The DOI matches its Crossref record; 21 of the 23 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Advances in development reverse fertility declines
Abstract
During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positi…
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“With some evidence pointing to a reversal of fertility decline at high levels of development (Goldstein et al. 2009, Myrskylä et al. 2009, Fox et al. 2019), other work shows more inconsistent patterns (e.g., Myrskylä et al. 2013, Lesthaeghe 2020).”
From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Myrskylä et al. 2009
In the citing paper
“Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009) show that declines in fertility tend to reverse as countries become highly developed”
From Division of domestic labour and lowest-low fertility in South Korea (2017) · cites this paper as Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009)
In the citing paper
“however, Korea is one of the exceptions in their study: Despite achieving high levels of development, it has yet to experience a rebound in fertility rates.”
From Division of domestic labour and lowest-low fertility in South Korea (2017) · cites this paper as Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009)
In the citing paper
“The authors suggest that gender inequality and the difficulty of combining work and family are plausible explanations for this anomaly.”
From Division of domestic labour and lowest-low fertility in South Korea (2017) · cites this paper as Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009)
Citations
Cites
(2001) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 27,577
The United Nations Development Programme
Oestreich, J. E. (2017) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190637347.003.0003 · Cited by 4,875
The coming acceleration of global population ageing
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06516 · Cited by 1,489
The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s
Kohler, H., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00641.x · Cited by 1,451
Self-citationGender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition
McDonald, P. (2000) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00427.x · Cited by 1,154
Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions
Bongaarts, J., & WATKINS, S. C. (1996) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.2307/2137804 · Cited by 1,027
The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change
Lee, R. D. (2003) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/089533003772034943 · Cited by 1,025
Fertility and Women's Employment in Industrialized Nations
Brewster, K. L., & Rindfuss, R. R. (2000) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.271 · Cited by 902
On the quantum and tempo of fertility
Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (1998) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.2307/2807974 · Cited by 684
The end of world population growth
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (2001) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35087589 · Cited by 643
Flagged first, then by citations
2 of the 23 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Suzuki, T. Lowest-low fertility in Korea and Japan. J. Popul. Probl. 59, 1–16 (2003)
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 601–700 of 775
The myth of the Epoch of Malthusian StagnationPreprint
Nielsen, R. W. (2013) · arXiv (Cornell University)
European Recession and the Emerging Two-Speed Europe
Campiglio, L. (2017) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-47864-7_3
Jackson, A. E. (2011) · Australian Veterinary Journal · doi:10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00784.x
Intergenerational Aspirations, Capital Dilution, and the Dynamics of InequalityPreprint
Tarbush, B., & Dennig, F. (2016) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2732248
What Determined the Fertility Rebound? The Empirical Evidence for 17 High-Income CountriesPreprint
Lechman, E., & Dominiak, P. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2600206
Chang, H.-C. (2018) · XIX ISA World Congress of Sociology (July 15-21, 2018)
The baby boom: new perspectives and new issues. A research initiative
Reher, D., Requena, M., Gimeno, A., & Sánchez-Domínguez, M. (2012)
Anticonceptie voor de eenentwintigste eeuw
Verhaeghe, J. (2018) · Bohn Stafleu van Loghum eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-90-368-1111-8_11
Dynamics Of Female Fertility In Indonesia, Thailand And The Philippines, 1980-2014
Omar, S. N. S. S., Subramaniam, T., Majid, M., & Loganathan, N. (2018) · Journal of Southeast Asian Studies · doi:10.22452/jati.sp2018no1.4
Bibliography of Finnish Population Studies
Helamaa, T. (2010) · DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)
Laspa, C. (2019) · Journal of Economics and Public Finance · doi:10.22158/jepf.v5n2p227
Effect of Virechan Karma in the management of Oligoasthenozoospermia (Shukradushti): A Case Report
Tare, A. L. (2019) · National Journal of Research in Ayurved Science · doi:10.52482/ayurlog.v7i03.346
Global development features of demographic reproduction in light of theory of stages
Ďurček, P., & Bleha, B. (2016) · Geografie · doi:10.37040/geografie2016121010121
The Child Deficit and the Changing Value of Children in Asia
Morrison, P. S. (2020) · New frontiers in regional science: Asian perspectives · doi:10.1007/978-981-10-0230-4_14
Family Policy's Mechanisms for Affecting Fertility Intentions
이다윤 (2020) · Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University)
Are countries achieving the Millennium Development Goals
Permanyer, I. (2013) · Papers de demografia
Data driven mathematical models for policy making
Nannyonga, B. (2011) · KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology)
Dynamics in the number of population in the priority geostrategic territories of Russia in 2010-2018
Patsiorkovsky, V. V., Simagin, Y. A., & Джавидовна, М. Д. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.8
Social and pedagogical factors of the gender gap in the natural science school education
Васильевна, Ш. Л. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.30
The role of the Russian biggest agglomerations in shaping the population quality of life
Ноздрина, Н. Н., & Schneiderman, I. M. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.7
Poverty of pensioners: the conditions for its reduction
Pension Fund of the Russian Federation, M., & Soloviev, A. K. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.41
Does the system of additional professional education meet the demands of medical workers?
