The DOI matches its Crossref record; 8 of the 8 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 2 of the 19 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Migration as adaptation
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
2 of 19 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Diminished soil quality in Kenya has led people to travel to diversify their income.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [4] Gray, C. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 421–430 (2011). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Discussion reports a strong association in Kenya between low soil quality and temporary labor migration, and suggests that households send migrants to generate additional income. The claim presents this suggested response as an established causal effect; the paper does not establish that diminished soil quality caused people to migrate. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In 2004-05, for example, temporary labour migration in households that were farming land with high-quality soils was 67% lower than in those using poor soils 4 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [4] Gray, C. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 421–430 (2011). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Results §5.1 (Kenya; page not provided) reports that the odds of temporary labor migration were 67% lower for households with high-quality soil. The citing sentence presents this as a 67% reduction in migration itself, rather than in its odds. Data Collection §3.1 also says the Kenyan surveys were conducted in 2004 and 2007, not 2004–05. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, in Uganda, a relatively settled country with high 'entry costs' for housing, schools and marriage, those who are wealthier are more able to relocate.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“In Bangladesh, for example, moving to cities has become a common coping strategy in the face of flooding.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [3] Penning-Rowsell, E., Sultana, S. & Thompson, P. Population Movement in Response to Climate Related Hazards in Bangladesh: The 'Last Resort' (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
In the paper
“Environmental factors will increasingly influence migration.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.
- Not matched
In the paper
“and may be exacerbated by maladaptive policies designed to prevent migration.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
In the paper
“The greatest risks will be borne by those who are unable or unwilling to re locate”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
In the paper
“In Dakar, Senegal, for example, 40% of those who moved there between 1998 and 2008 live in areas of high flood risk 8 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [8] World Bank World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change (World Bank, 2010). source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Migration may be the most effective way to allow people to diversify income and build resilience where environmental change threatens livelihoods.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
In the paper
“In rapidly growing megacities, such as Dhaka and Lagos, that are located in delta and coastal floodplain regions in Africa or Asia, hundreds of millions more people may be at risk of flooding by 2060 (see 'Urban coastal flood risk').”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites A. VAFEIDIS ET AL.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
- It may state two separate claims as one. 11
- Probably not a substantial claim. 2
In the paper
“In a 2008 study, 22% of households affected by tidal-surge floods, and 16% affected by riverbank erosion, moved to urban areas 3 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [3] Penning-Rowsell, E., Sultana, S. & Thompson, P. Population Movement in Response to Climate Related Hazards in Bangladesh: The 'Last Resort' (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“It contends that, although environmental change will alter an already complex pattern of human mobility, migration will offer opportunities as well as challenges.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“Our study suggests that the picture is not so one-sided.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
In the paper
“In Mali, emigration decreased during the severe droughts of 1983-85 alongside a rise in rural poverty 7 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [7] Findley, S. E. Int. Migr. Rev. 28, 539–553 (1994).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Migration is often expensive, and those most vulnerable to environmental change are usually poor.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Migrants stretch the capacity of existing infrastructure, especially in low-income countries, and new arrivals are frequently vulnerable.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In Africa, where the majority of international migrants stay within their subregion, such remittances to home communities quadrupled to nearly US$40 billion between 1990 and 2010, surpassing official development assistance since 2007 (ref.10).”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > A ROAD MAP FOR ACTION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [10] Ratha, D. et al. Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments (World Bank, 2011). source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Environmental change can increase the incentive to move, but it can also limit the capacity to do so.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In 2008, attacks against these migrants resulted in 65 deaths and the further displacement of 150,000 people 9 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [9] McGregor, J., Marazzi, L. & Mpofu, B. Conflict, Migration and the Environment: the Case of Zimbabwe (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, migrants may be socially excluded and so will need special attention.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > A ROAD MAP FOR ACTION
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“There may be confounding socio-political factors, such as in Somalia where armed conflict restricts movement 5 , or in New Orleans, Louisiana, where the evacuation plan for Hurricane Katrina assumed that everyone had access to a car 6 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [5] Kolmannskog, V. New Issues in Refugee Research Res. Pap. 180 (UNHCR, 2009); available at http://go.nature.com/pugh4r
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites [6] Cutter, S. The Katrina Exodus: Internal Displacements and Unequal Outcomes (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Impoverished people face a double set of risks.They are unable to move away from environmental threats, and their lack of capital makes them especially vulnerable to environmental changes.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > Additional information
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Political instability, poor governance, conflict and social pressures compound these problems.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.
“Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Future droughts will threaten food security.
“Future droughts will threaten food security”
The paper relies on this without support.
People migrate for complex reasons including economic improvement, joining family, escaping persecution, and removing themselves from environmental or other threats, often temporarily.
“People migrate for complex reasons: to improve incomes; to join family members; to escape persecution; and to remove themselves from environmental or other threats, often temporarily.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The drivers of migration are closely intertwined, so it makes little sense to consider any of them in isolation.
“Many factors influence whether a person or family will migrate.Their effects are closely intertwined, so it makes little sense to consider any of them in isolation.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“There is an increasing acknowledgment that the character of climate migration is strongly determined by contextual factors, such as the political or socioeconomic conditions in a region, which affect households' access to alternative in-situ adaptation options, resources to bear the costs of migration, and the existence of migration networks (Black et al., 2011).”
From Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature (2021) · cites this paper as Black et al., 2011
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Citations
Cites
Bank, W. (2010) · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5 · Cited by 932
Human Development Report 2009. Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and DevelopmentPreprint
Klugman, J. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · Cited by 804
Does Drought Increase Migration? A Study of Migration from Rural Mali during the 1983–1985 Drought
Findley, S. E. (1994) · International Migration Review · doi:10.1177/019791839402800306 · Cited by 344
Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Özden, Ç., Plaza, S., Shaw, W., & Shimeles, A. (2011) · Cited by 258
The ‘last resort’? Population movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh
Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Sultana, P., & Thompson, P. M. (2013) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.03.009 · Cited by 241
Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Ozden, C., Plaza, S., Shaw, W., & Shimeles, A. (2011) · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-8257-8 · Cited by 133
Soil quality and human migration in Kenya and Uganda
Gray, C. L. (2011) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.02.004 · Cited by 108
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Özden, Ç., Plaza, S., Shaw, W., & Shimeles, A. (2011) · World Bank Publications · Cited by 34
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
- Kolmannskog, V. New Issues in Refugee Research Res. Pap. 180 (UNHCR, 2009); available at http://go.nature.com/pugh4r
- Cutter, S. The Katrina Exodus: Internal Displacements and Unequal Outcomes (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
- Findley, S. E. Int. Migr. Rev. 28, 539–553 (1994).
- McGregor, J., Marazzi, L. & Mpofu, B. Conflict, Migration and the Environment: the Case of Zimbabwe (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., & Levermann, A. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222469111 · Cited by 1,461
“This process is expected to continue in the coming decades, but capturing this in global scenarios would be a major research undertaking as the drivers of migration and urbanization are complex and variable (28).”
BackgroundHydrogen Storage for Mobility: A Review
Rivard, E., Trudeau, M. L., & Zaghib, K. (2019) · Materials · doi:10.3390/ma12121973 · Cited by 1,008
The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise
Lovelock, C. E., Cahoon, D. R., Friess, D. A., Guntenspergen, G. R., Krauss, K. W., Reef, R., Rogers, K., Saunders, M. I., Sidik, F., Swales, A., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature15538 · Cited by 948
Global urban population exposure to extreme heat
Tuholske, C., Caylor, K., Funk, C., Verdin, A., Sweeney, S., Grace, K., Peterson, P., & Evans, T. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2024792118 · Cited by 772
Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
Gray, C. L., & Mueller, V. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1115944109 · Cited by 687
“As this view has spread to become a common element of discussions about climate change impacts (7, 8), it has increasingly diverged from scientific understandings of both migration and adaptive capacity.”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M., & Beddington, J. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Sussex (GB)
- Government of the United Kingdom (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Black, Richard
- Bennett, Stephen R. G.
- Thomas, Sandy M.
- Beddington, John R.
- ORCID
- Black, Richard
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2011-10-20
- Volume
- 478
- Issue
- 7370
- Pages
- 447-449
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2032266442
- Cited by
- 1,043
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 101 · 2025: 81 · 2024: 89 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 98 · 2021: 106 · 2020: 101 · 2019: 85 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 62 · 2016: 46 · 2015: 39 · 2014: 32 · 2013: 22 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 80.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- SOAS Research Online (SOAS University of London) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- human migration, environmental change, adaptation, mobility, climate change, coping strategies
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Disasters, Emigration and Immigration, Environment, Humans, Policy Making, Politics, Poverty, Risk, Socioeconomic Factors, Urban Population, Floods, Climate Change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-11, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-11 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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