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A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
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“Climate change simulation studies predict drought and heat events to worsen over the century with the most severe changes expected to occur in the second half of the century.”
From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Challinor et al., 2014
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Corn yield response to winter cover crops: An updated meta-analysis
Marcillo, G. S., & Miguez, F. E. (2017) · Journal of Soil and Water Conservation · doi:10.2489/jswc.72.3.226 · Cited by 290
“For instance, in reviewing worldwide crop yield responses to climate change, Challinor et al. (2014) updated a previous meta-analysis (IPCC 2007) and introduced more robust methods to capture yield responses to warming conditions not detected before.”
Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990
Hochman, Z., Gobbett, D. L., & Horan, H. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13604 · Cited by 290
The fingerprints of climate warming on cereal crops phenology and adaptation options
Fatima, Z., Ahmed, M., Hussain, M., Abbas, G., Ul‐Allah, S., Ahmad, S., Ahmed, N., Ali, M. A., Sarwar, G., Haque, E. U., et al. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-74740-3 · Cited by 284
Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates
Howard, P. H., & Sterner, T. (2017) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-017-0166-z · Cited by 282
“, Challinor et al. (2014) analyze global agricultural production) and/or region (e.g., Houser et al. (2014) analyze U.S. climate damages). Some of these meta-analyses reveal complex relationships between climate-change and society, including Hsiang et al. (2013) who find that higher temperatures and more extreme rainf…”
BackgroundMethodTropical deforestation causes large reductions in observed precipitation
Smith, C., Baker, J. C. A., & Spracklen, D. V. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05690-1 · Cited by 301
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?
Frank, S., Havlík, P., Soussana, J., Levesque, A., Valin, H., Wollenberg, E. K., Kleinwechter, U., Fricko, O., Gusti, M. I., Herrero, M., et al. (2017) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8c83 · Cited by 304
Breeding for plant heat tolerance at vegetative and reproductive stages
Driedonks, N., Rieu, I., & Vriezen, W. H. (2016) · Plant Reproduction · doi:10.1007/s00497-016-0275-9 · Cited by 286
“Primarily due to a more negative effect of moderate warming on yield, worldwide yield reductions are now expected forwheat, rice andmaize in both tropical and temperate regions under a scenarioof2 Cof local warming without adaptation (Challinor et al. 2014).”
BackgroundFarooq, M. S., Uzair, M., Raza, A., Habib, M., Xu, Y., Yousuf, M. J., Yang, S. H., & Khan, M. R. (2022) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2022.927535 · Cited by 312
Aggarwal, P. K., Jarvis, A., Campbell, B., Zougmoré, R. B., Khatri‐Chhetri, A., Vermeulen, S. J., Loboguerrero, A. M., Sebastian, L. S., Kinyangi, J. M., Bonilla-Findji, O., et al. (2018) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-09844-230114 · Cited by 267
Scenarios for Global Aquaculture and Its Role in Human Nutrition
Gephart, J. A., Golden, C. D. W., Asche, F., Belton, B., Brugere, C., Froehlich, H. E., Fry, J. P., Halpern, B. S., Hicks, C. C., Jones, R. C., et al. (2020) · Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture · doi:10.1080/23308249.2020.1782342 · Cited by 294
“Climate change is already reshaping our food systems by redistributing crop and fishery potential (Challinor et al. 2014; Lam et al. 2016; Myers et al. 2017; FAO 2018b; Free et al. 2019) and through extreme event disturbances (Gephart, Duetsch, et al. 2017; Biela et al. 2019; Cottrell et al. 2019).”
BackgroundTimescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture
Rippke, U., Ramírez-Villegas, J., Jarvis, A., Vermeulen, S. J., Parker, L., Mer, F., Diekkrüger, B., Challinor, A. J., & Howden, M. S. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2947 · Cited by 285
Self-citationCrews, T. E., Carton, W., & Olsson, L. (2018) · Global Sustainability · doi:10.1017/sus.2018.11 · Cited by 268
“Majorstaplecropsincludingwheat,maizeandricewill bedamagedbyclimatechange[140 – 142].”
Abhinandan, K., Skori, L., Stanic, M., Hickerson, N. M. N., Jamshed, M., & Samuel, M. A. (2018) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2018.00734 · Cited by 252
“A meta-analysis of 1,700 published simulations (Challinor et al., 2014) predicted a significant yield loss in wheat in temperate and tropical regions with every 2C rise.”
BackgroundClimate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System
Brown, M. E., Antle, J. M., Backlund, P., Carr, E. R., Easterling, W. E., Walsh, M. K., Ammann, C. M., Attavanich, W., Barrett, C. B., Bellemare, M. F., et al. (2015) · doi:10.7930/j0862dc7 · Cited by 269
“The findings of a large number of such crop model simulation studies is summarized in a recent meta-analysis that utilized over 1,700 studies of climate impacts on crop yields (Challinor et al. 2014) and in the latest assessment report of the IPCC (Porter et al.”
