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Advances in development reverse fertility declines

Myrskylä, Mikko, Kohler, Hans-Peter, Billari, Francesco C.·2009·Nature

DOI 10.1038/nature08230

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Abstract

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positi…

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Authors: Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., & Billari, F. C.
Affiliations: University of Pennsylvania (US)
Bocconi University (IT)
Corresponding author: Kohler, Hans-Peter
ORCID: Myrskylä, Mikko
Kohler, Hans-Peter
Billari, Francesco C.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2009-08
Volume: 460
Issue: 7256
Pages: 741-743
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature08230
OpenAlex: W2061303011
Cited by: 782
References: 23
Citations by year: 2026: 30 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 105 · 2019: 38 · 2018: 39 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 54 · 2015: 58 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 44 · 2012: 46
FWCI: 104.47
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion)
Funders: United Nations Development Programme
Topics: Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Keywords: fertility decline, fertility reversal, Human Development Index, economic development, population aging, total fertility rate, below-replacement fertility, population decline, population growth, immigration, demographic transition
MeSH terms: Birth Rate, Cross-Sectional Studies, Education, Female, Fertility, Humans, Income, Life Expectancy, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Maternal Age, Population Growth, Technology, Age Distribution, Developed Countries, Reproductive Behavior, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century

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Advances in development reverse fertility declines

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