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Cited by 16Crime Patterns and InterventionsPolicing Practices and PerceptionsCriminal Justice and Penology

Was the pope to blame? Statistical powerlessness and the predictive policing of micro‐scale randomized control trials

Taylor, Ralph B., Ratcliffe, Jerry H.·2020·Criminology & Public Policy
DOI 10.1111/1745-9133.12514
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Abstract

Research Summary Hinkle et al. (2013) highlighted a statistical powerlessness problem in hot‐spots policing experiments in midsized cities with moderate property crime rates. The current work demonstrates that this problem is less readily resolved than previously suspected. It reviews results from a predictive policing randomized control trial in a large city with property crime rates higher than Chicago or Los Angeles. It reports, for the first time, a graphical analysis indicating the marked car patrol intervention, practically effective at the 500′ by 500′ (mission) grid level, three grids per shift, likely had a district‐wide impact on reducing reported property crime. In addition, it reviews results of a series of thought experiments exploring statistical power impacts of four modified experimental designs. Only one alternative design, with spatially up‐scaled predictive policing mission areas and concomitantly higher property crime prevalence rates, produced acceptable statistical power levels. Implications follow for current theoretical confusion in community criminology about concentration effects and units of analysis, and how models organize impacts across those different units. Implications follow for practice amid ongoing concerns about whether predictive policing works and, if it did, how to gauge its impacts and social justice costs. Policy Implications The current work brings to the fore important questions beyond “does predictive policing work?” Can we design…

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  • Widening the scale of treatment areas may make patrol officers' activities less monotonous and reduce the likelihood of boundary violations, but it could also lead to net-widening effects and pose challenges to police legitimacy.

    “However, while widening the scale of treatment areas may make patrol officers' activities less monotonous and reduce the likelihood of boundary violations, it could also lead to net-widening effects and pose challenges to police legitimacy (Ratcliffe et al., 2021;Taylor & Ratcliffe, 2020).”

    From ‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing (2024) · cites this paper as Taylor & Ratcliffe, 2020

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Authors
Taylor, R. B., & Ratcliffe, J. H.
Affiliations
Temple University (US)
Corresponding author
Taylor, Ralph B.
ORCID
Venue
Criminology & Public Policy
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2020-07-27
Volume
19
Issue
3
Pages
965-996
ISSN
  • 1538-6473 (ISSN-L)
  • 1745-9133
DOI
10.1111/1745-9133.12514
OpenAlex
W3044472787
Cited by
16
References
83
Citations by year
2025: 4 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 2
FWCI
3.34
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations
Criminology & Public Policy (publishedVersion)
Funders
National Institute of Justice (2014‐R2‐CX‐0002)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
  • Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
Keywords
predictive policing, statistical power, randomized controlled trials, property crime, hot spot policing, unit of analysis, concentration effects, social justice, experimental design, crime prevention effectiveness

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