The DOI matches its Crossref record; 55 of the 55 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave
Open accessAbstract
The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., & Kaplan, A. (2003) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2002jd002670 · Cited by 10,991
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Pan, H.-L., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Kistler, R., Woollen, J., Behringer, D., et al. (2010) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2010bams3001.1 · Cited by 5,136
Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature
Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S., & Schlax, M. G. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli1824.1 · Cited by 4,335
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Behringer, D., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H.-Y., Iredell, M., et al. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00823.1 · Cited by 3,354
A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves
Hobday, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Perkins, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., et al. (2016) · Progress in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014 · Cited by 2,377
Self-citationThe 27–year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes
De’ath, G., Fabricius, K. E., Sweatman, H., & Puotinen, M. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1208909109 · Cited by 1,883
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., & Allen, M. R. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03089 · Cited by 1,735
An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot
Wernberg, T., Smale, D. A., Tuya, F., Thomsen, M. S., Langlois, T. J., de Bettignies, T., Bennett, S., & Rousseaux, C. S. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1627 · Cited by 1,304
Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific
Bond, N. A., Cronin, M. F., Freeland, H., & Mantua, N. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl063306 · Cited by 1,204
Multivariate Density Estimation: Theory, Practice, and Visualization
Scott, D. W. (2015) · Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics · doi:10.1002/9781118575574 · Cited by 1,165
GARRABOU, J., COMA, R., BENSOUSSAN, N., BALLY, M., CHEVALDONNÉ, P., CIGLIANO, M., DIAZ, D., HARMELIN, J. G., GAMBI, M. C., KERSTING, D. K., et al. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01823.x · Cited by 1,049
The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C
Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Le Quéré, C., Marland, G., Raupach, M. R., & Wilson, C. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1783 · Cited by 959
Pacific western boundary currents and their roles in climate
Hu, D., Wu, L., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., Ganachaud, A., Qiu, B., Gordon, A. L., Lin, X., Chen, Z., Hu, S., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14504 · Cited by 712
Identification of global marine hotspots: sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation action
Hobday, A. J., & Pecl, G. T. (2014) · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries · doi:10.1007/s11160-013-9326-6 · Cited by 648
Self-citationDramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave
Christidis, N., Jones, G. S., & Stott, P. A. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2468 · Cited by 573
Long‐term trend and decadal variability of the southward penetration of the East Australian Current
Ridgway, K. R. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl030393 · Cited by 562
Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming
Lima, F. P., & Wethey, D. S. (2012) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms1713 · Cited by 549
Multivariate Density Estimation: Theory, Practice, and Visualization.
Weiss, R., & Scott, D. W. (1994) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2291242 · Cited by 495
A Global Oceanic Data Assimilation System
Derber, J., & Rosati, A. (1989) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1989)019<1333:agodas>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 489
Last, P. R., White, W. T., Gledhill, D. C., Hobday, A. J., Brown, R., Edgar, G. J., & Pecl, G. (2011) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00575.x · Cited by 488
Self-citationAllen, M. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/421891a · Cited by 478
The rise and fall of the “marine heat wave” off Western Australia during the summer of 2010/2011
Pearce, A. F., & Feng, M. (2013) · Journal of Marine Systems · doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.10.009 · Cited by 470
Willis, J. K., Roemmich, D., & Cornuelle, B. (2004) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1029/2003jc002260 · Cited by 412
An Intersection of Oceanic Waveguides: Variability in the Indonesian Throughflow Region
Wijffels, S., & Meyers, G. (2004) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<1232:aioowv>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 346
Gillanders, B. M., & Kingsford, M. J. (2002) · Oceanography and Marine Biology/Oceanography and marine biology - an annual review · doi:10.1201/9780203180594.ch5 · Cited by 319
Decadal Spinup of the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre
Roemmich, D., Gilson, J., Davis, R., Sutton, P., Wijffels, S., & Riser, S. (2007) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo3004.1 · Cited by 266
Field-aligned currents' scale analysis performed with the Swarm constellation
Lühr, H., Park, J., Gjerloev, J. W., Rauberg, J., Michaelis, I., Merayo, J. M. G., & Brauer, P. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2014gl062453 · Cited by 244
Caputi, N., Kangas, M., Denham, A., Feng, M., Pearce, A., Hetzel, Y., & Chandrapavan, A. (2016) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.2137 · Cited by 230
Chen, K., Gawarkiewicz, G. G., Lentz, S. J., & Bane, J. M. (2014) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1002/2013jc009393 · Cited by 215
Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013
Lewis, S. C., & Karoly, D. J. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50673 · Cited by 193
