2.1. Climate Models · p. 4
“| As | Scenario | ARPEGE/OPAICE |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.4. Limits and Uncertainties · p. 17
“slight increase of export (Plates 2d and 2e).”
§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 12
“Plate 2. Export Production (in gC m−2 yr−1) for (a) LGc, (b) LGs-LGc at 2xCO2, (c) AGc, (d) AGs-AGc, (e) LBc, and (f) LBs-LBc.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.4. Limits and Uncertainties · p. 19
“When DI reaches 2, simulated export in LGs is significantly different from that in LBc at a 95% confidence level.”
§ 4.4. Limits and Uncertainties · p. 19
“The evolution of export production in the equatorial Pacific, simulated with LBs, shows a rapid decline.”
Citations
Cites
Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean
Levitus, S. (1983) · Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union · doi:10.1029/eo064i049p00962-02 · Cited by 3,078
VERTEX: carbon cycling in the northeast Pacific
Martin, J. H., Knauer, G. A., Karl, D. M., & Broenkow, W. W. (1987) · Deep Sea Research Part A. Oceanographic Research Papers · doi:10.1016/0198-0149(87)90086-0 · Cited by 2,100
Climate change 1995: The Science of Climate Change
Unwin, D. (1997) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/s0143-6228(97)83235-3 · Cited by 1,692
Coale, K. H., Johnson, K. S., Fitzwater, S. E., Gordon, R. M., Tanner, S., Chavez, F. P., Ferioli, L., Sakamoto, C., Rogers, P., Millero, F., et al. (1996) · Nature · doi:10.1038/383495a0 · Cited by 1,479
Particulate organic carbon flux in the oceans—surface productivity and oxygen utilization
Suess, E. (1980) · Nature · doi:10.1038/288260a0 · Cited by 1,384
Antoine, D., André, J., & Morel, A. (1996) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/95gb02832 · Cited by 911
Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming
Sarmiento, J. L., Hughes, T. M. C., Stouffer, R. J., & Manabe, S. (1998) · Nature · doi:10.1038/30455 · Cited by 899
Phytoplankton Community Structure and the Drawdown of Nutrients and CO 2 in the Southern Ocean
Arrigo, K. R., Robinson, D. H., Worthen, D. L., Dunbar, R. B., DiTullio, G. R., VanWoert, M., & Lizotte, M. P. (1999) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.283.5400.365 · Cited by 786
The ARPEGE/IFS atmosphere model: a contribution to the French community climate modelling
Déqué, M., Dreveton, C., Braun, A., & Cariolle, D. (1994) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/bf00208992 · Cited by 589
Silicate regulation of new production in the equatorial Pacific upwelling
Dugdale, R. C., & Wilkerson, F. P. (1998) · Nature · doi:10.1038/34630 · Cited by 508
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- Filiberti M.‐A., 1999, Igloo sea‐ice model version 1.0, Notes techniques du pole de modelisation
- Lazar A., 2001, A rationalization of the Veronis upwelling/downwelling system and its sensitivity to mixing parameterizations in an idealized OGCM, J. Phys. Oceanogr.
- Madec G., 1997, OPA Version 8.0 Ocean General Circulation model, Reference manual
- Sadourny R., 1984, New Perspectives in Climate Modeling, 173
- Terray L., 1999, The OASIS coupler user guide, version 2.3
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A., Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., et al. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04095 · Cited by 4,590
Self-citationMultiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P. R., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., et al. (2013) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013 · Cited by 1,809
“…ocean stratification and changes in ocean mixing and ventilation that could induce indirect effects, which in turn reduce subsurface dissolved O 2 concentrations (Plattner et al., 2001) and supply of nutri-ents to the euphotic layer, increasing nutrient stress for phytoplankton (Bopp et al., 2001).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSelf-citationHuman-induced nitrogen–phosphorus imbalances alter natural and managed ecosystems across the globe
Peñuelas, J., Poulter, B., Sardans, J., Ciais, P., van der Velde, M., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Goddéris, Y., Hinsinger, P., Llusià, J., et al. (2013) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms3934 · Cited by 1,604
Self-citationThe Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Prentice, I. C., Farquhar, G. D., Fasham, M. J. R., GOULDEN, M. L., Heimann, M., Jaramillo, V. J., Kheshgi, H. S., Quéré, C. L., Scholes, R. J., Wallace, D. W. R., et al. (2001) · HAL · Cited by 1,128
Self-citationSummer heatwaves promote blooms of harmful cyanobacteria
Jöhnk, K., Huisman, J., Sharples, J., Sommeijer, B. P., Visser, P., & Stroom, J. M. (2007) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01510.x · Cited by 1,098
“Warming of surface layers will increase vertical stratification, which suppresses the upward flux of nutrients (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2004).”