Kolennikova, O. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.17
Labor migration and the problems of its regulation in modern Russia
Семенович, К. Е. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.10
Main methodological approaches to forecasting the quality of the Russian population
Morgunov, E. V. (2020) · Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population, Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.1
Self-education as a factor of professional development
Grib, D. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.14
Assessment of the staffing needs of the capital’s healthcare system
Kroshilin, S., & Медведева, Е. Ю. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.15
Bogatyreva, T. G., Yamalova, N. Y., & Advertising agency ES Media, M. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.49
Employment in small business in the crisis situation
Popova, R., & Токсанбаева, М. С. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.33
Attitude of Belarusians to the insurance system: research results
Яковлева, Н. И. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.44
Boldyrev, A. S. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.23
Career paths of medical workers: what affects the level of their professionalism?
Аникин, И. В., & Vinogradova, K. V. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.16
Trends in the development of internet-banking in Russia
Lokosov, E. V. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.21
Typology of Russian cities by demographic indicators
Вениаминовна, Б. Е., & Lagutin, M. B. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.2
The historic institutions determining the social potential of Russia
Yudina, T. N., & Yakovets, T. Y. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.13
Sex-age structure of people with disabilities in the regions of the European part of Russia
Нацун, Л. Н. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.24
About the fate of the Russian civilization
Amosov, A. I. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.6
Amendments to the Constitution: is this a return to the social state, or its further dismantling?
Александрова, О. А. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.45
Prospects for youth entrepreneurship: gender differences
Vinokurova, N. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.29
Аликперова, Н. В. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.37
Trends in mortality and life expectancy of population in the Northern regions of Russia
Popova, L. A. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.5
Do young people need a guaranteed retirement plan?
МАРКОВ, Д. И. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.39
Women of the Great Victory. To the 75th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War
Dobrokhleb, V. G. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.50
Patient’s complaint – what reaction does a doctor expect from the management?
Аликперова, Н. В., & Vinogradova, K. V. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.19
Yarasheva, A. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.43
Migration movement of population and labor force as a factor of the labor market development
Коровкин, А. Г., Королев, И. Б., & CEMI RAS, M. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.9
Labor migration and labor market
Герасимова, И. В. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.11
Kalabikhina, I. E. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.47
Attitude of young people to their health and the ways to maintain it
Kim, M. A., & Popovich, A. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.27
Prerequisites for evolution of fertility and reproductive behavior: world and Russian experience
Руднева, О. С., & Sokolov, A. A. (2020) · Народонаселение · doi:10.19181/population.2020.23.4.13
Effect of Productive Age on the Real Estate Market
Poláček, T., Oulehla, J., & Luňáček, J. (2020) · Trends Economics and Management · doi:10.13164/trends.2020.36.49
Social Interactions and Modern Economic GrowthPreprint
Mejía, J. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3252204
Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility
Schmertmann, C. P., Zagheni, E., Goldstein, J. R., & Myrskylä, M. (2012) · doi:10.4054/mpidr-wp-2012-003
Self-citationA Basic Model of Take-Off and Fertility Choices in the Economic Development Process
(2013) · Palgrave Macmillan eBooks · doi:10.1057/9780230392496.0008
How Women Affect Firms’ Outcomes
Profeta, P. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108525886.006
Sasiwongsaroj, K., Husa, K., & Wohlschlägl, H. (2020) · Global studies · doi:10.14361/9783839451717-009
Useful Methods to Identify the Relationship between Gender and Public Policy
Profeta, P. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108525886.009
Merchant, E. K. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197558942.003.0006
Detonating the Population Bomb
Merchant, E. K. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197558942.003.0007
Merchant, E. K. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197558942.003.0002
On the Socio-Economic Impacts of the Difference Between Healthy and Sick Aging
Caleiro, A. (2021) · Advances in human services and public health (AHSPH) book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-7998-7327-3.ch012
Comparative policy perspectives of happiness and parenthood
Sironi, M., Aassve, A., & Mencarini, L. (2012) · Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione 2013
Do rich parents enjoy children less?
