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Cited by 276Global Maternal and Child HealthMaternal and Neonatal HealthcareChild Nutrition and Water Access

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

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Burstein, Roy, Henry, Nathaniel J., Collison, Michael L., Marczak, Laurie B., Sligar, Amber, Watson, Stefanie, Marquez, Neal, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Mahdieh +551 more·2019·Nature
DOI 10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0PMC PMC6800389
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Abstract

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

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  • The reductions in childhood mortality associated with diarrhoeal diseases that have occurred across many parts of Africa can be partly explained by many combined local efforts in improved immunisation, access to water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities, breastfeeding, oral rehydration therapy, and zinc supplementation, alongside global initiatives.

    “The reductions in childhood mortality associated with diarrhoeal diseases that have occurred across many parts of Africa35, 40, 41, 42 can also be partly explained by many combined local efforts in improved immunisation;43 access to water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities;12, 44 breastfeeding;45 oral rehydration therapy;46 and zinc supplementation,15 alongside global initiatives”

    From Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2024) · cites this paper as [40]

    The ‘Unequal rates of child mortality’ section reports substantial reductions in under-5 mortality, including in sub-Saharan African countries. It does not establish that these reductions were specifically in deaths from diarrhoeal diseases; the ‘Precision public health and child mortality’ section mentions diarrhoea only as a subject of another mapping study. The listed interventions have separate citations in the citing sentence and are not attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.83)

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. [21]Gething PW Mapping Plasmodium falciparum mortality in Africa between 1990 and 2015 N. Engl. J. Med. 2016 375 2435 2445 27723434 PMC5484406
  2. [30]Agarwal S Taneja S All slums are not equal: child health conditions among the urban poor Indian Pediatr. 2005 42 233 244 15817971

