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A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
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“Climate change simulation studies predict drought and heat events to worsen over the century with the most severe changes expected to occur in the second half of the century.”
From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Challinor et al., 2014
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A transposon surveillance mechanism that safeguards plant male fertility during stress
Lee, Y., Maple, R., Dürr, J., Dawson, A., Tamim, S., del Genio, C. I., Papareddy, R. K., Luo, A., Lamb, J. C., Amantia, S., et al. (2021) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-020-00818-5 · Cited by 43
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“The literature suggests that climate change is likely to result in substantial productivity losses for various crops, and the pace of these losses is expected to increase with the passage of time (Challinor et al. 2014; Rosenzweig et al. 2014; Knox et al. 2012).”
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Ricroch, A., Harwood, W., Svobodová, Z., Sági, L., Hundleby, P., Badea, E. M., Roşca, I., Cruz, G., Fevereiro, P. S., Riera, V. M., et al. (2015) · Critical Reviews in Biotechnology · doi:10.3109/07388551.2015.1055707 · Cited by 45
“In addition, climate variability will exacerbate food insecurity (Challinor et al., 2014; Wheeler & von Braun, 2013) and could also affect harvest quality (e.”
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Mourtzinis, S., Ortiz, B. V., & Damianidis, D. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep29777 · Cited by 41
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“Adaptations in cropping systems and irrigation strategy are needed to secure food supply and increase resiliency to drought and changing climate (Challinor et al., 2014; Teixeira et al., 2013).”
BackgroundPereira, V. R., Blain, G. C., de Ávila, A. M. H., Pires, R. C. D. M., & Pinto, H. S. (2017) · Bragantia · doi:10.1590/1678-4499.2017007 · Cited by 41
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Wang, H., & Hijmans, R. J. (2019) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ab0856 · Cited by 41
“…change effects on crop yield is that agriculture is always adapting to environmental and social conditions through changes in crops, cultivars, planting dates, and othermeasures (Hijmans 2003,Olesen et al 2011, Kates et al 2012, Challinor et al 2014, Zhang et al 2015, Burke and Emerick 2016).”
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“The trend for more erratic rainfall in the next 50 years poses, however, a severe threat to maize production (Li et al., 2009; Challinor et al., 2014; Rosenzweig et al., 2014).”
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Ahmad, Q.-U.-A., Biemans, H., Moors, E. J., Shaheen, N., & Masih, I. (2020) · Water · doi:10.3390/w13010050 · Cited by 41
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Agriculture in a Changing Climate
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Food systems, nutrition, health and the environment
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“Positive benefits of adaptation are also predicted, offsetting expected declines in wheat, maize, and rice yield globally by 7–15% [92].”
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Powering and puzzling: climate change adaptation policies in Bangladesh and India
Stock, R., Vij, S., & Ishtiaque, A. (2020) · Environment Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-020-00676-3 · Cited by 45
“For example, uncertainty in the adaptation policy domain has not effectively been reduced, despite many commissioned research studies and projects implemented across the globe (Challinor et al. 2014).”
BackgroundSoil carbon insures arable crop production against increasing adverse weather due to climate change
Droste, N., May, W., Clough, Y., Börjesson, G., Brady, M., & Hedlund, K. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc5e3 · Cited by 42
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“Climate change poses challenges to agricultural systems and livelihoods (Alam et al., 2017; Challinor et al., 2014; Eshetu et al., 2016; Porter et al., 2014).”
