The DOI matches its Crossref record; 8 of the 8 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 2 of the 19 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Migration as adaptation
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
2 of 19 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Diminished soil quality in Kenya has led people to travel to diversify their income.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [4] Gray, C. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 421–430 (2011). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Discussion reports a strong association in Kenya between low soil quality and temporary labor migration, and suggests that households send migrants to generate additional income. The claim presents this suggested response as an established causal effect; the paper does not establish that diminished soil quality caused people to migrate. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In 2004-05, for example, temporary labour migration in households that were farming land with high-quality soils was 67% lower than in those using poor soils 4 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [4] Gray, C. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 421–430 (2011). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Results §5.1 (Kenya; page not provided) reports that the odds of temporary labor migration were 67% lower for households with high-quality soil. The citing sentence presents this as a 67% reduction in migration itself, rather than in its odds. Data Collection §3.1 also says the Kenyan surveys were conducted in 2004 and 2007, not 2004–05. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, in Uganda, a relatively settled country with high 'entry costs' for housing, schools and marriage, those who are wealthier are more able to relocate.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“In Bangladesh, for example, moving to cities has become a common coping strategy in the face of flooding.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [3] Penning-Rowsell, E., Sultana, S. & Thompson, P. Population Movement in Response to Climate Related Hazards in Bangladesh: The 'Last Resort' (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
In the paper
“Environmental factors will increasingly influence migration.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.
- Not matched
In the paper
“and may be exacerbated by maladaptive policies designed to prevent migration.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
In the paper
“The greatest risks will be borne by those who are unable or unwilling to re locate”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
In the paper
“In Dakar, Senegal, for example, 40% of those who moved there between 1998 and 2008 live in areas of high flood risk 8 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [8] World Bank World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change (World Bank, 2010). source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Migration may be the most effective way to allow people to diversify income and build resilience where environmental change threatens livelihoods.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
In the paper
“In rapidly growing megacities, such as Dhaka and Lagos, that are located in delta and coastal floodplain regions in Africa or Asia, hundreds of millions more people may be at risk of flooding by 2060 (see 'Urban coastal flood risk').”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites A. VAFEIDIS ET AL.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
- It may state two separate claims as one. 11
- Probably not a substantial claim. 2
In the paper
“In a 2008 study, 22% of households affected by tidal-surge floods, and 16% affected by riverbank erosion, moved to urban areas 3 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [3] Penning-Rowsell, E., Sultana, S. & Thompson, P. Population Movement in Response to Climate Related Hazards in Bangladesh: The 'Last Resort' (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“It contends that, although environmental change will alter an already complex pattern of human mobility, migration will offer opportunities as well as challenges.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“Our study suggests that the picture is not so one-sided.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
In the paper
“In Mali, emigration decreased during the severe droughts of 1983-85 alongside a rise in rural poverty 7 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [7] Findley, S. E. Int. Migr. Rev. 28, 539–553 (1994).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Migration is often expensive, and those most vulnerable to environmental change are usually poor.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Migrants stretch the capacity of existing infrastructure, especially in low-income countries, and new arrivals are frequently vulnerable.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In Africa, where the majority of international migrants stay within their subregion, such remittances to home communities quadrupled to nearly US$40 billion between 1990 and 2010, surpassing official development assistance since 2007 (ref.10).”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > A ROAD MAP FOR ACTION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [10] Ratha, D. et al. Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments (World Bank, 2011). source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Environmental change can increase the incentive to move, but it can also limit the capacity to do so.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In 2008, attacks against these migrants resulted in 65 deaths and the further displacement of 150,000 people 9 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [9] McGregor, J., Marazzi, L. & Mpofu, B. Conflict, Migration and the Environment: the Case of Zimbabwe (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, migrants may be socially excluded and so will need special attention.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > A ROAD MAP FOR ACTION
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“There may be confounding socio-political factors, such as in Somalia where armed conflict restricts movement 5 , or in New Orleans, Louisiana, where the evacuation plan for Hurricane Katrina assumed that everyone had access to a car 6 .”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > THE REALITY OF MIGRATION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [5] Kolmannskog, V. New Issues in Refugee Research Res. Pap. 180 (UNHCR, 2009); available at http://go.nature.com/pugh4r
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites [6] Cutter, S. The Katrina Exodus: Internal Displacements and Unequal Outcomes (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Impoverished people face a double set of risks.They are unable to move away from environmental threats, and their lack of capital makes them especially vulnerable to environmental changes.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > Additional information
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Political instability, poor governance, conflict and social pressures compound these problems.”