BackgroundLeckie, R. M., Bralower, T. J., & Cashman, R. (2002) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/2001pa000623 · Cited by 976
“Coupled atmosphereocean general circulation models with two different biogeochemical schemes predict that rising levels of CO2 and global warming will cause increased ocean stratification leading to reduced nutrient supply to the euphotic zone and increased light efficiency (longer growing season), with both effects c…”
BackgroundZooplankton fecal pellets, marine snow, phytodetritus and the ocean’s biological pump
Turner, J. T. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.08.005 · Cited by 1,048
“…of the export flux through the biological pump, particularly in alreadystratified waters of the tropics and subtropics (Behrenfeld et al., 2006; Bopp et al., 2001; Boyce et al., 2010; Doney, 2006; Huisman et al., 2006; Matear and Hirst, 1999; Norris et al., 2013; Sarmiento et al., 1998, 2004;…”
BackgroundKwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., et al. (2020) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020 · Cited by 897
“Earth system model projections consistently show enhanced stratification and associated reductions in euphotic zone nutrient concentrations under scenarios of climate change (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2004; Cabré et al., 2014; Fu et al., 2016).”
BackgroundSelf-citationResponse of ocean ecosystems to climate warming
Sarmiento, J., Slater, R., Barber, R., Bopp, L., Doney, S., Hirst, A., Kleypas, J., Matear, R., Mikolajewicz, U., Monfray, P., et al. (2004) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2003gb002134 · Cited by 982
“Cycles, 18, GB3003, doi:10.1029/2003GB002134.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationUpper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model
Moore, J. K., Doney, S. C., & Lindsay, K. (2004) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2004gb002220 · Cited by 889
“Basin- and global-scale ecosystem modeling studies have been published during the past decade, but most have not included iron as a limiting nutrient [i.e., Sarmiento et al., 1993; Six and Maier-Reimer, 1996; Oschlies and Garçon, 1999; Bopp et al., 2001; Palmer and Totterdell, 2001].”
BackgroundResultEcosystem dynamics based on plankton functional types for global ocean biogeochemistry models
Quéré, C. L., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Buitenhuis, E. T., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Claustre, H., da Cunha, L. C., Geider, R. J., Giraud, X., et al. (2005) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.1004.x · Cited by 894
“(2001) and include results from ocean models (Maier-Reimer et al., 1996; Sarmiento et al., 1998; Joos et al., 1999; Matear & Hirst 1999; Bopp et al., 2001; Dutay et al., 2002) and terrestrial models (Cramer et al.”
BackgroundSelf-citationA Global Pattern of Thermal Adaptation in Marine Phytoplankton
Thomas, M. K., Kremer, C. T., Klausmeier, C. A., & Litchman, E. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1224836 · Cited by 847
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S. C., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., et al. (2010) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-7-979-2010 · Cited by 675
Self-citationClimate change and the future for coral reef fishes
Munday, P. L., Jones, G. P., Pratchett, M. S., & Williams, A. J. (2008) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00281.x · Cited by 639
“…in primary productivity caused by increased thermal stratification of the water column and reduced nutrient input from cooler, deeper waters, combined with increased metabolic rates of most organisms at higher ocean temperatures (Bopp et al. 2001, 2005; Loukos et al. 2003; Hobday et al. 2006).”
BackgroundIncreasing importance of small phytoplankton in a warmer ocean
Morán, X. A. G., López‐Urrutia, Á., Calvo‐Díaz, A., & Li, W. K. W. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01960.x · Cited by 610
“…on the biomass and production of phytoplankton assemblages in the context of global ocean warming have been addressed in several studies (Bopp et al., 2001; Richardson & Schoeman, 2004; Behrenfeld et al., 2006; Li et al., 2006a), but seldom focused specifically on the smallest size…”
BackgroundWarming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change
Gruber, N. (2011) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0003 · Cited by 588
Abyssal food limitation, ecosystem structure and climate change
SMITH, C., Deleo, F., Bernardino, A. F., SWEETMAN, A., & Arbizu, P. M. (2008) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2008.05.002 · Cited by 603
Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food‐web models
Siegel, D. A., Buesseler, K. O., Doney, S. C., Sailley, S. F., Behrenfeld, M. J., & Boyd, P. W. (2014) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2013gb004743 · Cited by 498
Doney, S. C. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/444695a · Cited by 481
Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity
Henson, S., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P. P., Bopp, L., Lima, I. D., Doney, S. C., John, J. G., & Beaulieu, C. (2010) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-7-621-2010 · Cited by 507
“Similarly, an experiment with an earlier version of the IPSL model, forced with a CO2 doubling scenario, demonstrated that it took between 30 and 60 years to detect changes in export production in the equatorial Pacific (Bopp et al., 2001).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationUnderstanding the export of biogenic particles in oceanic waters: Is there consensus?