BackgroundThe Harsh Environment and Resilient Plants: An Overview
Husen, A. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-65912-7_1 · Cited by 41
Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade
Bozzola, M., Lamonaca, E., & Santeramo, F. G. (2023) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110680 · Cited by 45
Towards strategic interventions for global food security in 2050
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“…Challinor et al. analysing data from over 1,700 models, demonstrate ‘a majority consensus that yield changes will be negative from the 2030s onwards’ (Challinor et al. 2014, 289), suggesting that meeting growing demand will be a huge political-economic and technical challenge, and that global food…”
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Tournebize, R., Borner, L., Manel, S., Meynard, C. N., Vigouroux, Y., Crouzillat, D., Fournier, C., Kassam, M., Descombes, P., Tranchant‐Dubreuil, C., et al. (2022) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16191 · Cited by 39
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“…we define agriculture, mining, construction and transportation as climate vulnerable sectors (Fleming, Kirby, and Ostdiek, 2006; Hsiang, 2010; and Challinor et al., 2014, Huang, Kerstein, and Wang, 2018), and estimate the baseline regression models on a subset of firms operating in these sectors.”
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“Crop productivity is expected to be affected by these changes (Kang et al., 2009; Lobell and Gourdji, 2012; Challinor et al., 2014).”
BackgroundTransformative and systemic climate change adaptations in mixed crop-livestock farming systems
Ghahramani, A., & Bowran, D. (2018) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2018.04.011 · Cited by 42
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“Increased evaporation of soil moisture and disruption of soil microbial activity are other adverse impacts of extreme temperatures on plant growth (Challinor et al., 2014; Derying et al., 2014; Bourne, 2015).”
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“As global warming continues, high temperatures are occurring more frequently, posing a threat to crop yields and agricultural sustainability [116].”
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“Climate change is expected to increase the exposure of agricultural ecosystems to extreme drought and rainfall events (IPCC, 2012; Fischer and Knutti, 2016), which can result in severe decreases in crop yields (Challinor et al., 2014; Obidiegwu et al., 2015; Challinor et al., 2016; Eurostats, 2016).”
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“Future vulnerabilities in fresh water supply are likely to be further aggravated by climate variability with droughts becoming more extensive [6,7].”
BackgroundResilience of smallholder cropping to climatic variability
Lamichhane, P., Miller, K. K., Hadjikakou, M., & Bryan, B. A. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137464 · Cited by 40
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Climate Extremes and Impacts on Agriculture
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Non-thermal plasmas for disease control and abiotic stress management in plants
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“Agricultural productivity is jeopardized by several stress factors coupled with climate change (Challinor et al. 2014; Zhao et al. 2017).”
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Genetic Research Progress: Heat Tolerance in Rice
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“Climate change has increased the frequency of heat damage events that affect crop yields [4,5].”
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Climate risk and corporate investment behavior in emerging economies
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Cropping system innovation for coping with climatic warming in China
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“The production of new crop varieties has been highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a critical intervention to mitigate the impacts of climate change (e.g., see Easterling et al., 2007; Tao and Zhang, 2010; Challinor et al., 2014; Noble et al., 2014)—therefore, to underpin global food…”
BackgroundAgricultural research spending must increase in light of future uncertainties
Cai, Y., Golub, A., & Hertel, T. W. (2017) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.06.002 · Cited by 36
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“15 18 Simply put, the existing germplasm will not be able to meet the expected demand for staple crops in 50 years.”
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Burchfield, E., & de la Poterie, A. T. (2018) · Journal of Rural Studies · doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.05.010 · Cited by 39
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“Moore et al (2017)ʼs function is a meta-analysis regression of a large database on crop yield changes compiled by Challinor et al (2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialAn empirical, Bayesian approach to modelling crop yield: Maize in USA
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“Previous research has explored the influence of a range of adaptation strategies (e.g. Challinor et al 2014, and references therein).”
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An autoregulatory negative feedback loop controls thermomorphogenesis in Arabidopsis
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Genomic-Mediated Breeding Strategies for Global Warming in Chickpeas (Cicer arietinum L.)