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Burstein, R., Henry, N. J., Collison, M. L., Marczak, L. B., Sligar, A., Watson, S., Marquez, N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M., Abbasi, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abrigo, M. R. M., Acharya, D., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adham, D., Afshari, M., Aghaali, M., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmadpour, E., Ahmed, R., Akal, C. G., Akinyemi, J. O., Alahdab, F., Alam, N., Alamene, G. M., Alene, K. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Almalki, M. J., Al-Mekhlafi, H. M., Altirkawi, K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amegah, A. K., Amini, S., Amit, A. M. L., Anbari, Z., Androudi, S., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Arefi, Z., Aremu, O., Armoon, B., Arora, A., Artaman, A., Asadi, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Ashraf-Ganjouei, A., Assadi, R., Ataeinia, B., Atre, S. R., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Babaee, E., Babazadeh, A., Badawi, A., Bagheri, S., Bagherzadeh, M., Baheiraei, N., Balouchi, A., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Behzadifar, M., Behzadifar, M., Belay, Y. B., Bell, B., Bell, M. L., Berbada, D. A., Bernstein, R. S., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bohlouli, S., Breitborde, N. J. K., Britton, G., Browne, A. J., Nagaraja, S. B., Busse, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Cerin, E., Chanie, W. F., Chatterjee, P., Chu, D.-T., Cooper, C., Costa, V. M., Dalal, K., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Daryani, A., Das Gupta, R., Davis, I., Davis Weaver, N., Davitoiu, D. V., De Neve, J.-W., Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Deribe, K., Desai, R., Deshpande, A., Desyibelew, H. D., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Doshmangir, L., Duraes, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Ebrahimi, R., Ebrahimpour, S., Effiong, A., Eftekhari, A., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed, I., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., El-Khatib, Z., Emamian, M. H., Enany, S., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Ezalarab, M., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faridnia, R., Faro, A., Fazaeli, A. A., Fazlzadeh, M., Fentahun, N., Fereshtehnejad, S.-M., Fernandes, J. C., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Foroutan, M., Francis, J. M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gallus, S., Gebre, D. G., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gebremeskel, G. G., Gessner, B. D., Geta, B., Gething, P. W., Ghadimi, R., Ghadiri, K., Ghajarzadeh, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Golding, N., Gomes, N. G. M., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B. N. G., Graetz, N., Greaves, F., Green, M. S., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamidi, S., Haririan, H., Haro, J. M., Hasankhani, M., Hasanpoor, E., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H. Y., Hegazy, M. I., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Hird, T. R., Hoang, C. L., Hollerich, G., Rad, E. H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, M., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hsairi, M., Ilesanmi, O. S., Imani-Nasab, M. H., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, N., Islam, S. M. S., Jürisson, M., Balalami, N. J., Jalali, A., Javidnia, J., Jayatilleke, A. U., Jenabi, E., Ji, J. S., Jobanputra, Y. B., Johnson, K., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalani, H., Kalhor, R., Karami, M., Karki, S., Kasaeian, A., Kassebaum, N. J., Keiyoro, P. N., Kemp, G. R., Khabiri, R., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khan, J., Khan, M. S., Khang, Y.-H., Khatab, K., Khater, A., Khater, M. M., Khatony, A., Khazaei, M., Khazaei, S., Khazaei-Pool, M., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kolola, T., Kosen, S., Koul, P. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Krohn, K. J., Kugbey, N., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Kuupiel, D., Lacey, B., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Larsson, A. O., Lee, P. H., Leili, M., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Lim, L.-L., Listl, S., Longbottom, J., Lopez, J. C. F., Lorkowski, S., Magdeldin, S., Abd El Razek, H. M., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Manafi, N., Manda, A.-L., Mansourian, M., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Maulik, P. K., Mayala, B. K., Mazidi, M., McKee, M., Mehrotra, R., Mehta, K. M., Meles, G. G., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Mills, E. J., Milne, G. J., Mini, G. K., Mir, S. M., Mirjalali, H., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mohamadi, E., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mezerji, N. M. G., Mohammed, A. S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradi, Y., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradinazar, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Mosapour, A., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Muluneh, A. G., Mustafa, G., Nabavizadeh, B., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A. J., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Neamati, N., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Thi Nguyen, H. L., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nielsen, K. R., Ningrum, D. N. A., Nirayo, Y. L., Nixon, M. R., Nnaji, C. A., Nojomi, M., Noroozi, M., Nosratnejad, S., Noubiap, J. J., Motlagh, S. N., Ofori-Asenso, R., Ogbo, F. A., Oladimeji, K. E., Olagunju, A. T., Olfatifar, M., Olum, S., Olusanya, B. O., Oluwasanu, M. M., Onwujekwe, O. E., Oren, E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz, A., Osarenotor, O., Osei, F. B., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., P. A., M., Pagheh, A. S., Pakhale, S., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Park, E.-K., Parsian, H., Pashaei, T., Patel, S. K., Pepito, V. C. F., Pereira, A., Perkins, S., Pickering, B. V., Pilgrim, T., Pirestani, M., Piroozi, B., Pirsaheb, M., Plana-Ripoll, O., Pourjafar, H., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Quintana, H., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi, Z., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahimzadeh, S., Rajati, F., Raju, S. B., Ramezankhani, A., Ranabhat, C. L., Rasella, D., Rashedi, V., Rawal, L., Reiner Jr, R. C., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Riahi, S. M., Ribeiro, A. I., Roever, L., Roro, E. M., Roser, M., Roshandel, G., Roshani, D., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Rubino, S., Sabour, S., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi, R., Safari, Y., Safari-Faramani, R., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salahshoor, M. R., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salehi, F., Zahabi, S. S., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Salomon, J. A., Sambala, E. Z., Samy, A. M., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Jose, B. P. S., Saraswathy, S. Y. I., Sarmiento-Suárez, R., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Saxena, S., Sbarra, A. N., Schaeffer, L. E., Schwebel, D. C., Sepanlou, S. G., Seyedmousavi, S., Shaahmadi, F., Shaikh, M. A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamshirian, A., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sharif, M., Sharif-Alhoseini, M., Sharifi, H., Sharma, J., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shields, C., Shigematsu, M., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Shuval, K., Siddiqi, T. J., Silva, J. P., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Sisay, M. M., Sisay, S., Sliwa, K., Smith, D. L., Somayaji, R., Soofi, M., Soriano, J. B., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Sudaryanto, A., Sufiyan, M. B., Sykes, B. L., Sylaja, P. N., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tabb, K. M., Tabuchi, T., Taveira, N., Temsah, M.