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A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2
Open accessAbstract
Theory predicts that rising CO 2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO 2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO 2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO 2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO 2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO 2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.
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“The winning model from the BioMassters data challenge was used as the baseline for comparison with Prithvi-EO-2.0. This model is based on a U-Net architecture with temporal attention encoding [40], using all 12 timestamps and all 15 bands from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 imagery as inputs for each yearly AGB prediction. It achieved an RMSE of 27.49 in the holdout test set.”
From Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multitemporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications (2026) · cites this paper as [40]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Keenan, T. F., Luo, X., Stocker, B. D., De Kauwe, M. G., Medlyn, B. E., Prentice, I. C., Smith, N. G., Terrer, C., Wang, H., Zhang, Y., & Zhou, S.
- Affiliations
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Western Sydney University (AU)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Texas Tech University (US)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Keenan, T. F.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2023-11-27
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1376-1381
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W4389045820
- Cited by
- 138
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 44 · 2025: 55 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 15.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DORA WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- ThinkTech (Texas Tech University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DE-AC52-07-NA27344, DEAC02-05CH11231)
- U.S. Department of Energy (-AC02-05CH11231, DEAC5207NA27344, AC52‐07NA27344, 05CH11231, DESC0021023, DE AC02 05CH11231, DE-AC02-)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (DE-AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC52-07NA27344, NNH17AE86I, 80NSSC21K1705)
- Texas Tech University
- Imperial College London
- European Commission (HORIZON2020, DE-AC02-05CH11231, 787203)
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (181115)
- Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
- Climate Extremes (CE170100023)
- Office of Science (DEAC02–05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC02, DE-AC52-07NA27344, 05CH11231)
- Australian Research Council (DP190101823)
- Biological and Environmental Research (05CH11231, DE-AC02 − 05CH11231, DE-AC52-07NA27344, AC02-05CH11231)
- Laboratory Directed Research and Development (DEAC02-05CH11231, DE- AC52-07NA27344)
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (DE‐AC5207NA27344, 07NA27344, 20-ERD-055, DE-AC02-05CH11231, AC52-07NA27344)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Keywords
- CO2 fertilization, terrestrial carbon sink, global carbon budget, terrestrial biosphere models, remote sensing of vegetation, anthropogenic CO2 emissions, carbon cycle
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