Olita, A., Sorgente, R., Natale, S., Gaberšek, S., Ribotti, A., Bonanno, A., & Patti, B. (2007) · Ocean Science · doi:10.5194/os-3-273-2007 · Cited by 177
Long‐term trends in the East Australian Current separation latitude and eddy driven transport
Cetina‐Heredia, P., Roughan, M., van Sebille, E., & Coleman, M. A. (2014) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1002/2014jc010071 · Cited by 163
Benthuysen, J. A., Feng, M., & Zhong, L. (2014) · Continental Shelf Research · doi:10.1016/j.csr.2014.09.014 · Cited by 159
Self-citationTowards a dynamically balanced eddy-resolving ocean reanalysis: BRAN3
Oke, P. R., Sakov, P., Cahill, M. L., Dunn, J. R., Fiedler, R., Griffin, D. A., Mansbridge, J. V., Ridgway, K. R., & Schiller, A. (2013) · Ocean Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.03.008 · Cited by 158
Harris, G. P., Nilsson, C., Clementson, L. A., & Thomas, D. (1987) · Marine and Freshwater Research · doi:10.1071/mf9870569 · Cited by 153
Chen, K., Gawarkiewicz, G. G., Kwon, Y., & Zhang, W. G. (2015) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1002/2014jc010547 · Cited by 138
Sparnocchia, S., Schiano, M. E., Picco, P., Bozzano, R., & Cappelletti, A. (2006) · Annales Geophysicae · doi:10.5194/angeo-24-443-2006 · Cited by 122
Firth, L. B., Knights, A. M., & Bell, S. S. (2011) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.007 · Cited by 117
Holbrook, N. J., Goodwin, I., McGregor, S., Molina, E., & Power, S. B. (2010) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2010.06.007 · Cited by 113
Self-citationInterannual variability in climate and fisheries in Tasmania
Harris, G. P., Davies, P., Núñez, M., & Meyers, G. A. (1988) · Nature · doi:10.1038/333754a0 · Cited by 111
Robinson, L. M., Gledhill, D. C., Moltschaniwskyj, N. A., Hobday, A. J., Frusher, S. D., Barrett, N. S., Stuart‐Smith, J., & Pecl, G. T. (2015) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.12.003 · Cited by 105
Self-citationGreen, T. J., Montagnani, C., Benkendorff, K., Robinson, N., & Speck, P. G. (2013) · Fish & Shellfish Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.fsi.2013.10.026 · Cited by 100
Gilroy, A., & Edwards, S. J. (1998) · Aquaculture Research · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2109.1998.00241.x · Cited by 84
Projected changes to Tasman Sea eddies in a future climate
Oliver, E. C. J., Okane, T., & Holbrook, N. J. (2015) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1002/2015jc010993 · Cited by 67
Self-citationAttribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences
King, A. D., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Karoly, D. J., Lewis, S. C., & Cullen, H. M. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002 · Cited by 67
Projected Tasman Sea Extremes in Sea Surface Temperature through the Twenty-First Century
Oliver, E. C. J., Wotherspoon, S. J., Chamberlain, M. A., & Holbrook, N. J. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00259.1 · Cited by 66
Self-citationDecadal Sea Level Variability in the South Pacific in a Global Eddy-Resolving Ocean Model Hindcast
Sasaki, Y. N., Minobe, S., Schneider, N., Kagimoto, T., Nonaka, M., & Sasaki, H. (2008) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/2007jpo3915.1 · Cited by 65
El Niño/La Niña shelf edge flow and Australian western rock lobsters
Clarke, A. J., & Li, J. (2004) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2003gl018900 · Cited by 41
Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications
Salinger, M. J., Hobday, A. J., Matear, R. J., Okane, T., Risbey, J. S., Dunstan, P. K., Eveson, J. P., Fulton, E. A., Feng, M., Plagányi, É. E., et al. (2016) · Advances in marine biology · doi:10.1016/bs.amb.2016.04.002 · Cited by 41
Self-citationTemporal Changes in Ocean Eddy Transports
Stammer, D. B., Wunsch, C. I., & Ueyoshi, K. (2006) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo2858.1 · Cited by 34
Southwest Pacific subtropical mode water: A climatology
Holbrook, N. J., & Maharaj, A. M. (2008) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2007.01.015 · Cited by 32
Self-citationSubtidal macroalgal studies in East and South Eastern Tasmanian coastal waters
Sanderson, J. (1990) · UTAS Research Repository · doi:10.25959/23210315 · Cited by 11
Beljaars (1997) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010
Cited by
Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century.
Oliver, E. C. J., Donat, M. G., Burrows, M. T., Moore, P. J., Smale, D. A., Alexander, L. V., Benthuysen, J. A., Feng, M., Sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A. J., et al. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9 · Cited by 2,133
Self-citationMarine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services
Smale, D. A., Wernberg, T., Oliver, E. C. J., Thomsen, M., Harvey, B. P., Straub, S. C., Burrows, M. T., Alexander, L. V., Benthuysen, J. A., Donat, M. G., et al. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0412-1 · Cited by 1,748
Self-citationMarine heatwaves under global warming
Frölicher, T. L., Fischer, E. M., & Gruber, N. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9 · Cited by 1,904
A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers
Holbrook, N. J., Scannell, H. A., Sen Gupta, A., Benthuysen, J. A., Feng, M., Oliver, E. C. J., Alexander, L. V., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Hobday, A. J., et al. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10206-z · Cited by 772
Self-citationOliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Darmaraki, S., Donat, M. G., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Schlegel, R. W., & Sen Gupta, A. (2021) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-032720-095144 · Cited by 706
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Bindoff, N. L., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Mundy, C. N., & Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2017-07-14
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 16101-16101
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2735759243
- Cited by
- 614
- References
- 55
- FWCI
- 22.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