Boyd, P. W., & Trull, T. W. (2006) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2006.10.007 · Cited by 508
Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health
Moore, S. K., Trainer, V. L., Mantua, N. J., Parker, M. S., Laws, E. A., Backer, L. C., & Fleming, L. E. (2008) · Environmental Health · doi:10.1186/1476-069x-7-s2-s4 · Cited by 485
“These studies suggest that the warmer upper ocean temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios will increase stratification of the water column and differentially influence phytoplankton growth in the global oceans [23,30-34].”
BackgroundResponse of diatoms distribution to global warming and potential implications: A global model study
Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Cadule, P., Alvain, S., & Gehlen, M. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl023653 · Cited by 455
“Subsequent higher productivity at high latitudes is more than counter-balanced by an increase in the severity and the spatial extent of the oligotrophic regions [Bopp et al., 2001], thus leading to a mean reduction of global ocean primary productivity.”
BackgroundSelf-citationSouthern Ocean Phytoplankton in a Changing Climate
Deppeler, S., & Davidson, A. T. (2017) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00040 · Cited by 473
“Some studies suggest that an increase in open ocean habitat will increase production in this region (Bopp et al., 2001; Behrenfeld et al., 2006).”
BackgroundMajor impacts of climate change on deep-sea benthic ecosystems
Sweetman, A. K., Thurber, A. R., Smith, C. R., Levin, L. A., Mora, C., Wei, C., GOODAY, A. J., Jones, D. O. B., Rex, M. A., Yasuhara, M., et al. (2017) · Elementa Science of the Anthropocene · doi:10.1525/elementa.203 · Cited by 457
“Major changes in the upper ocean resulting from global warming are likely to include increased sea-surface temperatures and thermal stratification, and reduced nutrient upwelling over vast areas of the open ocean (Bopp et al., 2001; Gregg et al., 2003; Fischlin et al., 2007; Smith et al., 2008).”
BackgroundBoyd, P. W., Rynearson, T. A., Armstrong, E. A., Fu, F., Hayashi, K., Hu, Z., Hutchins, D. A., Kudela, R. M., Litchman, E., Mulholland, M. R., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0063091 · Cited by 429
“To date, much of the progress in understanding how climate change will manifest itself in the ocean has come from projections obtained from global modelling experiments using general circulation or coupled ocean atmosphere models [1,2].”
BackgroundCoccolithophores and the biological pump: responses to environmental changes
Rost, B., & Riebesell, U. (2004) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-06278-4_5 · Cited by 416
“Recent model calculations indicate large regional differences in the effects of climate change on the marine ecosystem, predicting a 20% decrease in export production in low latitudes and a 30% increase in high latitudes for a 2 × CO2 scenario (Bopp et al. 2001).”
BackgroundMarine viruses and global climate change
Danovaro, R., Corinaldesi, C., Dell’Anno, A., Fuhrman, J. A., Middelburg, J. J., Noble, R. T., & Suttle, C. A. (2010) · FEMS Microbiology Reviews · doi:10.1111/j.1574-6976.2010.00258.x · Cited by 428
Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita, M. N., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E. T., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P. P., Hashioka, T., et al. (2015) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015 · Cited by 439
“Further, top– down control affects the onset of the spring bloom (Behrenfeld, 2010; Behrenfeld et al., 2013), influences primary production in a trait-based ecosystem model (Prowe et al., 2012) and affects NPP and export production changes on regional scales (Bopp et al., 2001).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSelf-citationSchmittner, A., Oschlies, A., Matthews, H. D., & Galbraith, E. D. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb002953 · Cited by 427
“They increase at high latitudes because of reduced sea ice cover and a longer growing season in agreement with earlier findings by Bopp et al. [2001]. North of about 55!N, plankton abundance increases in the North Atlantic because of deeper mixed layers and a northward shift in convections sites.”
