Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific
Open accessAbstract
Strongly positive temperature anomalies developed in the NE Pacific Ocean during the boreal winter of 2013–2014. Based on a mixed layer temperature budget, these anomalies were caused by lower than normal rates of the loss of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and of relatively weak cold advection in the upper ocean. Both of these mechanisms can be attributed to an unusually strong and persistent weather pattern featuring much higher than normal sea level pressure over the waters of interest. This anomaly was the greatest observed in this region since at least the 1980s. The region of warm sea surface temperature anomalies subsequently expanded and reached coastal waters in spring and summer 2014. Impacts on fisheries and regional weather are discussed. It is found that sea surface temperature anomalies in this region affect air temperatures downwind in Washington state.
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The North-East Pacific warm anomaly of 2014-2016 had impacts on fisheries and regional weather.
“The North-East Pacific between 45–55 N and 130–150 W is of interest due to the significant warm anomaly in the SST seen between 2014–2016, which had impacts on fisheries and regional weather32.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [32]
The Abstract says the anomaly affected downwind air temperatures in Washington state, and Biological Impacts describes unusual salmon movements and tuna catches in 2014. The Introduction reports anomalously warm SSTs persisting through March 2015; this paper does not establish the claimed 2014–2016 span. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe NE Pacific warm anomaly of 2014-2016 is markedly stronger (in this location) than any previous period in the dataset.
“The NE Pacific warm anomaly of 2014–2016 is markedly stronger (in this location) than any previous period in the dataset and is attributed to strong, persistent, positive sea-level pressure anomalies32.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [32]
The Introduction says the February 2014 temperature anomalies were the greatest observed in the region for that month since at least the 1980s. The Abstract attributes the anomaly to an unusually strong, persistent high-pressure pattern. The paper does not establish that the entire 2014–2016 anomaly was stronger than every previous period in the citing document’s dataset; its reported observations extend only into 2015. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe NE Pacific warm anomaly of 2014-2016 is attributed to strong, persistent, positive sea-level pressure anomalies.
“The NE Pacific warm anomaly of 2014–2016 is markedly stronger (in this location) than any previous period in the dataset and is attributed to strong, persistent, positive sea-level pressure anomalies32.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [32]
The Abstract and Final Remarks attribute the winter 2013–2014 NE Pacific warming to an unusually strong, persistent pattern of positive sea-level pressure anomalies. The paper says warm sea-surface temperatures persisted through March 2015, but does not establish that this explanation applies to the full 2014–2016 period. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe areas with the strongest warming trends during 2010-2018 are the North and East Pacific, the trend being driven by the warm anomalies observed here between 2014-2016.
“The areas with the strongest warming trends during 2010–2018 are the North and East Pacific, the trend being driven by the warm anomalies observed here between 2014–201632,49.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [32]
The Introduction (page not available) documents unusually warm NE Pacific waters in 2014 and says anomalously warm sea surface temperatures persisted through March 2015. It does not assess which regions had the strongest warming trends in 2010–2018 or establish that anomalies through 2016 drove those trends. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA recent atmospherically driven marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific during the boreal winters of 2013-2015 had significant downstream effects on North American weather, and also disrupted northeast Pacific fisheries and coastal ecosystems.
“A recent atmospherically driven marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific during the boreal winters of 2013-2015 had significant downstream effects on North American weather, and also disrupted northeast Pacific fisheries and coastal ecosystems (Bond et al. 2015; Hartman, 2015; Whitney 2015).”
From A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves (2016) · cites this paper as Bond et al. 2015
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
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In the sub-polar gyre there is significant warming in the 1990s and cooling in the 2010s whilst the reverse is true for the north-east Pacific in the region of the recent warm anomaly.
“In the sub-polar gyre we see significant warming in the 1990’s and cooling in the 2010’s whilst the reverse is true for the north-east Pacific in the region of the recent warm anomaly32.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [32]
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Research works printed but not linked: 12
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- Opar, A. (2015), Lost at sea: Starving birds in a warming world, Audubon Magazine, March-April. [Available at https://www.audubon.org/ magazine/march-april-2015/lost-sea-starving-birds-warming-world.] · DOI · Paper page
- Whitney, F. A. (2015), Anomalous winter winds decreases 2014 transition zone productivity in the NE Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 428-431, doi:10.1002/2014GL062634. · DOI · Paper page
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- Authors
- Bond, N. A., Cronin, M. F., Freeland, H., & Mantua, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (US)
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada (CA)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bond, Nicholas A.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2015-05-05
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 3414-3420
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2014042014
- Cited by
- 1,204
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 70 · 2025: 101 · 2024: 122 · 2023: 122 · 2022: 145 · 2021: 134 · 2020: 125 · 2019: 121 · 2018: 101 · 2017: 88 · 2016: 66 · 2015: 7
- FWCI
- 72.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- NOAA Climate Programs Office
- Office of the Washington State Climatologist
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Keywords
- Northeast Pacific, sea surface temperature anomalies, ocean heat loss, cold air advection, sea level pressure, fisheries impacts, air temperature anomalies, Washington State
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