Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots
Open accessAbstract
Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those 'vulnerable to poverty' from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income <$10/day, currently 4.2 billion people). We show that global exposure to multi-sector risks approximately doubles between 1.5 °C and 2 °C GMT change, doubles again with 3 °C GMT change and is ~6x between the best and worst cases (SSP1/1.5 °C vs SSP3/3 °C, 0.8–4.7bi). For populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world's poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.
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Under SSP2, by 2050 approximately 1,152 million people in dryland areas alone will be exposed to higher drought intensity and water stress at 2°C warming.
“Projections show that under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) SSP2 (a “middle of the road” scenario), by 2050 approximately 1,152 million people in dryland areas alone will be exposed to higher drought intensity and water stress at 2°C warming, whereas this number would be reduced to 974 million people under SSP1 (“sustainable” scenario) and increased to 1,267 million people in an SSP3 (“frag”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [70]
Section 2.1 describes projections for SSP2 in 2050 at 2°C warming, and Section 3.1 discusses drought intensity and water stress as separate indicators. The passages do not report that 1,152 million people in drylands are exposed to both; searches for that figure and dryland-specific exposure found no such estimate. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredHigher temperature increases result in higher projected numbers of people exposed to, and vulnerable to, water scarcity and droughts.
“Higher temperature increases result in higher projected numbers of people exposed to, and vulnerable to, water scarcity and droughts (70,71).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [70]
Section 3.3 reports that higher warming increases the projected numbers of people exposed to and vulnerable to multi-sector risks. Section 3.1 identifies water stress and drought intensity among the water-sector risks, but the cited passages do not establish that the projected numbers exposed to each of those specific hazards increase with temperature. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredUnder SSP1, by 2050 the number of people in dryland areas exposed to higher drought intensity and water stress at 2°C warming would be reduced to 974 million.
“Projections show that under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) SSP2 (a “middle of the road” scenario), by 2050 approximately 1,152 million people in dryland areas alone will be exposed to higher drought intensity and water stress at 2°C warming, whereas this number would be reduced to 974 million people under SSP1 (“sustainable” scenario) and increased to 1,267 million people in an SSP3 (“frag”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [70]
Section 3.3 discusses how exposure and vulnerability differ across SSP scenarios, and Section 3.1 discusses water stress and drought intensity. Neither gives a projection of 974 million people in dryland areas exposed to both hazards under SSP1 at 2°C. Searches for “974,” “drylands,” and the combined hazard description found no matching estimate in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredUnder SSP3, by 2050 the number of people in dryland areas exposed to higher drought intensity and water stress at 2°C warming would be increased to 1,267 million.
“Projections show that under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) SSP2 (a “middle of the road” scenario), by 2050 approximately 1,152 million people in dryland areas alone will be exposed to higher drought intensity and water stress at 2°C warming, whereas this number would be reduced to 974 million people under SSP1 (“sustainable” scenario) and increased to 1,267 million people in an SSP3 (“frag”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [70]
Section 3.1 discusses drought intensity and water stress, but does not give a population estimate for dryland areas; it also says arid areas were masked out for the drought-intensity indicator. Section 3.3 compares population exposure across SSPs and warming levels, but does not report 1,267 million people under SSP3 for this combination of hazards. Searches for the figure and for dryland exposure found no supporting passage in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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McCallum, I., Montzka, C., Bayat, B., Kollet, S. J., Колотій, А. В., Kussul, N., Лавренюк, М. С., Lehmann, A., Masó, J., Mazzetti, P., et al. (2019) · International Journal of Digital Earth · doi:10.1080/17538947.2019.1626921 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Byers, E., Gidden, M., Leclère, D., Balkovic, J., Burek, P., Ebi, K., Greve, P., Grey, D., Havlik, P., Hillers, A., Johnson, N., Kahil, T., Krey, V., Langan, S., Nakicenovic, N., Novak, R., Obersteiner, M., Pachauri, S., Palazzo, A., Parkinson, S., Rao, N. D., Rogelj, J., Satoh, Y., Wada, Y., Willaarts, B., & Riahi, K.
- Affiliations
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Washington (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Global Environment Facility (US)
- United Nations Industrial Development Organization (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Byers, Edward
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2018-05-01
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 055012
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2802086350
- Cited by
- 295
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 27 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 50 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 37.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Global Environment Facility (6993)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- climate change exposure, climate change vulnerability, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, global mean temperature change, poverty, water stress, drought severity, cooling demand, heat events, habitat degradation, crop yield, population projections, sustainable development, South Asia, Africa
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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