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Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

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Tavares, Julia Valentim, Oliveira, Rafael S., Mencuccini, Maurizio, Signori-Müller, Caroline, Pereira, Luciano, Diniz, Francisco Carvalho, Gilpin, Martin, Marca Zevallos, Manuel J. +73 more·2023·Nature
DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-05971-3PMC PMC10156596
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Abstract

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk 1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM 50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk 3–5, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM 50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM 50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM 50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM 50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM 50 in the Amazon 6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

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  • Past drier climatic conditions were very different from current climatic conditions, in which observed warming trends may exacerbate drought impacts on the forest by exposing trees to unprecedented levels of water stress.

    “Past drier climatic conditions were therefore very different from the current climatic conditions, in which observed warming trends may exacerbate drought impacts on the forest by exposing trees to unprecedented levels of water stress31,32.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [32]

    The Main section says rising temperatures are likely to intensify water stress in Amazonian forests, and Implications and conclusions says higher temperatures and vapour pressure deficit will probably reduce trees’ hydraulic safety margins. The paper does not establish that past drier conditions were very different from current conditions or that trees will face unprecedented levels of water stress. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • As a result of low exposure to water deficit, most northwestern forests have trees with low drought resistance and could suffer massive mortality if suddenly exposed to severe water stress.

    “As a result of low exposure to water deficit, most northwestern forests have trees with low drought resistance and could suffer massive mortality if suddenly exposed to severe water stress32.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [32]

    The Hydraulic traits distribution section reports that ever-wet forests, which have little drought exposure, have the least embolism-resistant xylem. It also says they face the lowest apparent risk of hydraulic failure under observed conditions. The paper does not establish that most northwestern forests would suffer massive mortality if suddenly exposed to severe water stress. (LLM, conf=0.85)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Most seasonal forest trees have various strategies to cope with water deficit owing to evolutionary and adaptive responses to historical drought events.

    “By contrast, most seasonal forest trees have various strategies to cope with water deficit owing to evolutionary and adaptive responses to historical drought events32,63.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [32]

    The Hydraulic traits distribution section reports differences in drought-related hydraulic traits among Amazonian forests. The Implications and conclusions section suggests that drought-resistant xylem may be an evolutionary adaptation and that periodic El Niño events may have selected for drought-adapted taxa in central eastern forests. It does not establish that most seasonal forest trees have multiple coping strategies because of historical droughts. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Significant effects on simulation results may emerge from increasing plant functional diversity, representation of key physiological trade-offs and other features that determine water stress on plants, and allowing for community adjustment to environmental heterogeneity and global change.

    “Significant effects on simulation results may emerge from increasing plant functional diversity, representation of key physiological trade-offs and other features that determine water stress on plants, and also allowing for community adjustment to environmental heterogeneity and global change32,55,62,99.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [32]

    The Abstract and Implications and conclusions (page unavailable) link variation in hydraulic traits and a proposed growth–mortality trade-off to Amazon forest composition and biomass change. Hydraulic traits distribution also reports variation with rainfall and local water availability. The paper does not show that increasing functional diversity or allowing community adjustment significantly changes simulation results. (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • These strategies may allow seasonal forests to resist current levels of rainfall fluctuations, but seasonal forests are also closer to the critical rainfall thresholds and may experience unprecedented water stress in the coming decades.

    “These strategies may allow seasonal forests to resist current levels of rainfall fluctuations32, but seasonal forests are also closer to the critical rainfall thresholds (Extended Data Fig. 1) and may experience unprecedented water stress in the coming decades (Fig. 1).”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [32]

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Tavares, J. V., Oliveira, R. S., Mencuccini, M., Signori-Müller, C., Pereira, L., Diniz, F. C., Gilpin, M., Marca Zevallos, M. J., Salas Yupayccana, C. A., Acosta, M., Pérez Mullisaca, F. M., Barros, F. D. V., Bittencourt, P., Jancoski, H., Scalon, M. C., Marimon, B. S., Oliveras Menor, I., Marimon, B. H., Fancourt, M., Chambers-Ostler, A., Esquivel-Muelbert, A., Rowland, L., Meir, P., Lola da Costa, A. C., Nina, A., Sanchez, J. M. B., Tintaya, J. S., Chino, R. S. C., Baca, J., Fernandes, L., Cumapa, E. R. M., Santos, J. A. R., Teixeira, R., Tello, L., Ugarteche, M. T. M., Cuellar, G. A., Martinez, F., Araujo-Murakami, A., Almeida, E., da Cruz, W. J. A., del Aguila Pasquel, J., Aragāo, L., Baker, T. R., de Camargo, P. B., Brienen, R., Castro, W., Ribeiro, S. C., Coelho de Souza, F., Cosio, E. G., Davila Cardozo, N., da Costa Silva, R., Disney, M., Espejo, J. S., Feldpausch, T. R., Ferreira, L., Giacomin, L., Higuchi, N., Hirota, M., Honorio, E., Huaraca Huasco, W., Lewis, S., Flores Llampazo, G., Malhi, Y., Monteagudo Mendoza, A., Morandi, P., Chama Moscoso, V., Muscarella, R., Penha, D., Rocha, M. C., Rodrigues, G., Ruschel, A. R., Salinas, N., Schlickmann, M., Silveira, M., Talbot, J., Vásquez, R., Vedovato, L., Vieira, S. A., Phillips, O. L., Gloor, E., & Galbraith, D. R.
Affiliations
  • Uppsala University (SE)
  • Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
  • Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ES)
  • University of Leeds (GB)
  • Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR)
  • University of Exeter (GB)
  • Australian National University (AU)
  • Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PE)
  • National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco (PE)
  • Universidade Federal do Pará (BR)
  • Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana (PE)
  • Gabriel René Moreno Autonomous University (BO)
  • Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará (BR)
  • Universidade Federal do Acre (BR)
  • University College London (GB)
  • Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi (BR)
  • Universidade Federal da Paraíba (BR)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
  • Embrapa Amazônia Oriental (BR)
  • Jardín Botánico de Missouri (PE)
Corresponding author
Tavares, Julia Valentim
ORCID
Venue
Nature
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2023-04-26
Volume
617
Issue
7959
Pages
111-117
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
DOI
10.1038/s41586-023-05971-3
PMC
PMC10156596
OpenAlex
W4367049729
Cited by
111
References
1
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11.47
Type
journal article
Language
en
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  • Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Uppsala University Publications (Uppsala University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • St Andrews Research Repository (St Andrews Research Repository) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
  • LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Greater South Information System
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (1753973)
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
  • University of Leeds (S011811)
  • Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (13/50533-5, 50533-5, 13/50531-2, 11/52072-0)
  • Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (99999, 88881, 2016‐01)
  • Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (Code 001, 2016‐8, 88881)
  • Vetenskapsrådet (2019-03758)
  • Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas
  • Uppsala Universitet
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
  • Natural Environment Research Council (321131, NE/S011811/1, NE/W001691/1, 1366186, NE/J016233/1, NE/R016518/1, NE/N012542/1, NE/N004655/1)
  • Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade
  • Ciência sem Fronteiras
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Keywords
xylem embolism resistance, drought sensitivity, Amazon rainforest, forest carbon balance, growth-mortality trade-off, rainfall characteristics, climate change impacts on forests
MeSH terms
Carbon, Dehydration, Rain, Stress, Physiological, Trees, Tropical Climate, Biomass, Xylem, Droughts, Climate Change, Carbon Sequestration, Forests

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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