Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe
Open accessAbstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.
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Extreme heat can affect human mental health outcomes across a continuum of severity, from subclinical to life-altering.
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The Introduction discusses how climate and temperature affect mosquito-borne disease transmission, not mental health outcomes. Searches for extreme heat, mental health, and psychiatric outcomes found no passage addressing a spectrum from subclinical to life-altering effects. (LLM, conf=0.77)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWest Nile virus is found across the globe, with its range expanding in some world regions.
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From The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action (2024) · cites this paper as [160]
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Asymmetric Interactions Shape Survival During Population Range ExpansionsPreprint
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XI International EMCA Conference: shaping the future of vector control in Europe
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Genetic structure of the northern house mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) in a WNV-susceptible area
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- Authors
- Erazo, D., Grant, L., Ghisbain, G., Marini, G., Colón-González, F. J., Wint, W., Rizzoli, A., Van Bortel, W., Vogels, C. B. F., Grubaugh, N. D., Mengel, M., Frieler, K., Thiery, W., & Dellicour, S.
- Affiliations
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE)
- University of Mons (BE)
- Fondazione Edmund Mach (IT)
- Yale University (US)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Erazo, Diana
- Dellicour, Simon
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2024-02-08
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1196-1196
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10853512
- OpenAlex
- W4391654441
- Cited by
- 151
- References
- 73
- Citations by year
- 2026: 67 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 22
- FWCI
- 62.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (Université Libre de Bruxelles) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Lirias (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- CINECA IRIS Institutional Research Information System (Fondazione Edmund Mach) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ORBi UMONS (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- VUBIR (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Georgia Clinical and Translational Science Alliance (UL1TR001863)
- Vlaams Supercomputer Centrum
- European Commission (801505, HORIZON2020, 874850)
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
- Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS (4515.22, G098321N, F.4515.22)
- Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (G098321N)
- Vlaamse regering
- National Institutes of Health (UL1TR001863)
- Departement Economie, Wetenschap en Innovatie
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (TR001863)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Keywords
- West Nile virus, climate change, spatial expansion, mosquito-borne diseases, ecological niche modeling, human population density, land use change, emerging infectious diseases, Europe
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Europe, Humans, Culicidae, West Nile Fever, West Nile virus, Climate Change
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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