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Cited by 514Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsForest ecology and management

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

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Esquivel‐Muelbert, Adriane, Baker, Timothy R., Dexter, Kyle G., Lewis, Simon L., Brienen, Roel J. W., Feldpausch, Ted R., Lloyd, Jon, Monteagudo‐Mendoza, Abel +96 more·2019·Global Change Biology
DOI 10.1111/gcb.14413PMC PMC6334637
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Abstract

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate‐induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long‐term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water‐deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large‐statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry‐affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet‐affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO 2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large‐statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

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  • Field evidence from long-term monitoring sites across the Amazon shows that tree mortality rates are increasing in most sites, reducing carbon storage, while favouring the replacement by drought-affiliated species.

    “For instance, field evidence from long-term monitoring sites across the Amazon shows that tree mortality rates are increasing in most sites, reducing carbon storage46, while favouring the replacement by drought-affiliated species47.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [47]

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Authors
Esquivel‐Muelbert, A., Baker, T. R., Dexter, K. G., Lewis, S. L., Brienen, R. J. W., Feldpausch, T. R., Lloyd, J., Monteagudo‐Mendoza, A., Arroyo, L., Álvarez-Dávila, E., Higuchi, N., Marimon, B. S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Silveira, M., Vilanova, E., Gloor, E., Malhi, Y., Chave, J., Barlow, J., Bonal, D., Davila Cardozo, N., Erwin, T., Fauset, S., Hérault, B., Laurance, S., Poorter, L., Qie, L., Stahl, C., Sullivan, M. J. P., ter Steege, H., Vos, V. A., Zuidema, P. A., Almeida, E., Almeida de Oliveira, E., Andrade, A., Vieira, S. A., Aragão, L., Araujo‐Murakami, A., Arets, E., Aymard C, G. A., Baraloto, C., Camargo, P. B., Barroso, J. G., Bongers, F., Boot, R., Camargo, J. L., Castro, W., Chama Moscoso, V., Comiskey, J., Cornejo Valverde, F., Lola da Costa, A. C., del Aguila Pasquel, J., Di Fiore, A., Fernanda Duque, L., Elias, F., Engel, J., Flores Llampazo, G., Galbraith, D., Herrera Fernández, R., Honorio Coronado, E., Hubau, W., Jimenez‐Rojas, E., Lima, A. J. N., Umetsu, R. K., Laurance, W., Lopez‐Gonzalez, G., Lovejoy, T., Aurelio Melo Cruz, O., Morandi, P. S., Neill, D., Núñez Vargas, P., Pallqui Camacho, N. C., Parada Gutierrez, A., Pardo, G., Peacock, J., Peña‐Claros, M., Peñuela‐Mora, M. C., Petronelli, P., Pickavance, G. C., Pitman, N., Prieto, A., Quesada, C., Ramírez‐Angulo, H., Réjou‐Méchain, M., Restrepo Correa, Z., Roopsind, A., Rudas, A., Salomão, R., Silva, N., Silva Espejo, J., Singh, J., Stropp, J., Terborgh, J., Thomas, R., Toledo, M., Torres‐Lezama, A., Valenzuela Gamarra, L., van de Meer, P. J., van der Heijden, G., van der Hout, P., Vasquez Martinez, R., Vela, C., Vieira, I. C. G., & Phillips, O. L.
Affiliations
  • University of Leeds (GB)
  • Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (GB)
  • University of Exeter (GB)
  • Imperial College London (GB)
  • National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco (PE)
  • Gabriel René Moreno Autonomous University (BO)
  • Red para la Mitigación y Adaptación al Cambio Climático - Red MiA Escuela ECAPMA de la Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia Bogotá Colombia
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia ‐ Coordenação de Pesquisas em Silvicultura Tropical Manaus Brazil
  • Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR)
  • Universidade Federal do Acre (BR)
  • University of Washington (US)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB) UMR 5174 CNRS/UPS Bâtiment 4R1 Toulouse France
  • Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi (BR)
  • AgroParisTech (FR)
  • Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana Iquitos Peru
  • Smithsonian Institution (US)
  • Université de Montpellier (FR)
  • James Cook University (AU)
  • Wageningen University & Research (NL)
  • INRA UMR EcoFoG AgroParisTech CNRS Cirad Université des Antilles Université de Guyane Kourou France
  • Naturalis Biodiversity Center Leiden The Netherlands