§ Mobility can bring opportunities for coping with environmental change, say > INTERLINKED FACTORS
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.
“Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Future droughts will threaten food security.
“Future droughts will threaten food security”
The paper relies on this without support.
People migrate for complex reasons including economic improvement, joining family, escaping persecution, and removing themselves from environmental or other threats, often temporarily.
“People migrate for complex reasons: to improve incomes; to join family members; to escape persecution; and to remove themselves from environmental or other threats, often temporarily.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The drivers of migration are closely intertwined, so it makes little sense to consider any of them in isolation.
“Many factors influence whether a person or family will migrate.Their effects are closely intertwined, so it makes little sense to consider any of them in isolation.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“There is an increasing acknowledgment that the character of climate migration is strongly determined by contextual factors, such as the political or socioeconomic conditions in a region, which affect households' access to alternative in-situ adaptation options, resources to bear the costs of migration, and the existence of migration networks (Black et al., 2011).”
From Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature (2021) · cites this paper as Black et al., 2011
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Citations
Cites
Bank, W. (2010) · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5 · Cited by 932
Human Development Report 2009. Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and DevelopmentPreprint
Klugman, J. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · Cited by 804
Does Drought Increase Migration? A Study of Migration from Rural Mali during the 1983–1985 Drought
Findley, S. E. (1994) · International Migration Review · doi:10.1177/019791839402800306 · Cited by 344
Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Özden, Ç., Plaza, S., Shaw, W., & Shimeles, A. (2011) · Cited by 258
The ‘last resort’? Population movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh
Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Sultana, P., & Thompson, P. M. (2013) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.03.009 · Cited by 241
Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Ozden, C., Plaza, S., Shaw, W., & Shimeles, A. (2011) · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-8257-8 · Cited by 133
Soil quality and human migration in Kenya and Uganda
Gray, C. L. (2011) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.02.004 · Cited by 108
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Özden, Ç., Plaza, S., Shaw, W., & Shimeles, A. (2011) · World Bank Publications · Cited by 34
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
- Kolmannskog, V. New Issues in Refugee Research Res. Pap. 180 (UNHCR, 2009); available at http://go.nature.com/pugh4r
- Cutter, S. The Katrina Exodus: Internal Displacements and Unequal Outcomes (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
- Findley, S. E. Int. Migr. Rev. 28, 539–553 (1994).
- McGregor, J., Marazzi, L. & Mpofu, B. Conflict, Migration and the Environment: the Case of Zimbabwe (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., & Levermann, A. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222469111 · Cited by 1,461
“This process is expected to continue in the coming decades, but capturing this in global scenarios would be a major research undertaking as the drivers of migration and urbanization are complex and variable (28).”
BackgroundHydrogen Storage for Mobility: A Review
Rivard, E., Trudeau, M. L., & Zaghib, K. (2019) · Materials · doi:10.3390/ma12121973 · Cited by 1,008
The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise
Lovelock, C. E., Cahoon, D. R., Friess, D. A., Guntenspergen, G. R., Krauss, K. W., Reef, R., Rogers, K., Saunders, M. I., Sidik, F., Swales, A., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature15538 · Cited by 948
Global urban population exposure to extreme heat
Tuholske, C., Caylor, K., Funk, C., Verdin, A., Sweeney, S., Grace, K., Peterson, P., & Evans, T. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2024792118 · Cited by 772
Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
Gray, C. L., & Mueller, V. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1115944109 · Cited by 687
“As this view has spread to become a common element of discussions about climate change impacts (7, 8), it has increasingly diverged from scientific understandings of both migration and adaptive capacity.”
