Regression toward the mean and the study of change.
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The likelihood of regression to the mean increases as an individual becomes more extreme in a distribution of scores.
“In a sense, the likelihood of regression to the mean increases as an individual becomes more extreme in a distribution of scores (Nesselroade, Stigler, & Baltes, 1980).”
From Enrichment Effects on Adult Cognitive Development: Can the Functional Capacity of Older Adults Be Preserved and Enhanced? (2008) · cites this paper as Nesselroade, Stigler, & Baltes, 1980
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How we should measure "change": Or should we?
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- Authors
- Nesselroade, J. R., Stigler, S. M., & Baltes, P. B.
- Affiliations
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Venue
- Psychological Bulletin
- Published
- 1980-11
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 622-637
- ISSN
- 0033-2909 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1455
- OpenAlex
- W2102838347
- Cited by
- 241
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 8
- FWCI
- 4.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Bulletin (publishedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- regression to the mean, measurement error, repeated measures
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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