ResultThe biological pump in a high CO2 world
Passow, U., & Carlson, C. (2012) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps09985 · Cited by 440
“While we can predict changes due to individual forces (Table 2), or a combination of forces (Bopp et al. 2001), we are currently unable to predict with certainty if the global biological pump will strengthen or weaken in the next 100 yr.”
BackgroundReduced mixing generates oscillations and chaos in the oceanic deep chlorophyll maximum
Huisman, J., Thi, N. N. P., Karl, D. M., & Sommeijer, B. P. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04245 · Cited by 393
Science Plan and Implementation Strategy
Young, B., Noone, K. J., & Steffen, W. (2006) · Cited by 387
Moore, J. K., Lindsay, K., Doney, S. C., Long, M. C., & Misumi, K. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00566.1 · Cited by 400
Alvain, S., Moulin, C., Dandonneau, Y., & Loisel, H. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb003154 · Cited by 394
“…biological pump participates in regulating the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and is thought to be very sensitive to the forthcoming climate change [Cox et al., 2000; Bopp et al., 2001; Dufresnes et al., 2002; Sarmiento et al., 2004; Le Quéré and Metzl, 2004; Le Quéré et al., 2006].”
BackgroundRost, B., Zondervan, I., & Wolf-Gladrow, D. A. (2008) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps07776 · Cited by 373
“…further extension of nutrient-limited, low-productivity regions such as subtropical gyres (Bopp et al. 2001, Behrenfeld et al. 2006), and increases in productivity in high-latitude regions currently light-limited owing to pronounced vertical mixing can be expected (Bopp et al. 2001, Doney 2006).”
BackgroundClimate‐induced oceanic oxygen fluxes: Implications for the contemporary carbon budget
Bopp, L., Quéré, C. L., Heimann, M., Manning, A. C., & Monfray, P. (2002) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2001gb001445 · Cited by 339
“[46] To test the robustness of this relationship, two other simulations were used [Friedlingstein et al., 2001; Bopp et al., 2001].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationEnvironmental control of open‐ocean phytoplankton groups: Now and in the future
Boyd, P., Strzepek, R., Fu, F.-X., & Hutchins, D. A. (2010) · Limnology and Oceanography · doi:10.4319/lo.2010.55.3.1353 · Cited by 323
“On this basis, some modeling studies (Bopp et al. 2001; Behrenfeld et al. 2006) predict that climate change may increase net primary production at high latitudes but decrease it in low-latitude waters.”
BackgroundDecline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation
Schmittner, A. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03476 · Cited by 351
“In the case of enhanced future global warming, additional effects such as increased stratification due to upper ocean warming will affect marine productivit”
BackgroundSensitivities of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change
Riebesell, U., Körtzinger, A., & Oschlies, A. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0813291106 · Cited by 341
Gruber, N. (2008) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-372522-6.00001-3 · Cited by 362
“On the other hand, export production in the mid-to high-latitudes may actually increase due to lower light stress in a shallower mixed layer (Bopp et al., 2001).”
BackgroundModelling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change
Boyd, P., & Doney, S. (2002) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2001gl014130 · Cited by 347
“To account for the effect of multidecadal to centennial trends in upper thermocline nutrient fields, the subsurface nutrient fields are reduced uniformly by 10% after Bopp et al. [2001]. Note, that accurate predictions of the biotic response to reduced nutrients require data on algal uptake kinetics in relation to cha…”
MethodOn the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources
Stock, C. A. A., Alexander, M. A., Bond, N. A., Brander, K., Cheung, W. W. L., Curchitser, E., Delworth, T. L., Dunne, J. P. P., Griffies, S. M., Haltuch, M. A., et al. (2010) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.001 · Cited by 322
Temperature–nutrient interactions exacerbate sensitivity to warming in phytoplankton
Thomas, M. K., Aranguren‐Gassis, M., Kremer, C. T., Gould, M. R., Anderson, K., Klausmeier, C. A., & Litchman, E. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13641 · Cited by 315
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTROLLING PHYTOPLANKTON PROCESSES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN1
Boyd, P. W. (2002) · Journal of Phycology · doi:10.1046/j.1529-8817.2002.t01-1-01203.x · Cited by 305
“…Nelson et al. 2001) and Indian (modeling, Pondaven et al. 2000) sectors by Nelson et al. (2001). climate variability and change At present, global circulation models predict that climate change will have a marked effect on the South- ern Ocean (Sarmiento et al. 1998, Bopp et al. 2001).”