BackgroundMillions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States
Hauer, M. E., Evans, J., & Mishra, D. R. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2961 · Cited by 509
Lawrance, E. L., Thompson, R., Newberry Le Vay, J., Page, L., & Jennings, N. (2022) · International Review of Psychiatry · doi:10.1080/09540261.2022.2128725 · Cited by 500
Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change
Cattaneo, C., Beine, M., Fröhlich, C. J., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Mastrorillo, M., Millock, K., Piguet, E., & Schraven, B. (2019) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1093/reep/rez008 · Cited by 482
“At the same time, the causes of migration are highly contextual, depending on migration history and the dynamics of economic, political, demographic, social and environmental factors at the origin and destination (Black et al. 2011; Martin et al. 2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialSea-level rise and human migration
Hauer, M. E., Fussell, E., Mueller, V., Burkett, M., Call, M., Abel, K., McLeman, R. A., & Wrathall, D. J. (2019) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-019-0002-9 · Cited by 445
The impact of rural out-migration on land use transition in China: Past, present and trend
Chen, R., Ye, C., Cai, Y., Xing, X., & Chen, Q. (2014) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.10.003 · Cited by 430
Coastal climate change, soil salinity and human migration in Bangladesh
Chen, J., & Mueller, V. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0313-8 · Cited by 406
The Anthropocene and the Global Environmental Crisis
Stengers, I. (2015) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781315743424 · Cited by 384
A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration
Hoffmann, R., Dimitrova, A., Muttarak, R., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Peisker, J. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0898-6 · Cited by 362
Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S., Aich, V., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Fader, M., Hoff, H., Jobbins, G., Marcus, R., et al. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2 · Cited by 421
“Many people will be forced to move, while others trapped in poverty will be forced to stay (Black et al. 2011b).”
Warner, K., & Afifi, T. (2013) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2013.835707 · Cited by 328
Islam, M. M., Sallu, S., Hubacek, K., & Paavola, J. (2014) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0487-6 · Cited by 310
“These results resonate with research that has found that the most vulnerable households and communities are usually also poor (e.g. Paavola 2008; Black et al. 2011; Deressa et al. 2011).”
ResultClimate change, migration and violent conflict: vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies
Brzoska, M., & Fröhlich, C. (2016) · Migration and Development · doi:10.1080/21632324.2015.1022973 · Cited by 281
Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape
Hauer, M. E. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3271 · Cited by 291
Population development as a driver of coastal risk: Current trends and future pathways
Reimann, L., Vafeidis, A. T., & Honsel, L. E. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures · doi:10.1017/cft.2023.3 · Cited by 269
Piguet, É. (2012) · Annals of the Association of American Geographers · doi:10.1080/00045608.2012.696233 · Cited by 257
“The most recent and ambitious project in this vein is certainly the Foresight report (Foresight 2011; see also Black et al. 2011).”
BackgroundThe need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions
Conway, D., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, S. A., Tebboth, M. G. L., Adger, W. N., Ahmad, B., Biemans, H., Crick, F., Lutz, A., de Campos, R. S., et al. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0502-0 · Cited by 278
The study of slums as social and physical constructs: challenges and emerging research opportunities
Mahabir, R., Crooks, A. T., Croitoru, A., & Agouris, P. (2016) · Regional Studies Regional Science · doi:10.1080/21681376.2016.1229130 · Cited by 255
Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress
von Uexkull, N., & Buhaug, H. (2021) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343320984210 · Cited by 247
Thresholds in climate migration
McLeman, R. A. (2017) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-017-0290-2 · Cited by 246
Mental health effects of climate change
Padhy, S., Sarkar, S., Panigrahi, M., & Paul, S. (2015) · Indian Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine · doi:10.4103/0019-5278.156997 · Cited by 238
“[48] Previous mental health literature suggests that migration of individuals is related to acculturation stress, which is likely to act in the genesis of psychiatric disorders.”