Jain, S. K., von Wettberg, E., Punia, S. S., Parihar, A. K., Lamichaney, A., Kumar, J., Gupta, D. S., Ahmad, S., Pant, N. C., DIXIT, G. P., et al. (2023) · Agriculture · doi:10.3390/agriculture13091721 · Cited by 37
Climate Change as an Agricultural Economics Research Topic
McCarl, B. A., & Hertel, T. W. (2017) · Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy · doi:10.1093/aepp/ppx052 · Cited by 40
“(2017) confirms this conjecture, revealing that virtually all adaptation benefits in the studies assembled by the IPCC under AR5 (Challinor et al. 2014) do not yield benefits that depend on changes in temperature or precipitation.”
BackgroundBareille, F., & Chakir, R. (2023) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/ajae.12420 · Cited by 36
Heat stress to jeopardize crop production in the US Corn Belt based on downscaled CMIP5 projections
Yang, M., & Wang, G. (2023) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103746 · Cited by 36
Franzluebbers, A. J., & Hendrickson, J. (2023) · Agronomy Journal · doi:10.1002/agj2.21520 · Cited by 38
Acquired Thermo‐Tolerance and Trans‐Generational Heat Stress Response at Flowering in Rice
Shi, W., Lawas, L. M. F., Raju, B. R., & Jagadish, S. V. K. (2015) · Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science · doi:10.1111/jac.12157 · Cited by 35
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“…expected to increasingly affect yields, and a statistical analysis of historical crop yield data indicates that it may already be doing so (Gornall et al., 2010; Wilby and Dessai, 2010; Elsgaard et al., 2012; Olesen et al., 2012; Challinor et al., 2014; Lobell et al., 2014; Potopová et al., 2016).”
BackgroundProjective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China
Zhang, Q., Zhang, W. J., Li, T., Sun, W., Yu, Y., & Wang, G. (2017) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-017-1322-4 · Cited by 37
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Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
Ruane, A. C., & Rosenzweig, C. E. (2018) · World Scientific series in grand public policy challenges of the 21st century · doi:10.1142/9789813278356_0005 · Cited by 35
“Agricultural vulnerabilities to climate change are quite robust across methods (Zhao et al., 2017), having also been identified in meta-analyses of crop model projections (Easterling et al., 2007; Challinor et al., 2014) as well as statistical model applications (Schlenker and Roberts, 2009).”
BackgroundWang, Y., & Xiang, P. (2018) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11010020 · Cited by 35
“CCA can be considered as an adjustment of natural and anthropogenic systems to actual or expected climate change factors and their effects to enhance human and socio-economic activities [48].”
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Akhtar, R., & Masud, M. M. (2022) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-021-18210-x · Cited by 37
“As a result, if temperate and tropical regions warm by 2 °C, aggregate production of wheat, rice, and maize is expected to fall (Challinor et al. 2014).”
BackgroundKhakimov, B., Rasmussen, M. A., Kannangara, R., Jespersen, B. M., Munck, L., & Engelsen, S. B. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-08129-0 · Cited by 35
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Hadasch, S., Laidig, F., Macholdt, J., Bönecke, E., & Piepho, H. P. (2020) · Field Crops Research · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2020.107792 · Cited by 33
Zheng, H., Ma, W., & Li, G. (2021) · Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d agroeconomie · doi:10.1111/cjag.12294 · Cited by 34
Do Cover Crops Increase Subsequent Crop Yield in Temperate Climates? A Meta-Analysis
Chahal, I., & Eerd, L. L. V. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15086517 · Cited by 34
Metadata
- Authors
- Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R., & Chhetri, N.
- Affiliations
- CGIAR (FR)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Stanford University (US)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Challinor, A. J.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2014-03-16
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 287-291
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2069466983
- Cited by
- 2,333
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 244 · 2025: 247 · 2024: 240 · 2023: 224 · 2022: 228 · 2021: 264 · 2020: 222 · 2019: 174 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 137 · 2016: 87 · 2015: 75 · 2014: 27
- FWCI
- 15.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/H003525/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- climate change impacts on agriculture, crop yield, climate change adaptation, wheat, rice, maize, warming, food security, yield variability, interannual variability
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