BackgroundMatear, R. J., & Hirst, A. C. (2003) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2002gb001997 · Cited by 303
“2 Gt C (7 decline) by 2100. The decline in the zonally export production occurs at all latitudes but the North Atlantic displays the greatest decline per unit area.”
BackgroundValenti, D., Denaro, G., Ferreri, R., Genovese, S., Aronica, S., Mazzola, S., Bonanno, A., Basilone, G., & Spagnolo, B. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-00112-z · Cited by 295
Yool, A., Popova, E. E., & Anderson, T. R. (2013) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-6-1767-2013 · Cited by 335
Climate-Driven Basin-Scale Decadal Oscillations of Oceanic Phytoplankton
Martinez, É., Antoine, D., D’Ortenzio, F., & Gentili, B. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1177012 · Cited by 284
Fu, W., Randerson, J. T., & Moore, J. K. (2016) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-13-5151-2016 · Cited by 321
Global change and the future of harmful algal blooms in the ocean
Fu, F., Tatters, A. O., & Hutchins, D. A. (2012) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps10047 · Cited by 294
Estimating global impacts from climate change
Hitz, S., & Smith, J. B. (2004) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.010 · Cited by 277
“We examined one study that analysed changes in the production of marine ecosystems due to climate change: Bopp et al. (2001).”
BackgroundMetrics that matter for assessing the ocean biological carbon pump
Buesseler, K. O., Boyd, P. W., Black, E. E., & Siegel, D. A. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1918114117 · Cited by 278
Feng, Y., Warner, M. E., Zhang, Y., Sun, J., Fu, F., Rose, J. M., & Hutchins, D. A. (2008) · European Journal of Phycology · doi:10.1080/09670260701664674 · Cited by 269
“Models have predicted that sea surface temperature (SST) will be elevated by at least a further 1–4°C in some areas of the ocean by the end of this century (Bopp et al , 2001 ; Sarmiento et al , 2002 ).”
BackgroundThe role of nutricline depth in regulating the ocean carbon cycle
Cermeño, P., Dutkiewicz, S., Harris, R., Follows, M. J., Schofield, O., & Falkowski, P. G. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0811302106 · Cited by 279
“Current evidence and modeling analyses suggest that climate warming will increase ocean stratification, and hence reduce nutrient exchange between the ocean interior and the upper mixed layer (21, 22).”
BackgroundSimulated 21st century's increase in oceanic suboxia by CO 2 ‐enhanced biotic carbon export
Oschlies, A., Schulz, K. G., Riebesell, U., & Schmittner, A. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb003147 · Cited by 285
“: RAPID INCREASE IN OCEANIC SUBOXIA 2 of 10 GB4008 upwelling of nutrients [Bopp et al., 2001].”
BackgroundFeng, Y., Hare, C. E., Leblanc, K., Rose, J. M., Zhang, Y., DiTullio, G., Lee, P., Wilhelm, S. W., Rowe, J., Sun, J., et al. (2009) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps08133 · Cited by 244
“At the same time, warming associated with the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has been predicted to raise sea surface temperature (SST) by 1 to 4°C over the next 100 yr (Bopp et al. 2001, Alley et al. 2007).”
BackgroundCan we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?