Adapting to Grand Environmental Challenges Through Collective Entrepreneurship
Doh, J. P., Tashman, P., & Benischke, M. H. (2018) · Academy of Management Perspectives · doi:10.5465/amp.2017.0056 · Cited by 257
Exploring the climate change, migration and conflict nexus
Burrows, K., & Kinney, P. (2016) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph13040443 · Cited by 223
Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration
Gray, C., & Wise, E. K. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y · Cited by 223
“2014), and reverse effects can occur in which climate extremes trap vulnerable populations in place (Black et al. 2011; Gray and Mueller 2012a).”
BackgroundInfluentialHow can migration serve adaptation to climate change? Challenges to fleshing out a policy ideal
Gemenne, F., & Blocher, J. M. (2017) · Geographical Journal · doi:10.1111/geoj.12205 · Cited by 218
Methmann, C. P., & Oels, A. (2015) · Security Dialogue · doi:10.1177/0967010614552548 · Cited by 210
A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration
McMichael, C., Dasgupta, S., Ayeb‐Karlsson, S., & Kelman, I. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abb398 · Cited by 208
“Migration and relocation are ways for people to adapt to environmental and climatic changes (Black et al 2011,Murphy 2015), andmigration has been a way of responding to shifting coastlines throughout human history (Fiddian-Qasmiyeh et al 2016).”
BackgroundEnvironmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador
Gray, C., & Bilsborrow, R. E. (2013) · Demography · doi:10.1007/s13524-012-0192-y · Cited by 206
“…study indicates that both types of climate changes (fast and slow) are likely to influence human migration, although not necessarily in the expected directions; and in fact, it is possible that more potential migrants will be trapped in place than displaced by changing climates (Black et al. 2011).”
Ayeb‐Karlsson, S., van der Geest, K., Ahmed, I., Huq, S., & Warner, K. (2016) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-016-0379-z · Cited by 211
“In such instances, global policy frameworks should be able to protect and support vulnerable people in their decision to move (McNamara et al. 2015; Black et al. 2011a, 2013; Kniveton et al. 2012; Adger et al. 2003).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialMahabir, R., Croitoru, A., Crooks, A. T., Agouris, P., & Stefanidis, A. (2018) · Urban Science · doi:10.3390/urbansci2010008 · Cited by 195
“, conflict or war leading to mass land invasions [47]), the various actors involved (e.”
BackgroundClimate Change and Children’s Mental Health: A Developmental Perspective
Vergunst, F., & Berry, H. L. (2021) · Clinical Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/21677026211040787 · Cited by 236
Lu, X. B., Wrathall, D. J., Sundsøy, P., Nadiruzzaman, M., Wetter, E. W., Iqbal, A., Qureshi, T., Tatem, A. J., Canright, G., Engø‐Monsen, K., et al. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.002 · Cited by 194
“This finding is consistent with the “migration as adaptation” hypothesis (Black et al., 2011; McLeman and Smit, 2006), i.e. increasing out-migration may indicate decreasing opportunities in the area, which would negatively affect the probability that people from outside will migrate into the area.”
BackgroundResultSmallholder Agriculture and Climate Change
Cohn, A. S., Newton, P., Gil, J., Kuhl, L., Samberg, L., Ricciardi, V., Manly, J. R., & Northrop, S. A. W. (2017) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060946 · Cited by 220
Climate mobilities: migration, im/mobilities and mobility regimes in a changing climate
Boas, I., Wiegel, H., Farbotko, C., Warner, J. F., & Sheller, M. (2022) · Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies · doi:10.1080/1369183x.2022.2066264 · Cited by 201
The uneven geography of research on “environmental migration”
Piguet, É., Kaenzig, R., & Guélat, J. (2018) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-018-0296-4 · Cited by 187
“…currently debating new topics regarding environmental migration, including mobility as a coping strategy (Afifi et al. 2015; Bettini et al. 2016; Black et al. 2011; Feli and Castree 2012; Gemenne and Blocher 2017; Loebach 2016; Methmann and Oels 2015; Sakdapolrak et al. 2013; Scheffran et al.…”
BackgroundClimate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?
de Sherbinin, A. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0900-7 · Cited by 183
“There has been considerable policy interest in the impact of climate change on population dynamics, and particularly on migration (Black et al. 2011; de Sherbinin et al. 2011).”