-H., Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, Z. T., Thankappan, K. R., Thirunavukkarasu, S., To, Q. G., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Usman, M. S., Uthman, O. A., Vahedian-Azimi, A., Valdez, P. R., van Boven, J. F. M., Vasankari, T. J., Vasseghian, Y., Veisani, Y., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, F. S., Vladimirov, S. K., Vlassov, V., Vos, T., Vu, G. T., Vujcic, I. S., Waheed, Y., Wakefield, J., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Wang, Y.-P., Ward, J. L., Weintraub, R. G., Weldegwergs, K. G., Weldesamuel, G. T., Westerman, R., Wiysonge, C. S., Wondafrash, D. Z., Woyczynski, L., Wu, A.-M., Xu, G., Yadegar, A., Yamada, T., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yilgwan, C. S., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Lebni, J. Y., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yousof, H.-A. S. A., Yu, C., Yusefzadeh, H., Zabeh, E., Moghadam, T. Z., Bin Zaman, S., Zamani, M., Zandian, H., Zangeneh, A., Zerfu, T. A., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Murray, C. J. L., & Hay, S. I.
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  • The University of Tokyo (JP)
  • University of Jos (NG)
  • University of Hong Kong (HK)
  • National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry (JP)
  • Jackson State University (US)
  • Wuhan University (CN)
  • African Population and Health Research Center (KE)
Corresponding author
Hay, Simon I.
ORCID
Venue
Nature
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2019-10-16
Volume
574
Issue
7778
Pages
353-358
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
DOI
10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0
PMC
PMC6800389
OpenAlex
W2980608708
Cited by
276
References
62
Citations by year
2026: 12 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 55 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 47 · 2019: 4 · 2016: 1
FWCI
40.03
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • University of Twente Research Information (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • LSTM Online Archive (Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
  • Lincoln Repository (University of Lincoln) (acceptedVersion)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (acceptedVersion)
  • SHURA (Sheffield Hallam University Research Archive) (Sheffield Hallam University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) (acceptedVersion)
  • Research Information System of Ardabil University of Medical Sciences (Ardabil University of Medical Sciences) (acceptedVersion)
  • ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
  • LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
  • QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Sussex Research Online (University of Sussex) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Monash University Research Portal (Monash University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Repositório Comum (Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • BRAC University Institutional Repository (BRAC University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research Repository Portal (Ilam University of Medical Sciences) (submittedVersion)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
  • University of Thessaly Institutional Repository (University of Thessaly) (submittedVersion)
  • UnissResearch (Università degli Studi di Sassari) (submittedVersion)
  • Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • PUB – Publications at Bielefeld University (Bielefeld University) (submittedVersion)
  • UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
  • Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Chalmers Research (Chalmers University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
  • ResearchSpace (University of Auckland) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
  • Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • UNSWorks (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • University of Twente Research Information (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Apollo (cc-by)
  • Greater South Information System
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (#OPP1132415)
  • Kaiser Permanente
  • University of Washington
  • University of Ottawa
  • Wellcome Trust (201-900/Z/16/Z, 109949/Z/15/Z)
  • A.T. Still University
  • Aksum University
  • Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri - IRCCS
  • Maragheh University of Medical Sciences
  • National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0508-10082, NF-SI-0513-10085)
  • University of Southampton
  • University of Oxford
  • Australian Catholic University
  • Public Health Foundation of India
  • Karolinska Institutet
  • Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences
  • Shahroud University of Medical Sciences
  • Simon Fraser University
  • Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
  • Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services
  • Hamadan University of Medical Sciences
  • Babol University of Medical Sciences
  • Universität Bielefeld
  • Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
  • Bahir Dar University
  • Universidade do Porto
  • Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
  • Universitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie "Carol Davila" Bucureşti
  • University of Tabriz
  • University of Gondar
  • Addis Ababa University
  • University of Peradeniya
  • Mansoura University
  • Mekelle University
  • Alexandria University
  • Kurdistan University Of Medical Sciences
  • Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University
  • Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit
  • Universidade Federal de Sergipe
  • Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa
  • Đại học Quốc gia Hà Nội
  • Medical Research Council (MR/R00160X/1, MC_UU_12011/1)
  • Fogarty International Center (K43TW010716)
  • Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD007242)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Global Maternal and Child Health
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare
  • Health Sciences › Nursing › Nutrition and Dietetics › Child Nutrition and Water Access
Keywords
child mortality, neonatal mortality, infant mortality, under-five mortality, mortality trends, mortality averted, Sustainable Development Goal 3.2, low- and middle-income countries
MeSH terms
Child, Geography, Humans, Infant, Infant Mortality, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Public Health, Socioeconomic Factors, United Nations, Global Health, Child Mortality

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