Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?
Abstract
Previous studies have revealed surprising and persistent cross-cultural variations in overconfidence, whereby respondents in some Asian cultures (e.g., Chinese) exhibit markedly higher degrees of overconfidence than respondents in other cultures (e.g., in the United States and Japan). Most of those demonstrations have entailed general knowledge tasks (e.g., answering questions such as whether Europe is larger than Australia). The present studies sought to determine whether such cross-cultural variations extend to judgments about the kinds of events that bear upon more common practical decisions and to aspects of accuracy other than overconfidence. Subjects in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States made probabilistic differential diagnoses of fictional diseases in a stochastic artificial ecology. Results revealed that previously observed cross-cultural variations do indeed generalize. The data were also informative about several potential accounts for such variations, e.g., arguing against a proposal that they rest on different emphases on discrimination rather than calibration, but consistent with the influences of culture-specific cognitive customs, including responsiveness to explicitly displayed information, regardless of its presumed validity. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.
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Differences between cultures in how these beliefs are acquired may account for findings of cultural differences in confidence and metacognition and in how people process self-related feedback.
“Differences between cultures in how these beliefs are acquired may account for findings of cultural differences in confidence and metacognition (van der Plas et al. 2022, Yates et al. 1998) and in how people process self-related feedback (Kitayama et al. 1997).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Yates et al. 1998
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Heuristics and Biases: The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences
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The Incidence of Overconfidence and Underconfidence Effects in Medical Student Examinations
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Metacognitive Education: Going beyond Critical Thinking
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Metacognitive Effort Regulation across Cultures
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Self-citationFacing global environmental change: The role of culturally embedded cognitive biases
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- Authors
- Yates, J. F., Lee, J.-W., Shinotsuka, H., Patalano, A. L., & Sieck, W. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- Hokkaido University (JP)
- Venue
- Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1998-05
- Volume
- 74
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 89-117
- ISSN
- 0749-5978 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2126070272
- Cited by
- 220
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 4.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Wesleyan University Digital Collections (Wesleyan University) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Wesleyan University Digital Collections (Wesleyan University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Cultural Differences and Values
- Keywords
- overconfidence, probability judgment, cross-cultural comparison, calibration, discrimination (statistics), differential diagnosis, artificial ecology, cultural cognition
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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