BackgroundIs adaptation reducing vulnerability or redistributing it?
Atteridge, A., & Remling, E. (2017) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.500 · Cited by 212
Rockenbauch, T., & Sakdapolrak, P. (2017) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-09009-220110 · Cited by 195
Feeling the heat: Climate risks and the cost of sovereign borrowing
Beirne, J., Renzhi, N., & Volz, U. (2021) · International Review of Economics & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.iref.2021.06.019 · Cited by 180
Focus on environmental risks and migration: causes and consequences
Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Black, R., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. S. G. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/060201 · Cited by 178
“The principal drivers of migration outcomes are those of the scale, connectivity and openness of the economy in the regions of the world, along with the policy stance and governance of that economy, its labour markets and social tensions and conflict (see Black et al 2011a on the global drivers).”
BackgroundSelf-citationPutting trapped populations into place: climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia
Nawrotzki, R., & DeWaard, J. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1224-3 · Cited by 175
“…went beyond the important and increasingly well-documented phenomenon of “trapped populations,” comprised of those most vulnerable to climate change (Black et al. 2011b; Foresight 2011; Gray andMueller 2012b), to consider the characteristics of places that trap, or immobilize, populations in the…”
BackgroundInfluentialSinatra, G. M., & Lombardi, D. (2020) · Educational Psychologist · doi:10.1080/00461520.2020.1730181 · Cited by 198
Being(s) framed: The means and ends of framing environmental migrants
Ransan‐Cooper, H., Farbotko, C., McNamara, K. E., Thornton, F., & Chevalier, É. (2015) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.013 · Cited by 168
Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise
Kopp, R. E., Gilmore, E., Little, C. M., Lorenzo‐Trueba, J., Ramenzoni, V. C., & Sweet, W. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2018ef001145 · Cited by 175
“The significance of environmental or natural resources among the other factors in their decision may range from large to insignificant (Black et al., 2011).”
BackgroundMigration influenced by environmental change in Africa: a systematic review of empirical evidence
Borderon, M., Sakdapolrak, P., Muttarak, R., Kebede, E., Pagogna, R., & Sporer, E. (2019) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2019.41.18 · Cited by 161
Hoffmann, R., Šedová, B., & Vinke, K. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102367 · Cited by 159
“…migration is strongly determined by contextual factors, such as the political or socioeconomic conditions in a region, which affect households’ access to alternative in-situ adaptation options, resources to bear the costs of migration, and the existence of migration networks (Black et al., 2011).”
BackgroundToward a climate mobilities research agenda: Intersectionality, immobility, and policy responses
Cundill, G., Singh, C., Adger, W. N., de Campos, R. S., Vincent, K., Tebboth, M. G. L., & Maharjan, A. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102315 · Cited by 197
“It is therefore imperative that climate mobilities research moves beyond simple narratives of migration as an undesirable social trend to be managed, or as a symptom of vulnerability for communities (Black et al., 2011; Upadhyay et al., 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialVinke, K., Bergmann, J., Blocher, J., Upadhyay, H., & Hoffmann, R. (2020) · Migration Studies · doi:10.1093/migration/mnaa029 · Cited by 162
Rademacher‐Schulz, C., Schraven, B., & Mahama, E. S. (2013) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2013.830955 · Cited by 153
Climate change increases the risk of fisheries conflict
Mendenhall, E., Hendrix, C. S., Nyman, E., Roberts, P. M., Hoopes, J. R., Watson, J. R., Lam, V. W. Y., & Sumaila, U. R. (2020) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2020.103954 · Cited by 176
“Migration is understood to be an effective adaptation strategy for coping with climate change, and fishing and aquaculture livelihoods can serve as "pull" factors drawing migrants to new locations [71-72].”
