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The global distribution and burden of dengue
Open accessAbstract
Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.
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“An estimated 70% of dengue virus infections are thought to occur in Asia. (2)”
From Epidemiology of dengue reported in the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region, 2013–2019 (2023) · cites this paper as [2]
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“As a result of differences in case definitions and other factors, there is likely to be underreporting and, thus, an underestimation of the true regional burden in terms of the number of cases, CFRs and incidence. (1, 2)”
From Epidemiology of dengue reported in the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region, 2013–2019 (2023) · cites this paper as [2]
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“Sharing information and data about dengue helps countries and areas better understand transmission patterns and supports the implementation of dengue prevention and control measures. (2)”
From Epidemiology of dengue reported in the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region, 2013–2019 (2023) · cites this paper as [2]
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“Mosquito-transmitted viral diseases, including dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), Japanese encephalitis (JEV), West Nile (WNV), yellow fever (YFV), and Zika (ZIKV), are a serious public health problem, causing millions of infections per year [1-3].”
Broad dengue neutralization in mosquitoes expressing an engineered antibody
Buchman, A. B., Gamez, S., Li, M., Antoshechkin, I. A., Li, H.-H., Wang, H., Chen, C., Klein, M. J., Duchemin, J., Crowe, J. E., et al. (2020) · PLoS Pathogens · doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1008103 · Cited by 95
“Global incidences of DENV and its associated economic burden have increased dramatically in recent years [5,6], with over 50% of the world’s population now at risk of infection[7] and 390 million documented infections per year[6] for an estimated $40 billion in economic losses annually[8,9].”
Gastrointestinal symptoms, pathophysiology, and treatment in COVID-19
Zhang, J., Garrett, S., & Sun, J. (2020) · Genes & Diseases · doi:10.1016/j.gendis.2020.08.013 · Cited by 100
“Additionally, more clinical studies of Remdesivir are ongoing.(112,113) Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) is a protease inhibitor and used for treating HIV-1 infection.”
Dzul-Manzanilla, F., Morales, F. C., Che‐Mendoza, A., Palacio-Vargas, J., Sánchez-Tejeda, G., González-Roldán, J. F., López‐Gatell, H., Flores, A. E., Gómez‐Dantés, H., Coelho, G. E., et al. (2021) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00030-9 · Cited by 95
Medeiros‐Sousa, A. R., Fernandes, A., Ceretti-Júnior, W., Wilke, A. B. B., & Marrelli, M. T. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-18208-x · Cited by 99
“The patches were classified as: (1) vegetation (forest, shrubs and undergrowth), (2) water bodies (rivers, ponds and streams) or (3) urban (bare ground, paved surfaces, roads and built-up areas).”
Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries
Imai, N., Dorigatti, I., Cauchemez, S., & Ferguson, N. M. (2015) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003719 · Cited by 94
Dowd, K. A., Mukherjee, S., Kuhn, R. J., & Pierson, T. C. (2014) · Journal of Virology · doi:10.1128/jvi.01140-14 · Cited by 94
Whitehorn, J., Kien, D. T. H., Nguyen, N. M., Nguyen, H. L., Kyrylos, P., Carrington, L. B., Tran, C. N., Quyen, N. T. H., Vo, L. T., Thi, D. L., et al. (2015) · The Journal of Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/infdis/jiv173 · Cited by 95
Self-citationImmune correlates of protection for dengue: State of the art and research agenda
Katzelnick, L. C., Harris, E., Baric, R. S., Coller, B.-A., Coloma, J., Crowe, J. E., Cummings, D. A. T., Dean, H. J., de Silva, A., Diamond, M. S., et al. (2017) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.07.045 · Cited by 95
“The four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4) cause approximately 400 million infections annually [1] ranging from asymptomatic infection to severe disease manifested by vascular leak, hemorrhagic manifestations, and shock [2].”
Self-citationBadawi, A. F., Velummailum, R., Ryoo, S. G., Senthinathan, A., Yaghoubi, S., Vasileva, D., Ostermeier, E., Plishka, M., Soosaipillai, M., & Arora, P. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0200200 · Cited by 100
“It is estimated that there are over 390 million DENV infections per year, of which 96 million manifests clinically with varying degrees of severity [6] and 3.”