RAPALLINI, C. (2017) · Florence Research (University of Florence)
Generational differences in income trajectories in the Nordic welfare statePreprint
Karonen, E., Lehti, H., Erola, J., Kuivalainen, S., & Moisio, P. (2022) · SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/edxju
Alam, M. M., Murad, M. W., Molla, R. I., Rahman, K. M., & Khondaker, T. R. (2022) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/5cqbm
Profeta, P. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108525886.002
Profeta, P. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108525886.003
Profeta, P. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108525886.008
(2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108525886.010
Profeta, P. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108525886.001
Túlnépesedő világ?! : A fertilitási ráták elemzése
Drabancz, Á. (2021) · Polgári szemle · doi:10.24307/psz.2021.1230
Cosio-Zavala, M. E. (2022) · doi:10.1002/9781119902850.ch1
On the Socio-Economic Impacts of the Difference Between Healthy and Sick Aging
Caleiro, A. (2022) · IGI Global eBooks · doi:10.4018/978-1-6684-5295-0.ch091
Aitken, R. J. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108935593.003
Aitken, R. J. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108935593.004
Aitken, R. J. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108935593.002
Afzali, M., & Rostovskaya, T. K. (2022) · Socialʹnye i gumanitarnye znania · doi:10.18255/2412-6519-2022-1-70-85 · Cited by 1
Examination of maternal mortality in Subsaharan Africa
Okwan, F. (2021) · doi:10.14232/phd.11060
Demographic potential of the Republic of Karakalpakstan
Djumabaeva, S. K. (2020) · ISESP FCTAS RAS eBooks · doi:10.19181/konf.978-5-4465-2988-9.2020.3
Dynamics Of Female Fertility In Indonesia, Thailand And The Philippines, 1980-2014
Omar, S. N. S. S., Subramaniam, T., Majid, M., & Loganathan, N. (2018) · Journal of Southeast Asian Studies · doi:10.22452/jati.sp2018.no1.4
Morgan, S. P. (2013) · doi:10.1093/obo/9780199756384-0150
Profeta, P. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108525886.011
OECD (2012) · doi:10.1787/9789264169982-ko
Fertility, Child Care Outside the Home and Pay-as-You-Go Social Security
Yakita, A. (2017) · Population economics · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-47644-5_4
Kinderwunsch und Geburtenentwicklung in der Bevölkerungssoziologie
Huinink, J. J. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-04255-4_11-1
Merchant, E. K. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197558942.003.0001
Merchant, E. K. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197558942.003.0008
Dynamics Of Female Fertility In Indonesia, Thailand And The Philippines, 1980-2014
Omar, S. N. S. S., Subramaniam, T., Majid, M., & Loganathan, N. (2018) · Journal of Southeast Asian Studies · doi:10.22452/jati.sp2018vol1no1.4
Sodhi, N. S., & Lee, T. M. (2010) · Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature · doi:10.3410/f.5719966.5700066
Merchant, E. K. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197558942.003.0003
Kugler, T. (2016) · doi:10.1093/obo/9780199743292-0154
Merchant, E. K. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197558942.003.0004
Alam, M. M., Murad, M. W., Molla, R. I., Rahman, K. M., & Khondaker, T. R. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3595664
The human ecology of climate change
Cowie, J. (2012) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139087735.008
Yue, H., He, C., Huang, Q., Shi, P., Moallemi, E. A., & Bryan, B. A. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3946991
Demographic Change: Disparities, Divergences, and Drivers
Bank, W. (2015) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0669-8_ch4
Does Higher Education Lead to Fewer Children? Evidence from China
Yu, H., & Zhao, X. (2022) · Advances in economics, business and management research/Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research · doi:10.2991/aebmr.k.220405.047
Transição demográfica no Brasil e suas implicações socioeconômicas
Moura, B. O., Pires, M. D. M., de Aguiar, P. C. B., & Gomes, A. D. S. (2022) · doi:10.7476/9786586213829.0004
Metadata
- Authors
- Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., & Billari, F. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Bocconi University (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Kohler, Hans-Peter
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2009-08
- Volume
- 460
- Issue
- 7256
- Pages
- 741-743
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2061303011
- Cited by
- 782
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 105 · 2019: 38 · 2018: 39 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 54 · 2015: 58 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 44 · 2012: 46
- FWCI
- 104.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- United Nations Development Programme
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- fertility decline, fertility reversal, Human Development Index, economic development, population aging, total fertility rate, below-replacement fertility, population decline, population growth, immigration, demographic transition
- MeSH terms
- Birth Rate, Cross-Sectional Studies, Education, Female, Fertility, Humans, Income, Life Expectancy, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Maternal Age, Population Growth, Technology, Age Distribution, Developed Countries, Reproductive Behavior, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
