Seasonal trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and mortality in the United States and Europe
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Abstract
Determining whether SARS-CoV-2 exhibits seasonality like other respiratory viruses is critical for public health planning. We evaluated whether COVID-19 rates follow a seasonal pattern using time series models. We used time series decomposition to extract the annual seasonal component of COVID-19 case, hospitalization, and mortality rates from March 2020 through December 2022 for the United States and Europe. Models were adjusted for a country-specific stringency index to account for confounding by various interventions. Despite year-round disease activity, we identified seasonal spikes in COVID-19 from approximately November through April for all outcomes and in all countries. Our results support employing annual preventative measures against SARS-CoV-2, such as administering seasonal booster vaccines in a similar timeframe as those in place for influenza. Whether certain high-risk individuals may need more than one COVID-19 vaccine booster dose each year will depend on factors like vaccine durability against severe illness and levels of year-round disease activity.
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Seasonal trends in COVID-19 cases are more pronounced in European countries than in countries such as Israel and Qatar, which may affect VE estimates.
“Another reason to include only European studies is that seasonal trends in COVID-19 cases are more pronounced than in countries such as Israel and Qatar [13, 14], which may also affect the VE estimate.”
From Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of European studies published up to 22 January 2024 (2025) · cites this paper as [13]
The Results and Discussion report seasonal spikes in COVID-19 cases in Europe from approximately November through April. The paper does not compare Europe with Israel or Qatar, and its Discussion says the findings are not generalizable beyond the United States and Europe. It discusses vaccine timing, but not whether these seasonal differences affect vaccine-effectiveness estimates. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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“Another reason to include only European studies is that seasonal trends in COVID-19 cases are more pronounced than in countries such as Israel and Qatar [13, 14], which may also affect the VE estimate.”
- Authors
- Wiemken, T. L., Khan, F., Puzniak, L., Yang, W., Simmering, J., Polgreen, P., Nguyen, J. L., Jodar, L., & McLaughlin, J. M.
- Affiliations
- Pfizer (United States) (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- University of Iowa (US)
- Corresponding author
- Wiemken, Timothy L.
- McLaughlin, John M.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2023-03-08
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 3886-3886
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9994397
- OpenAlex
- W4323652706
- Cited by
- 138
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 62 · 2023: 14
- FWCI
- 29.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Pfizer
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal variation, seasonal patterns, COVID-19 cases, hospitalization, mortality, time series decomposition, stringency index, booster vaccination, vaccine durability, respiratory viruses, United States, Europe
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, Europe, Hospitalization, Humans, Immunization, Secondary, Seasons, United States
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