BackgroundWilmsen, B., & Webber, M. J. (2014) · Geoforum · doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2014.10.016 · Cited by 147
Buchori, I., Pramitasari, A., Sugiri, A., Maryono, M., Basuki, Y., & Sejati, A. W. (2018) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.07.017 · Cited by 147
Laurice Jamero, M., Onuki, M., Esteban, M., Billones-Sensano, X. K., Tan, N., Nellas, A., Takagi, H., Thao, N. D., & Valenzuela, V. P. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3344 · Cited by 144
Islam, M. R. (2017) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-017-1563-y · Cited by 147
Neoliberalising Adaptation to Environmental Change: Foresight or Foreclosure?
Felli, R., & Castree, N. (2012) · Environment and Planning A Economy and Space · doi:10.1068/a44680 · Cited by 143
“Its lead authors have recently published a summary of the main conclusions in the leading scientific journal Nature (Black et al, 2011), and the report has already received extensive media coverage.”
BackgroundEvidence of Climate Change Coping and Adaptation Practices by Smallholder Farmers in Northern Ghana
Antwi‐Agyei, P., & Nyantakyi‐Frimpong, H. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su13031308 · Cited by 143
Coastal Migration due to 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise
Lincke, D., & Hinkel, J. (2021) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001965 · Cited by 145
The centrality of social ties to climate migration and mental health
Torres, J. M., & Casey, J. A. (2017) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4508-0 · Cited by 139
Mapping global variation in human mobility
Kraemer, M. U. G., Sadilek, A., Zhang, Q., Marchal, N., Tuli, G., Cohn, E. L., Hswen, Y., Perkins, T. A., Smith, D. L., Reiner, R. C., et al. (2020) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-020-0875-0 · Cited by 137
Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Smith, C. D., & Kniveton, D. (2018) · Ambio · doi:10.1007/s13280-017-1007-6 · Cited by 136
“…of a growing number of ‘environmental refugees’ (Myers 1997; Bogardi and Warner 2009) has been supplanted by a more sceptical common recognition that migration is driven by various factors, of which climate change impacts may be one (Kibreab 1997; Castles 2003; Black et al. 2011a; Foresight 2011).”
BackgroundMultidimensional analysis of global climate change: a review
Bandh, S. A., Shafi, S., Peerzada, M., Rehman, T., Bashir, S., Wani, S. A., & Dar, R. (2021) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-021-13139-7 · Cited by 154
Thorn, J., Thornton, T. F., & Helfgott, A. (2015) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.12.009 · Cited by 134
Albert, S., Bronen, R., Tooler, N., Leon, J. X., Yee, D., Ash, J., Boseto, D. T., & Grinham, A. R. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1256-8 · Cited by 135
“Rapid sea-level rise does not simply influence the bio-physical system but also has deep and complex interactions with cultural and socio-political factors (Black et al. 2011).”
BackgroundPoverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009325844.010 · Cited by 250
Keeping People in Place: Political Factors of (Im)mobility and Climate Change
Zickgraf, C. (2019) · Social Sciences · doi:10.3390/socsci8080228 · Cited by 148
“In doing so, the report, and its consequent publications, laid the foundation for targeted research into those people who do not move in contexts of environmental degradation (Black et al. 2011, 2013; Thiede and Brown 2013; Black and Collyer 2014).”
BackgroundEmerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa
Kniveton, D. R., Smith, C. D., & Black, R. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1447 · Cited by 130
Self-citationInternational migration and climate adaptation in an era of hardening borders
McLeman, R. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0634-2 · Cited by 126
Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Kniveton, D., & Cannon, T. (2020) · Palgrave Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-020-0443-2 · Cited by 129
Planning for Community Relocations Due to Climate Change in Fiji
McNamara, K. E., & Combes, H. J. D. (2015) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Science · doi:10.1007/s13753-015-0065-2 · Cited by 128
“For some researchers, migration is pitched as an adaptation response to the impacts of climate change (Black et al. 2011), while for others it is portrayed as a negative impact of climate change and a failure of in situ adaptation efforts (Felli and Castree 2012).”
BackgroundClimate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico
Nawrotzki, R., Hunter, L. M., Runfola, D. M., & Riosmena, F. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114023 · Cited by 130
“This diversification strategy may be useful in times of climate stress (Black et al 2011).”
Millock, K. E. (2015) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-100814-125031 · Cited by 128
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L., & Böhmelt, T. (2016) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0258-7 · Cited by 125
Securing blue wealth: The need for a special sustainable development goal for the ocean and coasts
Visbeck, M. H., Kronfeld-Goharani, U., Neumann, B., Rickels, W., Schmidt, J. O., van Doorn, E., Matz‐Lück, N., Ott, K., & Quaas, M. F. (2014) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2014.03.005 · Cited by 137
“Given that this affects all dimensions of human security, combined effects could induce long-term migration [36], [37], [38].”
BackgroundTemporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa
Mueller, V., Sheriff, G. D., Dou, X., & Gray, C. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104704 · Cited by 129
“If availability of these outside opportunities, rather than household income, is the binding constraint for the migration decision, then efforts to reduce migration costs to assist the “trapped populations” alluded to by Black et al. (2011) and Black and Collyer (2014), may have little impact.”
BackgroundBettini, G. (2014) · Critical Studies on Security · doi:10.1080/21624887.2014.909225 · Cited by 122
The complex decision-making of climate-induced relocation: adaptation and loss and damage
McNamara, K. E., Bronen, R., Fernando, N., & Klepp, S. (2016) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2016.1248886 · Cited by 116
Salinization in large river deltas: Drivers, impacts and socio-hydrological feedbacks
Rahman, M. M., Penny, G., Mondal, M. S., Zaman, M. H., Kryston, A., Salehin, M., Nahar, Q., Islam, M. S., Bolster, D., Tank, J. L., et al. (2019) · Water Security · doi:10.1016/j.wasec.2019.100024 · Cited by 120
Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration
Burzyński, M., Deuster, C., B, F. D. A., & de Mélo, J. (2019) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvab054 · Cited by 147
From climate migration to anthropocene mobilities: shifting the debate
Baldwin, A., Fröhlich, C., & Rothe, D. (2019) · Mobilities · doi:10.1080/17450101.2019.1620510 · Cited by 114
“…conceptual terrain, the ensuing discussion has evolved from one focused on millions of ‘climate refugees’ (Gemenne 2011; Piguet, Pecoud, and de Guchteneire 2011) into one in which migration is promoted as a possible adaptive response to climate change (McLeman and Smit 2006; Black et al. 2011a).”
BackgroundNawrotzki, R., & Bakhtsiyarava, M. (2016) · Population Space and Place · doi:10.1002/psp.2033 · Cited by 125
“Table 3 shows few significant climate coefficients, consistent with the notion that climate effects on international migration are usually indirect in nature and difficult to detect (Black et al., 2011a).”
