Cited by 149Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones ResearchClimate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations

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Increasing magnitude of hurricane rapid intensification in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

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Balaguru, Karthik, Foltz, Gregory R., Leung, L. Ruby·2018·Geophysical Research Letters

DOI 10.1029/2018gl077597

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Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30‐year satellite period of 1986–2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24‐hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large‐scale environment, has predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.

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Authors: Balaguru, K., Foltz, G. R., & Leung, L. R.
Affiliations: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (US)
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA
Corresponding author: Balaguru, Karthik
ORCID: Balaguru, Karthik
Foltz, Gregory R.
Leung, L. Ruby
Venue: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2018-05-03
Volume: 45
Issue: 9
Pages: 4238-4247
ISSN: 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl077597
OpenAlex: W2799590607
Cited by: 149
References: 61
Citations by year: 2026: 11 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 4
FWCI: 6.09
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
www.osti.gov
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am (am, 365 d)
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy
Battelle (DE-AC05-76RL01830)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, upper ocean warming, tropical western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, 2017 hurricane season

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Increasing magnitude of hurricane rapid intensification in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

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