  • Universidad Autónoma del Beni (BO)
  • Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará (BR)
  • Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso Mato Grosso Nova Xavantina Brazil
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
  • Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
  • UNELLEZ‐Guanare Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar Herbario Universitario (PORT) Barinas Venezuela
  • Florida International University (US)
  • Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
  • 31 Tropenbos International and Group Ecology and Biodiversity Beta Faculty Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
  • Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco Cusco Peru
  • Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program Puerto Maldonado Peru
  • Universidade Federal do Pará Pará Brazil
  • Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonia Peruana Iquitos Peru
  • University of Texas at Austin Austin Texas
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
  • Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre de Grohmann (UNJBG) Tacna Peru
  • Centro de Ecologia Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas Caracas Venezuela
  • Michigan Tech University Houghton Michigan
  • Royal Museum for Central Africa (BE)
  • Grupo de Investigación en Temas Agroambientales INTEGRA Tecnológico de Antioquia Institución Universitaria Medellin Colombia
  • School of Geography University of Leeds Leeds UK
  • George Mason University (US)
  • Universidad de Tolima Villeta Colombia
  • Universidad Estatal Amazónica (EC)
  • Universidad Regional Amazónica ikiam Tena Ecuador
  • Cirad UMR Ecofog (AgrosParisTech, CNRS, INRA, Univ Guyane) Kourou French Guiana
  • Field Museum of Natural History (US)
  • Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO)
  • Universidad de Los Andes (VE)
  • Servicios Ecosistémicos y Cambio Climático (SECC) Fundación Con Vida & Corporación COL‐TREE Medellin Colombia
  • Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development (GY)
  • Serviço Florestal Brasileiro Santarem Brazil
  • Departamento de Biología Universidad de La Serena La Serena Chile
  • Guyana Forestry Commission (GY)
  • Universidade Federal de Alagoas (BR)
  • Duke University (US)
  • Jardín Botánico de Missouri Oxapampa Peru
  • Forest and Nature Management Group Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences Velp The Netherland
  • University of Nottingham Nottingham UK
  • van der Hout Forestry Consulting Rotterdam The Netherlands
  • Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Forestal Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco Puerto Maldonado Perú
Corresponding author
Esquivel‐Muelbert, Adriane
ORCID
Venue
Global Change Biology
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2018-11-08
Volume
25
Issue
1
Pages
39-56
ISSN
  • 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
  • 1365-2486
DOI
10.1111/gcb.14413
PMC
PMC6334637
OpenAlex
W2900106581
Cited by
514
References
4
Citations by year
2026: 67 · 2025: 55 · 2024: 68 · 2023: 68 · 2022: 80 · 2021: 78 · 2020: 62 · 2019: 33 · 2018: 2
FWCI
32.98
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Global Change Biology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • e-space (Manchester Metropolitan University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Lincoln Repository (University of Lincoln) (acceptedVersion)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
  • Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • PEARL (University of Plymouth) (submittedVersion)
  • Digital Commons - Michigan Tech (Michigan Technological University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Agritrop (Cirad) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Americanae (AECID Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion)
  • Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion)
  • LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • St Andrews Research Repository (St Andrews Research Repository) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/N004655/1)
  • H2020 European Research Council
  • Seventh Framework Programme (282664)
  • Royal Society (CH160091)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
Keywords
Amazon rainforest, climate change, tree community composition, functional traits, tree size, wood density, tree recruitment, tree mortality, atmospheric CO2, long-term forest plots, tropical forests
MeSH terms
Brazil, Carbon Dioxide, Seasons, Trees, Tropical Climate, Water, Ecosystem, Biodiversity, Climate Change, Forests

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