InfluentialBettini, G., Nash, S. L., & Gioli, G. (2016) · Geographical Journal · doi:10.1111/geoj.12192 · Cited by 112
“The idea that migration can represent a legitimate adaptation strategy has gained ground (Black et al. 2011; Tacoli 2009; UK Government Office for Science 2011; Warner et al. 2012), witnessing a partial but important relocation of migration from the domains of security and humanitarian emergency management to that of…”
BackgroundInfluentialClimate change adaptation planning for Global South megacities: the case of Dhaka
Araos, M., Ford, J. D., Berrang‐Ford, L., Biesbroek, R. G., & Moser, S. (2016) · Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning · doi:10.1080/1523908x.2016.1264873 · Cited by 114
Untapped potential of health impact assessment
Winkler, M. S., Krieger, G. R., Divall, M. J., Cissé, G., Wielga, M., Singer, B. H., Tanner, M., & Utzinger, J. (2013) · Bulletin of the World Health Organization · doi:10.2471/blt.12.112318 · Cited by 110
Sea-Level Rise Impacts and Responses: A Global Perspective
Brown, S. A., Nicholls, R. J., Woodroffe, C. D., et al. (2012) · Coastal research library · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_5 · Cited by 109
Trapped or Voluntary? Non-Migration Despite Climate Risks
Mallick, B., & Schanze, J. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12114718 · Cited by 107
International migration and health: it is time to go beyond conventional theoretical frameworks
Hossin, M. Z. (2020) · BMJ Global Health · doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2019-001938 · Cited by 119
The impact of climate change on the labor allocation: Empirical evidence from China
Huang, K., Zhao, H., Huang, J., Wang, J., & FINDLAY, C. C. (2020) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102376 · Cited by 108
“2 Climate change is more likely to damage climate-exposed sectors than sectors less vulnerable to high temperatures (Mendelsohn, 2008; Burke et al., 2015b; Dellink et al., 2017). The disproportionate damage created by climate change generates a gap in marginal returns to labor across sectors. As a result, individuals…”
BackgroundInfluentialSocioeconomic consequences of climate induced human displacement and migration in Bangladesh
Islam, M. R., & Shamsuddoha, M. (2017) · International Sociology · doi:10.1177/0268580917693173 · Cited by 104
On climate variability and civil war in Asia
Wischnath, G., & Buhaug, H. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1004-0 · Cited by 104
Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry
Semenza, J. C., & Ebi, K. L. (2019) · Journal of Travel Medicine · doi:10.1093/jtm/taz026 · Cited by 104
“They can also interact with climate change, which can itself be a trigger for migration (Figure 2).(20,21) Although environmental drivers do not appear to have been the most significant contributor to international migration to date,(22,23) migration in response to the consequences of climate change can be a pragmatic…”
BackgroundWhen the disaster strikes: Gendered (im)mobility in Bangladesh
Ayeb-Karlsson, S. (2020) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2020.100237 · Cited by 103
Fröhlich, C. (2016) · Contemporary Levant · doi:10.1080/20581831.2016.1149355 · Cited by 104
Béné, C., Frankenberger, T., & Nelson, S. (2018) · Human Rights Documents online · doi:10.1163/2210-7975_hrd-0148-2015183 · Cited by 104
“As documented in the literature (Black et al. 2011), migration can lead to positive changes but can – and does – also lead to negative outcomes.”
BackgroundIde, T. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0115-0 · Cited by 106
Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility
Benveniste, H., Oppenheimer, M., & Fleurbaey, M. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w · Cited by 115
Khavarian-Garmsir, A. R., Ahmad, P., Hataminejad, H., & Farhoodi, R. (2019) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2019.101480 · Cited by 101
Metadata
- Authors
- Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M., & Beddington, J. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Sussex (GB)
- Government of the United Kingdom (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Black, Richard
- Bennett, Stephen R. G.
- Thomas, Sandy M.
- Beddington, John R.
- ORCID
- Black, Richard
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2011-10-20
- Volume
- 478
- Issue
- 7370
- Pages
- 447-449
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2032266442
- Cited by
- 1,043
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 101 · 2025: 81 · 2024: 89 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 98 · 2021: 106 · 2020: 101 · 2019: 85 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 62 · 2016: 46 · 2015: 39 · 2014: 32 · 2013: 22 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 80.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- SOAS Research Online (SOAS University of London) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- human migration, environmental change, adaptation, mobility, climate change, coping strategies
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Disasters, Emigration and Immigration, Environment, Humans, Policy Making, Politics, Poverty, Risk, Socioeconomic Factors, Urban Population, Floods, Climate Change
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