Taucher, J., & Oschlies, A. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2010gl045934 · Cited by 237
“In this regard, our results are consistent with results from previous studies [Bopp et al., 2001; Cox et al., 2000; Fung et al., 2005], which all project a decrease in”
BackgroundResultBiomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean
Chust, G., Allen, J. I., Bopp, L., Schrum, C., Holt, J., Tsiaras, K. P., Zavatarelli, M., Chifflet, M., Cannaby, H., Dadou, I., et al. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12562 · Cited by 262
“Bopp et al., 2001, 2013; Steinacher et al., 2010; Vichi et al., 2011), but relative and absolute magnitudes differ among models and regions. As in our case, multimodel comparisons (Steinacher et al., 2010; and Bopp et al., 2013) and the marine ecosystem model of Follows et al. (2007) with modifications (Dutkiewicz et…”
BackgroundSelf-citationCathalot, C., van Oevelen, D., Cox, T. J. S., Kutti, T., Lavaleye, M., Duineveld, G., & Meysman, F. J. R. (2015) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2015.00037 · Cited by 232
Toward a better understanding of fish‐based contribution to ocean carbon flux
Saba, G. K., Burd, A. B., Dunne, J. P. P., Hernández‐León, S., Martin, A. H., Rose, K. A., Salisbury, J. E., Steinberg, D. K., Trueman, C. N., Wilson, R. W., et al. (2021) · Limnology and Oceanography · doi:10.1002/lno.11709 · Cited by 233
“…(2001) Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation: LGc§ 100 13.1 2.1 Bopp et al. (2001) Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation: LBc¶ 100 11.1 1.8 Bopp et al. (2001) Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation: AGc** 100 9.5 1.5 Moore et al. (2001a,b) Prognostic ecosystem model†† NR 7.9…”
InfluentialBiogeography of the Global Ocean’s Mesopelagic Zone
Proud, R., Cox, M. J., & Brierley, A. S. (2016) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2016.11.003 · Cited by 231
Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling
Zepp, R. G., Erickson, D. J., PAUL, N. D., & Sulzberger, B. (2007) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1039/b700021a · Cited by 223
Annual net community production and the biological carbon flux in the ocean
Emerson, S. (2013) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2013gb004680 · Cited by 224
Doney, S. C., Lima, I. D., Moore, J. K., Lindsay, K., Behrenfeld, M. J., Westberry, T. K., Mahowald, N. M., Glover, D. M., & Takahashi, T. (2008) · Journal of Marine Systems · doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.015 · Cited by 228
Oceanographic and Biogeochemical Insights from Diatom Genomes
Bowler, C., Vardi, A., & Allen, A. E. (2009) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081051 · Cited by 230
On the magnitude of positive feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle
Dufresne, J., Fairhead, L., Treut, H. L., Berthelot, M., Bopp, L., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., & Monfray, P. (2002) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2001gl013777 · Cited by 219
“This seems to be in contradiction with previous ocean only model studies [Sarmiento et al., 1998; Joos et al., 1999; Bopp et al., 2001] which all simulated that climate change reduces ocean carbon uptake.”
ResultSelf-citationThe Biological Carbon Pump in the North Atlantic
SANDERS, R. J., Henson, S., Koski, M., Rocha, C. L. D. L., Painter, S. C., Poulton, A. J., Riley, J. S., Salihoğlu, B., Visser, A. W., Yool, A., et al. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.05.005 · Cited by 240
“climate in the future (Bopp et al., 2001; Feely et al., 2004).”
Marinov, I., Doney, S. C., & Lima, I. D. (2010) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-7-3941-2010 · Cited by 237
“In contrast, a longer growing season and decreased ice cover has been suggested to lead to increased marine biomass and thus production at high latitudes (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2004; Doney, 2006; Steinacher et al., 2010).”
BackgroundSources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors
Frölicher, T. L., Rodgers, K. B., Stock, C. A. A., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2016) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2015gb005338 · Cited by 215
“…1998; Capotondi et al., 2012], leading not only to a reduced supply of nutrients to the surface ocean and decreasing net primary productivity (NPP) [Bopp et al., 2001; Steinacher et al., 2010] but also to a reduced resupply of oxygen to the ocean's interior sustaining deoxygenation and an…”
BackgroundNutrient limitation suppresses the temperature dependence of phytoplankton metabolic rates
Emilio Marañón, C., Lorenzo, M. N., Cermeño, P., & Mouriño‐Carballido, B. (2018) · The ISME Journal · doi:10.1038/s41396-018-0105-1 · Cited by 219
“ductivity, as a result of enhanced thermal stratification and lower nutrient supply from sub-surface waters [9, 10].”
BackgroundAdaptation of phytoplankton to a decade of experimental warming linked to increased photosynthesis
Schaum, C., Barton, S., Bestion, E., et al. (2017) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0094 · Cited by 200
“ = − + − + − b T E kT kT b T ln( ( )) 1 1 ln( ( )) ln 1 e (5) E kT kT a c c 1 1 h h”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialBridging ocean color observations of the 1980s and 2000s in search of long‐term trends
Antoine, D., Morel, A., Gordon, H. R., Banzon, V. F., & Evans, R. H. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jc002620 · Cited by 208
“Their response to physical forcing is from hours to decades, the latter being probably typical of their slow response to global environmental changes [e.g., Bopp et al., 2001]; hence the need for long-term records.”
BackgroundZondervan, I. (2007) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2006.12.004 · Cited by 211
“Greenhouse warming may cause a warming of the ocean (Barnett et al., 2005) and a shallowing of the mixed layer (Levitus et al., 2000), changing nutrient concentrations and light conditions (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2004).”
BackgroundEmergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model
Rodgers, K. B., Lin, J., & Frölicher, T. L. (2015) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015 · Cited by 205
“, 1998), leading to a reduced supply of nutrients to the euphotic zone (Bopp et al., 2001; Steinacher et al., 2010), but also to a reduced resupply of oxygen to the ocean’s”
The trophodynamics of marine top predators: Current knowledge, recent advances and challenges
Young, J. W., Hunt, B. P. V., Cook, T. R., Llopiz, J. K., Hazen, E. L., Pethybridge, H. R., Ceccarelli, D., Lorrain, A., Olson, R. J., Allain, V., et al. (2015) · Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.05.015 · Cited by 195
“(Bopp et al., 2001; Hays et al., 2005; Richardson, 2008), these processes are likely to be key drivers of micronekton biomass and”
BackgroundEnvironmental fluctuations accelerate molecular evolution of thermal tolerance in a marine diatom
Schaum, C., Buckling, A., Smirnoff, N., Studholme, D. J., & Yvon‐Durocher, G. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03906-5 · Cited by 206
Chapter 1 Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change
Reid, P. C., Fischer, A. C., Lewis‐Brown, E., Meredith, M. P., Sparrow, M., Andersson, A. J., Antia, A., Bates, N. R., Bathmann, U., Beaugrand, G., et al. (2009) · Advances in marine biology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2881(09)56001-4 · Cited by 213
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P. P., Hauck, J., John, J. G., Lima, I. D., et al. (2016) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016 · Cited by 195
Self-citationHeterotrophic Bacterial Respiration
Robinson, C. (2008) · doi:10.1002/9780470281840.ch9 · Cited by 171
“Model simulations under warmer and more stratified conditions suggest that reduced nutrient availability would prevail in low and mid latitudes and shallower mixed layers would occur at high latitudes, together leading to an approximately 9 percent decrease in global primary production (Bopp et al. 2001).”
BackgroundClimate-mediated dance of the plankton
Behrenfeld, M. J. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2349 · Cited by 175
Winners and losers: Ecological and biogeochemical changes in a warming ocean
Dutkiewicz, S., Scott, J. R., & Follows, M. J. (2013) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/gbc.20042 · Cited by 173
“All Rights Reserved.”
Interactions of the iron and phosphorus cycles: A three‐dimensional model study
Dutkiewicz, S., Follows, M. J., & Parekh, P. (2005) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2004gb002342 · Cited by 177
“…the consequences of changes to productivity by other factors, such as increased stratification, longer growing season (e.g., in future climate change scenarios [Bopp et al., 2001]), may also be significant, especially in reference to nonlocal responses engendered by lateral supply of nutrients.”
BackgroundGlobal reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change
Jones, D. O. B., Yool, A., Wei, C., Henson, S., Ruhl, H. A., Watson, R. A., & Gehlen, M. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12480 · Cited by 180
“In turn, this is expected to reduce surface ocean production (Bopp et al., 2001; Steinacher et al., 2010) and hence the flux of particulate organic carbon (POC) from the surface to benthic communities.”
BackgroundKemp, A. E. S., Pearce, R., Grigorov, I., Rance, J., Lange, C. B., Quilty, P. G., & Salter, I. (2006) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2006gb002698 · Cited by 166
“, 1988] showed decreased carbon flux with increased stratification, a result corroborated using more sophisticated biological models including phytoplankton [Bopp et al., 2001].”
ResultFu, F., Mulholland, M. R., Garcia, N. S., Beck, A. J., Bernhardt, P. W., Warner, M. E., Sañudo‐Wilhelmy, S. A., & Hutchins, D. A. (2008) · Limnology and Oceanography · doi:10.4319/lo.2008.53.6.2472 · Cited by 161
Southern Ocean phytoplankton physiology in a changing climate
Petrou, K., Kranz, S. A., Trimborn, S., Hassler, C. S., Blanco‐Ameijeiras, S., Sackett, O., Ralph, P. J., & Davidson, A. T. (2016) · Journal of Plant Physiology · doi:10.1016/j.jplph.2016.05.004 · Cited by 178
“Increasing temperature is predicted to strengthen stratification and shallow the MLD, reducing the flux of nutrients to surface waters (Bopp et al., 2001; Boyd and Doney, 2002; Boyd et al., 2008; Lewandowska et al., 2014).”
BackgroundCabré, A., Marinov, I., & Leung, S. W. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2374-3 · Cited by 177
“2010) that includes 4 models as well as a recent study by Bopp et al. (2013) that includes 10 CMIP5 models.”