Glycoprotein Hormone Receptor Knockdown Leads to Reduced Reproductive Success in Male Aedes aegypti
Rocco, D. A., Garcia, A. S. G., Scudeler, E. L., dos Santos, D. C., Nóbrega, R. H., & Paluzzi, J.-P. V. (2019) · Frontiers in Physiology · doi:10.3389/fphys.2019.00266 · Cited by 94
Martínez-Moreno, J., Hernández, J. C., & Inchima, S. U. (2019) · Molecular and Cellular Biochemistry · doi:10.1007/s11010-019-03658-w · Cited by 94
Dengue Virus Infection and Associated Risk Factors in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Mwanyika, G., Mboera, L. E. G., Rugarabamu, S., Ngingo, B. L., Sindato, C., Lutwama, J. J., Paweska, J. T., & Misinzo, G. (2021) · Viruses · doi:10.3390/v13040536 · Cited by 94
Facchinelli, L., Badolo, A., & McCall, P. J. (2023) · Viruses · doi:10.3390/v15030636 · Cited by 107
Allonso, D., Andrade, I. D. S., Conde, J. N., Coelho, D. R., Rocha, D., da Silva, M. L., Ventura, G. T., Silva, E. M., & Mohana‐Borges, R. (2015) · Journal of Virology · doi:10.1128/jvi.01342-15 · Cited by 94
Qi, Y., Li, Y., Zhang, Y., Zhang, L., Wang, Z., Zhang, X., Gui, L., & Huang, J. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0132743 · Cited by 94
Andriessen, R., Snetselaar, J., Suer, R. A., Osinga, A. J., Deschietere, J., Lyimo, I. N., Mnyone, L. L., Brooke, B. D., Ranson, H., Knols, B. G. J., et al. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1510801112 · Cited by 86
Dengue immunoassay with an LSPR fiber optic sensor
Camara, A. R., Gouvêa, P. M. P., Dias, A. C. M. S., Braga, A. M. B., Dutra, R. F., de Araújo, R. E., & Carvalho, I. C. S. (2013) · Optics Express · doi:10.1364/oe.21.027023 · Cited by 93
Tay, M. Y. F., Smith, K., Ng, I. H. W., Chan, K. W. K., Zhao, Y., Ooi, E. E., Lescar, J., Luo, D., Jans, D. A., Forwood, J. K., et al. (2016) · PLoS Pathogens · doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1005886 · Cited by 93
“Nearly half of the world’s population is thought to be at risk of dengue infection and ~100 million symptomatic dengue cases are reported each year [1, 2].”
Fagnani, E., & Guimarães, J. R. (2017) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.01.080 · Cited by 93
Dengue in Araraquara, state of São Paulo: epidemiology, climate and Aedes aegypti infestation
Ferreira, A. C., Neto, F. C., & Mondini, A. (2018) · Revista de Saúde Pública · doi:10.11606/s1518-8787.2018052000414 · Cited by 94
Wilke, A. B. B., Vasquez, C., Carvajal, A., Moreno, M., Fuller, D. O., Cardenas, G. A., Petrie, W. D., & Beier, J. C. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-02061-0 · Cited by 93
Shifting Patterns of Aedes aegypti Fine Scale Spatial Clustering in Iquitos, Peru
LaCon, G., Morrison, A. C., Astete, H., Stoddard, S. T., Paz‐Soldán, V. A., Elder, J. P., Halsey, E. S., Scott, T. W., Kitron, U. D., & Vazquez‐Prokopec, G. M. (2014) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003038 · Cited by 93
Self-citationAnimal models for studying dengue pathogenesis and therapy
Chan, K. W. K., Watanabe, S., Kavishna, R., Alonso, S., & Vasudevan, S. G. (2015) · Antiviral Research · doi:10.1016/j.antiviral.2015.08.013 · Cited by 91
Assessing the epidemiological effect of wolbachia for dengue control
Lambrechts, L., Ferguson, N. M., Harris, E., Holmes, E. C., McGraw, E. A., O’Neill, S. L., Ooi, E. E., Ritchie, S. A., Ryan, P. A., Scott, T. W., et al. (2015) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(15)00091-2 · Cited by 93
Self-citationConstenla, D. O., Garcia, C., & Lefcourt, N. (2015) · PharmacoEconomics · doi:10.1007/s40273-015-0294-7 · Cited by 92
Murray, K. O., Rodriguez, L. F., Herrington, E. R., Kharat, V., Vasilakis, N., Walker, C., Turner, C., Khuwaja, S. A., Arafat, R. R., Weaver, S. C., et al. (2013) · Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases · doi:10.1089/vbz.2013.1413 · Cited by 92
Near-Atomic Resolution Cryo-Electron Microscopic Structure of Dengue Serotype 4 Virus
Kostyuchenko, V. A., Chew, P. L., Ng, T., & Lok, S. (2013) · Journal of Virology · doi:10.1128/jvi.02641-13 · Cited by 92
Effect of blood type on anti-α-Gal immunity and the incidence of infectious diseases
Cabezas‐Cruz, A., Mateos‐Hernández, L., Alberdi, P., Villar, M., Riveau, G. J., Hermann, E., Schacht, A., Khalife, J., Correia‐Neves, M., Gortázar, C., et al. (2017) · Experimental & Molecular Medicine · doi:10.1038/emm.2016.164 · Cited by 92
Distribution of Usutu Virus in Germany and Its Effect on Breeding Bird Populations
Lühken, R., Jöst, H., Cadar, D., Thomas, S. M., Bosch, S., Tannich, E., Becker, N., Ziegler, U., Lachmann, L., & Schmidt‐Chanasit, J. (2017) · Emerging infectious diseases · doi:10.3201/eid2312.171257 · Cited by 92
“The applied modeling approach was previously shown to be suitable to map the distribution of mosquitoborne viruses like dengue virus (35) or Zika virus (28).”
