Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: the role of error in judgment processes
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Human decision makers tend to overestimate their certainty about choices based on truly ambiguous evidence.
“For example, human decision makers tend to overestimate their certainty about choices based on truly ambiguous evidence (Fischoff et al., 1982; Baranski and Petrusic, 1994; Erev et al., 1994; Drugowitsch et al., 2014; Kiani et al., 2014a)”
From A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence (2016) · cites this paper as Erev et al., 1994
Cites
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The trouble with overconfidence.
Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.115.2.502 · Cited by 2,358 · see citing works
Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability
Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.101.4.547 · Cited by 1,167 · see citing works
Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence.
Pleskac, T. J., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2010) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/a0019737 · Cited by 722 · see citing works
Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: evidence for a confidence heuristic
Price, P. C., & Stone, E. R. (2004) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.460 · Cited by 272 · see citing works
A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence
van den Berg, R., Anandalingam, K., Zylberberg, A., Kiani, R., Shadlen, M. N., & Wolpert, D. M. (2016) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.12192 · Cited by 270 · see citing works
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Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?
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Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments
Ais, J., Zylberberg, A., Barttfeld, P., & Sigman, M. (2016) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2015.10.006 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions
Budescu, D. V., Rantilla, A. K., Yu, H.-T., & Karelitz, T. M. (2003) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/s0749-5978(02)00516-2 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Self-citationStone, E. R., & Opel, R. B. (2000) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1006/obhd.2000.2910 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Relation between belief and performance in perceptual decision making
Drugowitsch, J., Moreno-Bote, R., & Pouget, A. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096511 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition
Moore, D. A., Swift, S. A., Minster, A., Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Tetlock, P., Yang, H. H. J., & Tenney, E. R. (2017) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2016.2525 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
A theory of learning to infer.
Dasgupta, I., Schulz, E., Tenenbaum, J. B., & Gershman, S. J. (2020) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000178 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration
Walters, D. J., Fernbach, P. M., Fox, C. R., & Sloman, S. A. (2017) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2016.2580 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Linda is not a bearded lady: configural weighting and adding as the cause of extension errors
Nilsson, H., Winman, A., Juslin, P., & Hansson, G. (2009) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/a0017351 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
- Authors
- Erev, I., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Venue
- Psychological Review
- Published
- 1994-07
- Volume
- 101
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 519-527
- ISSN
- 0033-295X (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1471
- OpenAlex
- W2043763623
- Cited by
- 644
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 31 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 24 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 21 · 2012: 48
- FWCI
- 8.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Review (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Keywords
- overconfidence, underconfidence, judgment errors, confidence judgments, metacognition, self-assessment
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