The DOI matches its Crossref record; 75 of the 77 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Subjective confidence reflects representation of Bayesian probability in cortex
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
What gives rise to the human sense of confidence? Here we tested the Bayesian hypothesis that confidence is based on a probability distribution represented in neural population activity. We implemented several computational models of confidence and tested their predictions using psychophysics and functional magnetic resonance imaging. Using a generative model-based decoding technique, we extracted probability distributions from neural population activity in human visual cortex. We found that subjective confidence tracks the shape of the decoded distribution. That is, when sensory evidence was more precise, as indicated by the decoded distribution, observers reported higher levels of confidence. We furthermore found that neural activity in the insula, anterior cingulate and prefrontal cortex was linked to both the shape of the decoded distribution and reported confidence, in ways consistent with the Bayesian model. Altogether, our findings support recent statistical theories of confidence and suggest that probabilistic information guides the computation of one's sense of confidence.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“They found that reported confidence was negatively correlated with such a readout of uncertainty, even when the stimulus was held fixed.”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Geurts et al. 2022
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Finally, in the study by Geurts et al. (2022) described above, the decoder's readout of sensory uncertainty in early visual areas was correlated with univariate fMRI signals in prefrontal cortex, consistent with domain-specific uncertainty estimates informing globally available estimates of propositional confidence.”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Geurts et al. 2022
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Desikan, R. S., Ségonne, F., Fischl, B., Quinn, B. T., Dickerson, B. C., Blacker, D., Buckner, R. L., Dale, A. M., Maguire, R. P., Hyman, B. T., et al. (2006) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2006.01.021 · Cited by 13,324
Jenkinson, M., Bannister, P., Brady, M., & Smith, S. (2002) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1006/nimg.2002.1132 · Cited by 11,888
Jenkinson, M., Beckmann, C. F., Behrens, T. E. J., Woolrich, M. W., & Smith, S. M. (2012) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2011.09.015 · Cited by 11,314
Fast robust automated brain extraction
Smith, S. M. (2002) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.10062 · Cited by 10,496
Cohen, J. (1992) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037//0033-2909.112.1.155 · Cited by 8,771
Zhang, Y., Brady, M., & Smith, S. M. (2001) · IEEE Transactions on Medical Imaging · doi:10.1109/42.906424 · Cited by 7,628
SMITH, S., & NICHOLS, T. (2009) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2008.03.061 · Cited by 5,250
The Neural Basis of Decision Making
Gold, J. I., & Shadlen, M. N. (2007) · Annual Review of Neuroscience · doi:10.1146/annurev.neuro.29.051605.113038 · Cited by 3,764
Permutation inference for the general linear model
Winkler, A. M., Ridgway, G. R., Webster, M. A., Smith, S. M., & Nichols, T. E. (2014) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2014.01.060 · Cited by 3,563
SUSAN—a new approach to low level image processing
Smith, S. M., & Brady, J. M. (1997) · International Journal of Computer Vision · doi:10.1023/a:1007963824710 · Cited by 3,333
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Green, D. M. & Swets, J. A. Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics (Wiley, 1966).
- Kleiner, M., Brainard, D. H. & Pelli, D. G. What’s new in Psychtoolbox-3? Perception 36 (Suppl.), 14 (2007).
- Hedges, L. V. & Olkin, I. Statistical Methods for Meta-analysis (Academic Press, 1985).
- Fieller, E. C. & Pearson, E. S. Tests for rank correlation coefficients: II. Biometrika 48, 29–40 (1961).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis
Fleming, S. M. (2024) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-022423-032425 · Cited by 256
“Finally, in the study by Geurts et al. (2022) described above, the decoder’s readout of sensory uncertainty in early visual areas was correlated with univariate fMRI signals in the prefrontal cortex, consistent with domain-specific uncertainty estimates informing globally available estimates of…”
Precision and the Bayesian brain
Yon, D., & Frith, C. (2021) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2021.07.044 · Cited by 186
An insula hierarchical network architecture for active interoceptive inference
Fermin, A. S. R., Friston, K., & Yamawaki, S. (2022) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.220226 · Cited by 101
Confidence reflects a noisy decision reliability estimate
Boundy-Singer, Z. M., Ziemba, C. M., & Goris, R. L. T. (2022) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-022-01464-x · Cited by 71
The future of metacognition research: Balancing construct breadth with measurement rigor
Katyal, S., & Fleming, S. M. (2024) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2023.11.002 · Cited by 63
Metadata
- Authors
- Geurts, L. S., Cooke, J. R. H., van Bergen, R. S., & Jehee, J. F. M.
- Affiliations
- Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Jehee, Janneke F. M.
- Venue
- Nature Human Behaviour
- Published
- 2022-01-20
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 294-305
- ISSN
- 2397-3374 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7612428
- OpenAlex
- W4220816838
- Cited by
- 104
- References
- 77
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 31 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 9
- FWCI
- 10.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2022-03-09)
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Human Behaviour (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Keywords
- subjective confidence, Bayesian probability, neural population activity, visual cortex, insula, anterior cingulate cortex, prefrontal cortex, confidence model, decision-making
- MeSH terms
- Bayes Theorem, Cerebral Cortex, Humans, Probability, Visual Cortex, Visual Perception
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
