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Reform predictive policing
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Police agencies, software firms and the public must ensure that crime-forecasting software improves public safety and officer accountability, writes Aaron Shapiro.
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“The technology's reliance on such lists to identify suspects or to target patrols 8 , combined with the lower accuracy of algorithms when analysing the faces of people of colour, is likely to reinforce over-policing of black and minority ethnic groups.”
From Rethink government with AI (2019) · cites this paper as [8]
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- Brayne, S., Rosenblat, A. & Boyd, D. in Data & Civil Rights: A New Era of Policing and Justice (2015); available at http://go.nature.com/2j6cot5
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“…in contrast to claims about objectivity made by technology vendors, predictive technology can reinforce bias in police work by creating hotspots which feature an overrepresentation of disadvantaged neighbourhoods with a large population of racial and ethnic minorities as residents (Shapiro 2017).”
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“Predictive policing has been controversial — as it aspires to prevent crime, it also raises questions of prejudice and precrime and effectively treating individuals and communities as guilty of (future) crimes for acts they have not yet committed and may never commit [21], [22].”
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“For example, public outcry has erupted over biased and harmful outcomes caused by recidivism prediction algorithms [1], predictive analytics for child welfare [17], and predictive policing [59].”
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“Successful applications can be found in tourism and predictive policing (Shapiro, 2017; Williams et al., 2019; Cheng and Chen, 2021).”
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“These methods are also useful to forecast the timing of officer patrols for detecting and deterring criminal activity [26].”
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“Similarly, predictive policing systems ( Gerber, 2014 ; Mohler et al., 2015 ; Shapiro, 2017 ) seek to improve police operations by allocating resources to areas of anticipated crimes in advance and waste management systems ( Castro Lundin, Ozkil & Schuldt-Jensen, 2017 ; Perera, Zaslavsky, Christen…”
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“…the macro level, the emergence of big data in policing has raised concerns about the “surveillance society” and the security and transparency issues associated with the collection and retention of big data by police and other state actors (Brayne, 2017; McGuire, 2021; Shapiro, 2017; Zuboff, 2019).”
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A literature review on police patrolling problems
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The effect of differential victim crime reporting on predictive policing systems
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“…is known to be potentially problematic in estimating crime patterns and guiding policy change (Ferguson, 2012, Chan & Bennet Moses, 2016; Shapiro, 2017; Williams, Burnap, & Sloan, 2017; Lavorgna, 2020); as computational criminology and cross-disciplinary approaches are becoming…”
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“Hence, the system makes use of geospatial modelling to generate risk profiles for locations (Shapiro 2017).”
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“2014) to approaches using machine learning or neural networks which fall in the scope of artificial intelligence (e.g. HunchLab, see Shapiro 2017).”
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Acceptance of Medical Treatment Regimens Provided by AI vs. Human
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“armored drones [1], predictive policing [2] and many more [3]).”
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“In doing so, HunchLab has mainly addressed the accessibility of predictive policing among police administrations by incorporating the predictive system into police patrols via a mobile app (Ferguson, 2017, 2020; Shapiro, 2017).”
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“Whereas some research has primarily focused on the technological aspects of implementing predictive policing (Meijer & Wessels, 2019), others have highlighted the social and political implications of predictive policing (Shapiro, 2017).”
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“Brantingham, working with other colleagues, repurposed algorithms used for predicting earthquake aftershocks to anticipate the location of crime ‘hot spots’ based on ‘near-repeat’ offenses and other behavioral criminology theories (Shapiro, 2017).”
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“For example, recent journalism and scholarship has discussed how predictive machine learning algorithms used in the criminal justice system can unfairly affect people of color [2,17].”
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Ich weiß, was du nächsten Sommer getan haben wirst
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“…incorporates weather patterns, transport schedules and school cycles into its algorithms to move beyond crime types that cluster in time and space (Shapiro 2017). all exercises in decision theory, it is shaped by two primary factors: (1) the decision problem is an ordering or prioritisation task,…”
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“After all, modern software is able to provide effective prognostic (preventive) activities of the police in cooperation with the public (Shapiro, 2017).”
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“With respect to reports, officers should be required to complete reports involving deadly force within days using the most sophisticated computer technology available (Shapiro 2017), and this data should be readily available for evaluation boards and public consumption.”
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“Although predictive policing has been reported to decrease local crime rates (predicting hotspots, in Goldsmith & Crawford 2014), such cause-and-effect relationship is difficult to prove (Shapiro 2017; Egbert & Leese 2021).”
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“While the “ Strategic Subject List ” program was terminated in 2019, most US police departments continue to use computerized statistics (CompStat) managerial programs that predict crimes based on past patterns — automatically perpetuating racialized persecution and discipline (Shapiro 2017).”
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“First, we believe these models will be useful in meeting the growing demand for transparency and perceived fairness in hotspot policing [24], [27].”
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Deep Learning and Intelligent Robots in Government
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Campedelli, G. M. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3508841 · Cited by 1
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Kapustin, M., Neumann, T., & Ludwig, J. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4065830 · Cited by 1
The robot in city hall: the limitations, structure, and governance of smart city technology regimes
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Metadata
- Authors
- Shapiro, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Corresponding author
- Shapiro, Aaron
- ORCID
- Shapiro, Aaron
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2017-01-26
- Volume
- 541
- Issue
- 7638
- Pages
- 458-460
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2578180596
- Cited by
- 118
- References
- 6
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 3
- FWCI
- 25.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Social Sciences › Law › Artificial Intelligence in Law
- Keywords
- predictive policing, algorithmic bias, police accountability, public safety, algorithmic transparency, police technology
- MeSH terms
- Machine Learning, Algorithms, Crime, Criminology, Evaluation Studies as Topic, Forecasting, Humans, Safety, Software, United States, Police, Law Enforcement, Criminals, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Geographic Mapping, Racism
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