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A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2
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Theory predicts that rising CO 2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO 2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO 2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO 2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO 2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO 2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.
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“The winning model from the BioMassters data challenge was used as the baseline for comparison with Prithvi-EO-2.0. This model is based on a U-Net architecture with temporal attention encoding [40], using all 12 timestamps and all 15 bands from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 imagery as inputs for each yearly AGB prediction. It achieved an RMSE of 27.49 in the holdout test set.”
From Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multitemporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications (2026) · cites this paper as [40]
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Wu, M., Zhu, S., He, H., Zhang, X., Wang, C., Li, S., Zhang, W., & Jansson, P. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177187 · Cited by 2
Sensitivity of land carbon sinks to the three major oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere
Xu, Z., Liu, D., Zhao, L., & Wang, J. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177317 · Cited by 2
Liu, D., & Xu, Z. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17569 · Cited by 2
Widespread underestimation of ecosystem water use efficiency in CMIP6 models
Li, D., & Wang, S. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132558 · Cited by 2
Stronger climatic impact than anthropogenic control on vegetation carbon sink growth in China
Chen, D., Wu, L., Wei, H., Yang, D., Xiong, L., Chen, G., Du, J., Jia, J., & Xia, Y. (2025) · Ecological Frontiers · doi:10.1016/j.ecofro.2025.09.013 · Cited by 2
Jalali, J., Bhattarai, N., Greene, J., Liu, T., Marko, O., Radulović, M., Sears, M., & Woznicki, S. A. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102404 · Cited by 2
Gene expression scaling with cell size: Insights across kingdoms
Fonseca, A., & Rosa, S. (2026) · Current Opinion in Plant Biology · doi:10.1016/j.pbi.2025.102852 · Cited by 1
Li, J. J., Deng, C., Zhao, X., Ruan, F., Feng, T., Chen, S., Yu, M., Jiang, J., Wang, Y., Qin, F., et al. (2026) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ae4c25 · Cited by 1
Yi, C. F., Fan, Z., Zha, T., Zhang, W., Zeng, X., Yang, H., Kang, W., Li, Q., Hu, Z., & Jin, C. (2026) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105479 · Cited by 1
Wang, Y., Duan, H., Ouyang, S., Wang, J., Tie, L., Cui, Y., Tissue, D. T., & Jiang, M. (2026) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.71475 · Cited by 1
Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Technologies Needed to Decarbonize the Economy
Dong, S. T. (2025) · Palgrave Studies in Energy Transitions · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-04196-9_38-1 · Cited by 1
Revisiting Ancient Forests: Insights From the Mid‐Pliocene to Predict Future Climate Impacts
Eusebio, L., & Douda, J. (2025) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.15128 · Cited by 1
Nonlinear Carbon Feedbacks in CMIP6 and Their Impacts on Future Freshwater Availability
Mankin, J., Siegert, N., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., Seager, R., Williams, P., Lesk, C. S., Li, Z., Singh, H., & Martinez, E. (2025) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-24-0028.1 · Cited by 1
Fallah, A., Barlow, M. A., Basara, J. B., Kooperman, G. J., Kohane, C., & Skinner, C. B. (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2025jd043882 · Cited by 1
Das, R., Karmakar, S., & Ghosh, S. (2025) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ae2e98 · Cited by 1
Wang, Y., Feigenwinter, I., Hörtnagl, L. J., Gilgen, A. K., & Buchmann, N. (2026) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-23-1625-2026 · Cited by 1
Spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear climatic responses of net ecosystem productivity across China
Mi, X., Yu, Q., Yao, T., Liu, B., & Lu, J. (2026) · GIScience & Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/15481603.2026.2664946 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Keenan, T. F., Luo, X., Stocker, B. D., De Kauwe, M. G., Medlyn, B. E., Prentice, I. C., Smith, N. G., Terrer, C., Wang, H., Zhang, Y., & Zhou, S.
- Affiliations
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Western Sydney University (AU)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Texas Tech University (US)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Keenan, T. F.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2023-11-27
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1376-1381
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W4389045820
- Cited by
- 138
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 44 · 2025: 55 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 15.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DORA WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- ThinkTech (Texas Tech University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DE-AC52-07-NA27344, DEAC02-05CH11231)
- U.S. Department of Energy (-AC02-05CH11231, DEAC5207NA27344, AC52‐07NA27344, 05CH11231, DESC0021023, DE AC02 05CH11231, DE-AC02-)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (DE-AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC52-07NA27344, NNH17AE86I, 80NSSC21K1705)
- Texas Tech University
- Imperial College London
- European Commission (HORIZON2020, DE-AC02-05CH11231, 787203)
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (181115)
- Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
- Climate Extremes (CE170100023)
- Office of Science (DEAC02–05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC02, DE-AC52-07NA27344, 05CH11231)
- Australian Research Council (DP190101823)
- Biological and Environmental Research (05CH11231, DE-AC02 − 05CH11231, DE-AC52-07NA27344, AC02-05CH11231)
- Laboratory Directed Research and Development (DEAC02-05CH11231, DE- AC52-07NA27344)
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (DE‐AC5207NA27344, 07NA27344, 20-ERD-055, DE-AC02-05CH11231, AC52-07NA27344)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Keywords
- CO2 fertilization, terrestrial carbon sink, global carbon budget, terrestrial biosphere models, remote sensing of vegetation, anthropogenic CO2 emissions, carbon cycle
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