Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century.
Open accessAbstract
Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves have attracted considerable scientific and public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature extremes have been changing globally is missing. Using a range of ocean temperature data including global records of daily satellite observations, daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ-based data sets, we identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century. We find that from 1925 to 2016, global average marine heatwave frequency and duration increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting in a 54% increase in annual marine heatwave days globally. Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming.
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The frequency of marine heatwaves has increased significantly in the tropical North Atlantic during the past 35 years and is expected to increase further in response to global warming.
“The frequency of marine heatwaves has increased significantly in the tropical North Atlantic during the past 35 years and is expected to increase further in response to global warming (Oliver et al., 2018).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Oliver et al., 2018
The Results (‘Marine heatwaves over the satellite record’; page unavailable) report a significant global increase in frequency over 1982–2016 and more moderate increases in the subtropical North Atlantic. The Abstract expects further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming. Our copy does not establish a significant frequency increase specifically in the tropical North Atlantic or predict further frequency increases specifically there. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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- Authors
- Oliver, E. C. J., Donat, M. G., Burrows, M. T., Moore, P. J., Smale, D. A., Alexander, L. V., Benthuysen, J. A., Feng, M., Sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Scannell, H. A., Straub, S. C., & Wernberg, T.
- Affiliations
- University of Tasmania (AU)
- Australian Research Council (AU)
- Scottish Association For Marine Science (GB)
- Aberystwyth University (GB)
- Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom (GB)
- Australian Institute of Marine Science (AU)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- University of Washington (US)
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Oliver, Eric C. J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2018-04-10
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1324-1324
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5893591
- OpenAlex
- W2797541543
- Cited by
- 2,133
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 260 · 2025: 355 · 2024: 383 · 2023: 281 · 2022: 277 · 2021: 262 · 2020: 162 · 2019: 134 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 92.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UTAS Research Repository (acceptedVersion)
- Marine Biological Association (acceptedVersion)
- UNSWorks (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity) (cc-by)
- Funders
- Australian Government (CE170100023)
- European Commission (303685)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Climate Extremes (CE170100023)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/K008439/, NE/J015148/1, NE/N00678X/1, NE/J022446/1, NE/J021938/1, NE/K008439/1, NE/J024082/1, NE/J015644/1)
- Australian Research Council (DP170100023, FS110200029, FT110100174, DE150100456, DE140100952)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Keywords
- marine heatwaves, heatwave frequency, heatwave duration, global warming, ocean warming, climate extremes, ocean heat content
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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