Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models
Open accessAbstract
The Asian tiger mosquito ( Aedes albopictus ), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.
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Increasing temperatures in Europe have allowed the widespread establishment of exotic, daybiting mosquito species such as Ae. albopictus.
“Finally, increasing temperatures in Europe also allowed the widespread establishment of exotic, daybiting mosquito species such as Ae. albopictus [79–81], which is an important potential vector for D. immitis and D. repens and the establishment of the species in numerous European regions has been linked to increased Dirofilaria circulation [22].”
From Vectors, host range, and spatial distribution of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens in Europe: a systematic review (2025) · cites this paper as [81]
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- Authors
- Oliveira, S., Rocha, J., Sousa, C. A., & Capinha, C.
- Affiliations
- University of Lisbon (PT)
- Universidade Nova de Lisboa (PT)
- Corresponding author
- Capinha, César
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2021-05-10
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 9916-9916
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8110805
- OpenAlex
- W3161144041
- Cited by
- 87
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 9
- FWCI
- 10.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (PTDC/GES -OUT/30210/2017)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Keywords
- Aedes albopictus, species distribution modeling, habitat suitability, climate change, range expansion, dengue vector, Zika virus, model consensus, Europe, Iberian Peninsula
- MeSH terms
- Zika Virus Infection, Mosquito Vectors, Aedes, Animals, Computer Simulation, Dengue, Europe, Models, Biological, Climate Change, Introduced Species, Epidemiological Monitoring, Animal Distribution, Ecological Parameter Monitoring
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