BackgroundEffect of environmental changes on vegetable and legume yields and nutritional quality
Scheelbeek, P., Bird, F. A., Tuomisto, H. L., Green, R., Harris, F., Joy, E. J. M., Chalabi, Z., Allen, E., Haines, A., & Dangour, A. D. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1800442115 · Cited by 250
Do agricultural activities induce carbon emissions? The BRICS experience
Balsalobre‐Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Bekun, F. V., & Osundina, O. A. (2019) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-019-05737-3 · Cited by 249
Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change
King, M., Altdorff, D., Li, P., Galagedara, L., Holden, J., & Unc, A. (2018) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-018-26321-8 · Cited by 269
Genomic mechanisms of climate adaptation in polyploid bioenergy switchgrass
Lovell, J. T., MacQueen, A., Mamidi, S., Bonnette, J. E., Jenkins, J. W., Napier, J. D., Sreedasyam, A., Healey, A. L., Session, A. M., Shu, S., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-03127-1 · Cited by 249
Climate-smart pest management: building resilience of farms and landscapes to changing pest threats
Heeb, L., Jenner, E., & Cock, M. J. W. (2019) · Journal of Pest Science · doi:10.1007/s10340-019-01083-y · Cited by 245
Farmer’s intended and actual adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies
Niles, M. T., Brown, M., & Dynes, R. A. (2015) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1558-0 · Cited by 242
“2014) as well as its potential to be heavily affected by changing temperatures, water availability and extreme events make it an important focus for climate change action (Challinor et al. 2014).”
BackgroundThe Use of Panel Models in Assessments of Climate Impacts on Agriculture
Blanc, É., & Schlenker, W. (2017) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1093/reep/rex016 · Cited by 242
“As pointed out by Deaton (1985), the spatial fixed effects will absorb more of the former, thereby amplifying the problem of the latter.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialImran, M. A., Ali, A., Ashfaq, M., Hassan, S., Culas, R., & Ma, C. (2018) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su10062101 · Cited by 227
Sustainable food systems—a health perspective
Lindgren, E., Harris, F., Dangour, A. D., Gasparatos, A., Hiramatsu, M., Javadi, F., Loken, B., Murakami, T., Scheelbeek, P., & Haines, A. (2018) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-018-0586-x · Cited by 250
“There is general consensus that changes in rainfall and temperature will lead to significant reductions in the yields of staple crops (Challinor et al. 2014; Jerry et al. 2012; Lobell et al. 2011; Zhao et al. 2017).”
BackgroundDecline in climate resilience of European wheat
Kahiluoto, H., Kaseva, J., Bálek, J., Olesen, J. E., Ruiz‐Ramos, M., Gobin, A., Kersebaum, K. C., Takáč, J., Ruget, F., Ferrise, R., et al. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1804387115 · Cited by 236
“Reductions in wheat yield in global and temperate areas (4, 5) and an increase in yield variability are projected even with moderate warming (6).”
BackgroundBiotic and Abiotic Stress Responses in Crop Plants
Dresselhaus, T., & Hückelhoven, R. (2018) · Agronomy · doi:10.3390/agronomy8110267 · Cited by 217
A 1961–2010 record of fertilizer use, pesticide application and cereal yields: a review
Liu, Y., Pan, X., & Li, J. (2014) · Agronomy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1007/s13593-014-0259-9 · Cited by 227
“The losses of wheat and rice can be avoided through changing crop varieties, planting time, fertilizer use, and irrigation, whereas such methods have little benefit for maize yield (Challinor et al. 2014).”
BackgroundA Meta-Analysis of Biostimulant Yield Effectiveness in Field Trials
Li, J., Gerrewey, T. V., & Geelen, D. (2022) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2022.836702 · Cited by 237
“Open-field production systems are exposed to variations in climate conditions and, therefore, at risk of abiotic and biotic stresses and degradation of the soil conditions (drought, salinity, nutrient deficiency) (Challinor et al., 2014; Mickelbart et al., 2015).”
BackgroundMajor agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change
Ockenden, M. C., Hollaway, M. J., Beven, K. J., Collins, A. L., Evans, R., Falloon, P., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Kahana, R., Macleod, C. J. A., et al. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0 · Cited by 214
Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars
Rötter, R. P., Tao, F., Höhn, J. G., & Palosuo, T. (2015) · Journal of Experimental Botany · doi:10.1093/jxb/erv098 · Cited by 220
Teleconnected food supply shocks
d’Amour, C. B., Wenz, L., Kalkuhl, M., Steckel, J. C., & Creutzig, F. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007 · Cited by 230
“Models have advanced substantially in refined consideration of CO2 fertilizing effects as well as nonlinearities in heat stress (Schlenker and Roberts 2009, Schlenker et al 2013, Challinor et al 2014, Asseng et al 2015).”
Backgrounddel Pozo, A., Brunel, N., Engler, A., Ortega-Farias, S. O., Acevedo-Opazo, C., Lobos, G. A., Jara‐Rojas, R., & Molina‐Montenegro, M. A. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11102769 · Cited by 229
“There is evidence that the increase in temperatures associated with CC may reduce the yield and quality of crops [17,46,47].”
BackgroundUnpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields
Ortiz‐Bobea, A., Wang, H., Carrillo, C. M., & Ault, T. R. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab1e75 · Cited by 220
Metadata
- Authors
- Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R., & Chhetri, N.
- Affiliations
- CGIAR (FR)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Stanford University (US)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Challinor, A. J.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2014-03-16
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 287-291
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2069466983
- Cited by
- 2,333
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 244 · 2025: 247 · 2024: 240 · 2023: 224 · 2022: 228 · 2021: 264 · 2020: 222 · 2019: 174 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 137 · 2016: 87 · 2015: 75 · 2014: 27
- FWCI
- 15.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/H003525/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- climate change impacts on agriculture, crop yield, climate change adaptation, wheat, rice, maize, warming, food security, yield variability, interannual variability
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