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A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
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“Climate change simulation studies predict drought and heat events to worsen over the century with the most severe changes expected to occur in the second half of the century.”
From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Challinor et al., 2014
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“Quantifying the potential impacts of future climate change on the yield of major field crops for a specified location provides useful insights that can inform policy formulation, provide direction and help for prioritising research, reform crop management practices, and thus sustain agricultural production and reduce…”
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“A meta-analysis of crop yields for several crops under climate change conditions concluded that the interannual variability of mean yields is likely to increase and the consensus in the literature is that yield changes will be negative beginning in 2030 (Challinor et al., 2014).”
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“For these crops, recent climate warming has resulted in annual combined loss of about megatons (Mt) of products (Peng et al. 2004; Challinor et al. 2014).”
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“Challinor et al (2014) conducted a global meta-analysis on simulated climate change impacts on major cereals, which showed that yield declines can be expected for wheat with a temperature increase above 2 ◦C with steeper declines as temperature increases, although adaptation strategiesmay increase…”
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“In particular, a few studies concluded that current precipitation levels were optimal for most crops (Challinor et al., 2014) and future increases in the frequency and intensity of rainfall will be harmful to crops.”
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“Climate change is expected to reduce agricultural productivity and increase risks of crop failures without adaptation (Challinor et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2016; Rosenzweig et al., 2014; Zhao et al., 2017).”
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“5 ◦C would affect the rice production [53] and a local increase of 2 ◦C or above would impose significant impacts on rice production in both tropical and temperate countries [54].”
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“…its sustainable production is being faced with many challenges, including labor shortage (Shen et al., 2011), the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions such as CH4 (Zhang et al., 2016), and the competition for paddy land and water resources from non-agricultural sectors (Challinor et al., 2014).”
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“There is broad consensus that climate change represents a major threat to agricultural production and to food security (Alexandratos & Bruinsma, 2012; Challinor et al., 2014; Godfray et al., 2010; IPCC, 2014; Lobell et al., 2008; Wheeler & von Braun, 2013).”
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BackgroundTesting the responses of four wheat crop models to heat stress at anthesis and grain filling
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“Crop models are powerful tools for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production (Challinor et al., 2014).”
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“The trend of reduced production is projected to continue in the future [2].”
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“However, these impacts vary across space—although there is strong consensus for tropical yield losses, some temperate agricultural production systems are predicted to experience yield increases (82).”
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“…(when climate change causes lower productivity due to dryer conditions, and thus reduces agricultural output and diminishes land-use pressure, or synergistically (when increasing precipitation allows future improved agricultural conditions for some regions) (see Challinor et al., 2014).”
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The impact of climate change on barley yield in the Mediterranean basin
Cammarano, D., Ceccarelli, S., Grando, S., Romagosa, I., Benbelkacem, A., Akar, T., Al‐Yassin, A., Pecchioni, N., Francia, E., & Ronga, D. (2019) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2019.03.002 · Cited by 153
Unleashing expert judgment in assessment
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Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern
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“Bootstrap sampling is well adopted in statistical models linking climate and crop yields 1, 20, 35 .”
Exploiting ecosystem services in agriculture for increased food security
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The debate over sustainable intensification
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CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century
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““Climate smart” agricultural practices, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, can be adopted to minimize the harmful impacts of warming if accurate predictions of soil warming trends are available (Challinor et al., 2014).”
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Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption
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Assessment of agricultural emissions, climate change mitigation and adaptation practices in Ethiopia
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“…median precipitation by −2–20% by the end of the twenty-first century (Adhikari et al., 2015), causing an overall decrease in yields of staple crops (Challinor et al., 2014) through the shortening of the growing season length, the amplification of water stress and the increased incidence of…”
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“Therefore, projected global warming poses a serious threat to agricultural productivity, as each degree Celsius increase can lead up to 10% decrease in crop yields (1, 2).”
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Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
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“Temperature rising caused by global warming has imposed significant negative effects on crop yields and most likely the damage level will keep rising in future [1,2].”
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“As wheat is threatened by new pathogens, climate change and the scarcity of resources (Anwar et al. , 2007; Challinor et al. , 2014; Juroszek and von Tiedemann, 2013), a new injection of allelic variation may be needed to overcome current breeding plateaus (Ceccarelli et al. , 2010).”
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“Note that although most agricultural regions do not experience a TOE, as identified by the CMIP5 simulations, production is not evenly distributed among all regions, and these regions might still be affected by varying precipitation trends (10, 16).”
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“Interactive Impact of High Temperature and Elevated CO2 on Agronomic Efficiency: Yield and Yield Components High temperature with [eCO2] resulted in higher yield and yield components (Challinor et al., 2014).”
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Effect of Drought Stress on Crop Production
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Genome sequencing reveals evidence of adaptive variation in the genus Zea
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Spatial regulation of thermomorphogenesis by HY5 and PIF4 in Arabidopsis
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Metadata
- Authors
- Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R., & Chhetri, N.
- Affiliations
- CGIAR (FR)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Stanford University (US)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Challinor, A. J.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2014-03-16
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 287-291
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2069466983
- Cited by
- 2,333
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 244 · 2025: 247 · 2024: 240 · 2023: 224 · 2022: 228 · 2021: 264 · 2020: 222 · 2019: 174 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 137 · 2016: 87 · 2015: 75 · 2014: 27
- FWCI
- 15.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/H003525/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- climate change impacts on agriculture, crop yield, climate change adaptation, wheat, rice, maize, warming, food security, yield variability, interannual variability
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