Longitudinal Analysis of Blood Markers Reveals Progressive Loss of Resilience and Predicts Human Lifespan Limit
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Abstract
We investigated the dynamic properties of the organism state fluctuations along individual aging trajectories in a large longitudinal database of CBC measurements from a consumer diagnostics laboratory. To simplify the analysis, we used a log-linear mortality estimate from the CBC variables as a single quantitative measure of the aging process, henceforth referred to as dynamic organism state indicator (DOSI). We observed, that the age-dependent population DOSI distribution broadening could be explained by a progressive loss of physiological resilience measured by the DOSI auto-correlation time. Extrapolation of this trend suggested that DOSI recovery time and variance would simultaneously diverge at a critical point of 120 - 150 years of age corresponding to a complete loss of resilience. The observation was immediately confirmed by the independent analysis of correlation properties of intraday physical activity levels fluctuations collected by wearable devices. We conclude that the criticality resulting in the end of life is an intrinsic biological property of an organism that is independent of stress factors and signifies a fundamental or absolute limit of human lifespan.
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The apparent human lifespan limit is not likely to be improved by therapies aimed against specific chronic diseases or frailty syndrome.
““The proximity of the critical point revealed in this work indicates that the apparent human lifespan limit is not likely to be improved by therapies aimed against specific chronic diseases or frailty syndrome.” (263).”
From A Critical Review of the Evidence That Metformin Is a Putative Anti-Aging Drug That Enhances Healthspan and Extends Lifespan (2021) · cites this paper as [263]
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
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- Authors
- Pyrkov, T. V., Avchaciov, K., Tarkhov, A. E., Menshikov, L. I., Gudkov, A. V., & Fedichev, P. O.
- Affiliations
- Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (RU)
- Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center (US)
- Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (RU)
- Corresponding author
- Pyrkov, Timothy V.
- Fedichev, Peter O.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2021-05-25
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 2765-2765
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8149842
- OpenAlex
- W3164240006
- Cited by
- 139
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 26 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 37
- FWCI
- 8.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Aging › Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Endocrine and Autonomic Systems › Circadian rhythm and melatonin
- Keywords
- aging, physiological resilience, blood cell count, complete blood count, mortality prediction, critical points, wearable devices
- MeSH terms
- Adaptation, Physiological, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Blood Cell Count, Female, Health Status, Humans, Longevity, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Biomarkers, Resilience, Psychological, Young Adult
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