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Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years

Ballantyne, A. P., Alden, C. B., Miller, J. B., Tans, P. P., White, J. W. C.·2012·Nature

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Abstract

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions.

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Authors: Ballantyne, A. P., Alden, C. B., Miller, J. B., Tans, P. P., & White, J. W. C.
Affiliations: University of Colorado Boulder (US)
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Corresponding author: Ballantyne, A. P.
ORCID: Ballantyne, A. P.
Alden, C. B.
Miller, J. B.
Tans, P. P.
White, J. W. C.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2012-08
Volume: 488
Issue: 7409
Pages: 70-72
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature11299
OpenAlex: W2001507362
Cited by: 784
References: 29
Citations by year: 2026: 28 · 2025: 53 · 2024: 57 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 78 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 49 · 2018: 52 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 52 · 2015: 42 · 2014: 53 · 2013: 49 · 2012: 5
FWCI: 39.62
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine Plankton and Biogeochemistry
Keywords: terrestrial carbon sink, ocean carbon sink, carbon cycle, anthropogenic CO2 emissions, carbon-climate feedback, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, atmospheric CO2 observations, emission inventory, ocean acidification, ocean deoxygenation, ocean warming, ocean heat content
MeSH terms: Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Oceans and Seas, Seawater, Time Factors, Uncertainty, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Climate Change, Carbon Sequestration

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Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years

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