Early human settlement of Sahul was not an accident
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The first peopling of Sahul (Australia, New Guinea and the Aru Islands joined at lower sea levels) by anatomically modern humans required multiple maritime crossings through Wallacea, with at least one approaching 100 km. Whether these crossings were accidental or intentional is unknown. Using coastal-viewshed analysis and ocean drift modelling combined with population projections, we show that the probability of randomly reaching Sahul by any route is <5% until ≥40 adults are ‘washed off’ an island at least once every 20 years. We then demonstrate that choosing a time of departure and making minimal headway (0.5 knots) toward a destination greatly increases the likelihood of arrival. While drift modelling demonstrates the existence of ‘bottleneck’ crossings on all routes, arrival via New Guinea is more likely than via northwestern Australia. We conclude that anatomically modern humans had the capacity to plan and make open-sea voyages lasting several days by at least 50,000 years ago.
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The first anatomically modern human populations to arrive in Island Southeast Asia most likely encountered a variety of hominin populations, no matter which route they took to enter Sahul.
“Nonetheless, the current fossil and archaeological records, together mounting genetic evidence from across ISEA, point to the widespread presence of archaic hominins east of Wallace's Line 26 , and indicate that the first AMH populations to arrive in ISEA most likely encountered a variety of hominin populations, no matter which route they took to enter Sahul 4752 .”
From Widespread Denisovan ancestry in Island Southeast Asia but no evidence of substantial super-archaic hominin admixture (2021) · cites this paper as [52]
The Introduction (page unavailable) says pre-modern hominins reached some western Wallacean islands before modern humans and describes northern and southern routes into Sahul. The Results (page unavailable) identify evidence from Sulawesi and Flores, but do not establish that the first modern humans encountered a variety of hominin populations on either route. (LLM, conf=0.83)
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GLOBAL CHOKE POINTS MAY LINK SEA LEVEL AND HUMAN SETTLEMENT AT THE LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM
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Establishing the efficacy of reed-bundle rafts in the paleolithic colonization of the Ryukyu Islands
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Stone‐flaking technology at Leang Bulu Bettue, South Sulawesi, Indonesia
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A demographic test of accidental versus intentional island colonization by Pleistocene humans
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School of Rocks: a Transmission Time Investment Model for Pleistocene Lithic Technology
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The Southern Route to Sahul: Modern Human Dispersal and Adaptation in the Pleistocene
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A different paradigm for the colonisation of Sahul
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Perkembangan Teknologi Artefak Serpih Batu Pada Paruh Awal Holosen di Leang Batti, Sulawesi Selatan
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Climate Change, Migration and Health
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What Does DNA Tell Us about Past Connections and the Settlement of Sahul?
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Modelling the Pleistocene colonisation of Eastern Mediterranean islandscapes
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An incredible journey: the first people to arrive in Australia came in large numbers, and on purpose
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- Authors
- Bird, M. I., Condie, S. A., O’Connor, S., O’Grady, D., Reepmeyer, C., Ulm, S., Zega, M., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C. J. A.
- Affiliations
- James Cook University (AU)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Flinders University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Bird, Michael I.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2019-06-17
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 8220-8220
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6579762
- OpenAlex
- W2953120749
- Cited by
- 114
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 5
- FWCI
- 79.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (CE170100015, FL140100044, FT120100656)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Geography, Planning and Development › Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Maritime and Coastal Archaeology
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology
- Keywords
- Wallacea, population projections, sea-level lowstand, anatomically modern humans, New Guinea, northwestern Australia, Aru Islands, human dispersal
- MeSH terms
- Archaeology, Australia, Humans, New Guinea, Oceans and Seas, Human Migration
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