RNAi-based bioinsecticide for Aedes mosquito control
López, S., Guimarães‐Ribeiro, V., Rodriguez, J. V. G., Dorand, F. A. P. S., Salles, T. S., Sá-Guimarães, T. E., Alvarenga, E. S. L., Melo, A. C. A., Almeida, R. V., & Moreira, M. F. (2019) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-019-39666-5 · Cited by 92
Fonseca, V., Libin, P., Theys, K., Faria, N. R., Nunes, M. R. T., Restovic, M. I., Freire, M., Giovanetti, M., Cuypers, L., Nowé, A., et al. (2019) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007231 · Cited by 91
Nasar, S., Rashid, N., & Iftikhar, S. (2019) · Journal of Medical Virology · doi:10.1002/jmv.25646 · Cited by 92
Yen, P., & Failloux, A. (2020) · Pathogens · doi:10.3390/pathogens9050404 · Cited by 92
Challenges in Dengue Vaccines Development: Pre-existing Infections and Cross-Reactivity
Izmirly, A. M., Alturki, S. O., Alturki, S. O., Connors, J. R., & Haddad, E. K. (2020) · Frontiers in Immunology · doi:10.3389/fimmu.2020.01055 · Cited by 92
Large-scale multivariate forecasting models for Dengue - LSTM versus random forest regression
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A systematic review of dengue outbreak prediction models: Current scenario and future directions
Leung, X. Y., Islam, R. M., Adhami, M., Ilić, D., McDonald, L., Palawaththa, S., Diug, B. O., Munshi, S. U., & Karim, M. N. (2023) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010631 · Cited by 92
“Every year around 390 million people acquire the 46 infection, of which around 96 million develop clinical manifestations.(3) Although most infections are mild, 47 dengue shock syndrome and dengue haemorrhagic fever are severe forms of infections and can be fatal.”
Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Damtew, Y. T., Tong, M., Varghese, B., Anikeeva, O., Hansen, A., Dear, K., Zhang, Y., Morgan, G. G., Driscoll, T. G., Capon, T., et al. (2023) · EBioMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104582 · Cited by 81
Soundravally, R., Hoti, S. L., Patil, S. A., Cherupanakkal, C., Bobby, Z., Kadhiravan, T., Parameswaran, N., & Kumar, B. A. (2013) · International Journal of Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2013.09.022 · Cited by 92
Liang, C., Lee, Y. H., Thein, T.-L., Fang, J., Pang, J., Ooi, E. E., Leo, Y., Ong, C. N., & Tannenbaum, S. R. (2016) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004607 · Cited by 93
“Dengue is arguably the most important arboviral disease globally, with an estimated 390 million infections occurring yearly, of which nearly 100 million are clinically apparent [1].”
Metadata
- Authors
- Bhatt, S., Gething, P. W., Brady, O. J., Messina, J. P., Farlow, A. W., Moyes, C. L., Drake, J. M., Brownstein, J. S., Hoen, A. G., Sankoh, O., Myers, M. F., George, D. B., Jaenisch, T., Wint, G. R. W., Simmons, C. P., Scott, T. W., Farrar, J. J., & Hay, S. I.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University of Georgia (US)
- Boston Children's Hospital (US)
- Dartmouth College (US)
- University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- University Hospital Heidelberg (DE)
- Churchill Hospital (GB)
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- Corresponding author
- Hay, Simon I.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2013-04
- Volume
- 496
- Issue
- 7446
- Pages
- 504-507
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- PMC
- PMC3651993
- OpenAlex
- W2131222241
- Cited by
- 10,037
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 615 · 2025: 704 · 2024: 830 · 2023: 846 · 2022: 816 · 2021: 943 · 2020: 946 · 2019: 922 · 2018: 777 · 2017: 724 · 2016: 744 · 2015: 551 · 2014: 467 · 2013: 141
- FWCI
- 650.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security
- Wellcome Trust (089276, 095066, 084368, 097318)
- European Commission (261504)
- National Institutes of Health (5r01ai069341-05)
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (1090403)
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (R01GM083224)
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01-AI069341, R01AI091980)
- Fogarty International Center
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Dengue and Mosquito Control Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- dengue, global burden of disease, dengue incidence, dengue risk mapping, Aedes, mosquito-borne viral disease, temperature and precipitation effects, urbanization, dengue prevention, dengue control, tropical and subtropical regions, dengue vaccine
- MeSH terms
- Dengue, Dengue Virus, Humans, Public Health, Quality Control, Rain, Risk Factors, Temperature, Tropical Climate, Urbanization, Global Health, World Health Organization, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Databases, Factual
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