MethodFu, F., Zhang, Y., Warner, M. E., Feng, Y., Sun, J., & Hutchins, D. A. (2007) · Harmful Algae · doi:10.1016/j.hal.2007.05.006 · Cited by 148
“At the same time, over the next 50–100 years greenhouse warming will increase average sea surface temperatures by as much as 4–5 8C (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2002).”
BackgroundFrölicher, T. L., & Joos, F. (2010) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0727-0 · Cited by 143
“Marine ecosystems and their role in the carbon cycle are parametrized in a highly simplified way in the NCAR CSM1.4-carbon in comparison to some more sophisticated representations ( Bopp et al. 2001; Moore et al. 2002; Maier-Reimer et al. 2005; Manizza et al. 2008; Schmittner et al. 2008).”
BackgroundMethodEstimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century
Boyce, D. G., Dowd, M. G., Lewis, M. R., & Worm, B. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.01.004 · Cited by 147
“Although there is substantial variability among OGCM projections, 15 of 18 published estimates report declining marine Chl or primary production into the future (median time interval: 100 yr; time interval range: 10–2000 yr; Beaulieu et al., 2013; Bopp et al., 2001; Boyd and Doney, 2002; Cermeno et al., 2008; Cox et a…”
BackgroundCenozoic Planktonic Marine Diatom Diversity and Correlation to Climate Change
Lazarus, D., Barron, J. A., Renaudie, J., Diver, P., & Türke, A. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0084857 · Cited by 144
Long-term changes in temperate Australian coastal waters: implications for phytoplankton
THOMPSON, P. A., Baird, M. E., Ingleton, T., & Doblin, M. A. (2009) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps08297 · Cited by 129
“…to modelling studies, which predict a 5% decrease in global ocean productivity due to the reduced vertical transfer of nutrients (Cox et al. 2000, Bopp et al. 2001), the present study shows little evidence of increasing vertical stratification, except at PH50m where it was limited to April, May…”
BackgroundCarbon Export in the Ocean: A Biologist's Perspective
Iversen, M. H. (2022) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-035153 · Cited by 128
Carbon and Climate System Coupling on Timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene
Doney, S. C., & SCHIMEL, D. S. (2007) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.32.041706.124700 · Cited by 127
Vertical distribution and composition of phytoplankton under the influence of an upper mixed layer
Ryabov, A. B., Rudolf, L., & Blasius, B. (2009) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.10.034 · Cited by 121
“As some climate models predict higher water stratification with an increase of temperature (Bopp et al. 2001; Sarmiento et al. 2004), our findings may help to predict and understand future changes in phytoplankton patterns ongoing with global climate change.”
ResultDo marine phytoplankton follow B ergmann's rule sensu lato?
Sommer, U. J., Peter, K. H., Genitsaris, S., & Moustaka-Gouni, M. T. (2016) · Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · doi:10.1111/brv.12266 · Cited by 124
Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario
Lehodey, P., Senina, I. N., Sibert, J., Bopp, L., Calmettes, B., Hampton, J., & Murtugudde, R. G. (2010) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.04.021 · Cited by 127
“, warming, changes in cloudiness and mixed layer thickness, and increased vertical stratification, very likely will cause significant adjustments in the biology of the oceans (Denman et al., 1996; Cox et al., 2000; Bopp et al., 2001; Boyd and Doney, 2002).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMind the gap: The impact of missing data on the calculation of phytoplankton phenology metrics
Cole, H. S., Henson, S. A., Martin, A. P., & Yool, A. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2012jc008249 · Cited by 119
Early Life History and Fisheries Oceanography: New Questions in a Changing World
Institution, W. H. O., Llopiz, J. K., Cowen, R. K., Hauff, M., Ji, R., Munday, P. L., Muhling, B. A., Peck, M. A., Richardson, D., Sogard, S. M., et al. (2014) · Oceanography · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2014.84 · Cited by 119
Metadata
- Authors
- Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J., Le Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., & Orr, J. C.
- Venue
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2001-03
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 81-99
- ISSN
- 0886-6236 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-9224
- OpenAlex
- W1973095441
- Semantic Scholar
- 25569a9b12bdc21407f3e73f4cc6499d87b6d440
- Cited by
- 514
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 22 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 11.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hal.science
- Locations
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles (publishedVersion)
- HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) (submittedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine Plankton and Biogeochemistry
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, ocean primary productivity, ocean stratification, nutrient supply, light efficiency, upwelling, poleward shift, growing season, greenhouse gas increase, Southern Ocean, tropical oceans
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-16, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-16 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
